By Samir Muradov
The recent situation involving the sharp statements by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko regarding Armenia, as well as the Armenian side’s response, highlights several important aspects for Yerevan to consider. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical shifts and local tensions in the South Caucasus, this confrontation can serve as a lesson for Armenia's future diplomatic and foreign policy strategy.
In his remarks, President Lukashenko emphasized several key points that, despite their emotional tone, hold rational significance. Lukashenko accused Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of "flirting with the EU" and "turning Russia against himself." While these statements may appear harsh and accusatory at first glance, they should be viewed as a warning about the risks of disrupting the geopolitical balance.
Armenia’s history shows that the country has always existed in a complex environment where neighboring states and major global players-Russia, the European Union, Türkiye, and Iran-compete to strengthen their positions. Armenia’s geographic location makes it a natural crossroads of interests, requiring exceptional caution in choosing its foreign policy course. Lukashenko stressed that unilateral alignment with one player, whether the West or the East, could lead to isolation and a loss of trust from other partners. According to the Belarusian leader, Pashinyan has "surrounded himself with enemies" and "risks destroying the country."
These words underscore the need for Yerevan to reassess its approach to building alliances to avoid further political and economic crises.
One of the most sensitive aspects of Armenia’s external relations remains the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Lukashenko claimed that "Pashinyan abandoned Nagorno-Karabakh," leading to a loss of influence in the region. Armenia must focus on carefully analyzing past events and resist the temptation to place all blame for failures on external forces. Responsibility lies primarily with internal mistakes, and acknowledging them can be the first step toward rebuilding trust both domestically and with international partners.
Another critical element of Armenia’s foreign policy strategy is its role in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Both Belarus and Armenia are members of this organization, yet the tensions between them highlight a crisis of trust within the bloc. Lukashenko has repeatedly emphasized the importance of stability in the Caucasus and preventing a new war, aligning with the CSTO’s primary goals. Armenia should recognize that the CSTO remains an important platform for ensuring security, despite criticism of its effectiveness. Instead of deepening disagreements with allies, Yerevan should seek common ground and leverage Belarus’s experience in mediation and compromise.
The Armenian response to Lukashenko's statements took the form of street protests, including incidents where the Belarusian embassy in Yerevan was pelted with potatoes, eggs, and tomatoes. Such actions cannot be called productive, as they only heighten tensions and undermine diplomatic relations. These reactions reveal a lack of strategic approach and diplomatic composure, which does not help in addressing the challenges the country faces.
Lukashenko’s call to "prevent war in the Caucasus" should serve as a guiding principle for shaping Armenia’s foreign policy strategy. Diplomacy requires calm, strategic thinking, and a willingness to engage in dialogue, rather than impulsive actions that can worsen the situation.
Despite the harshness of Lukashenko's statements, they contain valuable lessons for Armenia. Belarus exemplifies a pragmatic approach to international politics that Armenia could adopt. Instead of retaliating, Yerevan should focus on developing a long-term strategy that strengthens the country and avoids repeating past mistakes.
In the face of high turbulence in the region, Armenia can use criticism as a catalyst for reforms aimed at ensuring a sustainable future. A rational approach, dialogue, and constructive solutions will help Yerevan not only maintain but improve its position, turning challenges into opportunities for growth.
