Since humanity began harnessing nuclear energy in the second half of the 20th century, debates over its safety and feasibility have never ceased. The first nuclear power plant was launched in 1954 in the city of Obninsk, Moscow Oblast. At the time, it seemed to be a panacea for all energy problems-a virtually inexhaustible source of power. However, things turned out to be more complicated. Despite stringent safety measures, nuclear power plants (NPPs) have proven to be highly hazardous in the event of operational failures. The debate between supporters and opponents of nuclear energy intensified after a series of well-known accidents: in Saint-Laurent, France (1969); Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania, USA (1979); the Chernobyl disaster in 1986; and the Fukushima disaster in Japan (2011), among others. Even such high-profile incidents, however, have not diminished the interest in cheaper energy sources. Humans tend to dismiss negative possibilities, assuming that “it won’t happen to us.”
Interest in nuclear power has grown particularly in Central and Middle Asian countries, largely due to the region’s lack of powerful rivers and sufficient fossil fuel resources. Against this backdrop, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev approved an agreement with Russia for the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) in Uzbekistan, with a total capacity of 2,400 MW. The planned facility is expected to provide nearly one-fifth of the country's total electricity consumption. However, as Uzbekistan is located in a seismically active zone, the construction raises concerns both within the republic and beyond its borders. Russian specialists from the state corporation Rosatom claim that the new plant will feature next-generation 3+ reactors, which can withstand earthquakes with magnitudes up to 9. Additionally, they assert that the reactor casing will include reinforced protective structures capable of preventing damage both internally and externally. The design, they claim, can endure a direct airplane crash, explosions, and other shocks.
Sergei Bobylev, Sputnik,Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
Construction of the NPP began in the fall of 2024, and the first nuclear power plant in Central Asia is expected to be operational by 2028. The project includes six reactors, each with a capacity of 55 MW. In addition to Rosatom, other companies are actively involved in the project. Chinese firms have agreed to supply turbines and generators, as well as technology for dry cooling towers. Furthermore, negotiations are ongoing with Hungarian and other European companies for the supply of auxiliary equipment. According to Uzbek officials, this small-scale nuclear power plant is just the beginning-by 2030, another nuclear plant is planned, which will significantly alter the country's energy balance. Small reactors will be used to stabilize operations with renewable energy sources, thereby reducing dependence on coal and gas.
However, the history of earthquakes in the region-including recent ones in the Fergana and Jizzakh regions-makes local residents skeptical about the absolute safety of operating NPPs. Although nuclear power is a low-carbon energy source, environmental concerns persist. Given Uzbekistan’s climate and water resources, there are fears about the long-term impact of NPPs on ecosystems and water supply, particularly due to the cooling requirements of reactors.
The construction of nuclear power plants also carries the risk of environmental contamination in the event of an accident. Since the planned facility is located just 40 kilometers from Kazakhstan’s border, any negative consequences from potential malfunctions would affect not only Uzbekistan but also Kazakhstan. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has stated, "We need clean nuclear energy." In 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed building a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan using Russian technology. By September 2021, during a speech at the Eastern Economic Forum, Tokayev acknowledged that "it is time to seriously consider the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan." However, the country has yet to determine the location, size, and capacity of the future plant.
Kazakhstan is in a more advantageous position compared to its neighbors. The country holds the world’s second-largest reserves of uranium, amounting to more than 700,000 tons. The main obstacle to NPP construction has been the declining cost of renewable energy sources. According to experts, electricity generated from solar power plants is four times cheaper than that from nuclear power plants (14 tenge, or 0.03 US cents, per kilowatt-hour at the last auction compared to 12.35 US cents from nuclear energy). This raises the question: "Is it worth the risk and the enormous investment for uncertain benefits?"
Photo: Uranium
However, the issue remains open, particularly since a consortium involving China, Russia, France, and South Korea is interested in constructing an NPP in Kazakhstan. This would mean dependence on foreign suppliers for equipment, fuel, and technology. For Russia, nuclear energy in Central Asia is not just business but also a powerful geopolitical tool. Rosatom’s projects in the region strengthen economic ties and create long-term reliance on Russian technologies and nuclear fuel supplies.
Against this backdrop, competition among various stakeholders is intensifying. The U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan, Jonathan Henick, has urged the country to consider American partners. France has proposed its own technologies. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Energy, Almassadam Satkaliyev, has reached agreements with Chinese companies.
Despite the well-known drawbacks of nuclear power, it offers notable advantages: while construction is costly, operational expenses are lower. In the long term, nuclear energy can be more economically viable than renewables. Ensuring energy independence and sustainable development requires the creation of a national industrial and scientific base. By choosing Russia as a key partner, regional countries gain access to proven technology, stable energy supplies, infrastructure support, and opportunities to train qualified local personnel. However, this also increases dependency on Moscow, which could become a serious political challenge over time.
At the same time, opting for Western technologies entails significant economic risks. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan is wary of expanding Chinese influence. Despite its vast size and natural resources, the country is still struggling to determine its strategic economic and political alliances. Russia and China are geographically close, while the West is far away and has limited ability to protect its interests in Central Asia. Given the new U.S. foreign policy direction outlined by President Donald Trump, Russia’s role in the region is likely to grow. The era of a unipolar world is fading, and new players are emerging on the global stage-ones with whom Central Asian nations will have to establish new relationships.
