By trying to reshape the European defense market, French President Emmanuel Macron has taken on a mission that is as ambitious as it is risky. Determined to wean EU countries off American military hardware, Macron is urging European allies to “buy local,” positioning French and European systems as viable - even preferable - alternatives to U.S. defense giants.
But what looks like a strategic push for autonomy could end up destabilizing regions far beyond Europe.
Macron’s recent call for EU nations to ditch U.S.-made Patriot missiles in favor of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T, or to consider Dassault’s Rafale over the F-35, was more than an appeal to European unity. It was a salvo in a brewing transatlantic arms rivalry. His message was clear: stop feeding America’s military-industrial complex and invest in a truly sovereign European defense.
Anti-missile system SAMP/T. Photo credit: Reuters
This argument might resonate in Brussels or Paris. But Europe’s military hardware doesn’t come with what Washington offers as standard: a security guarantee backed by U.S. power. That’s why countries like the Netherlands and Belgium remain committed to the F-35. Portugal, too, is hesitating - caught between political loyalty to NATO and Macron’s calls for strategic reorientation.
Macron understands that patriotism alone won’t win contracts. That’s why he’s pressing French defense firms to cut through red tape and lower production costs. But even a more competitive price tag won’t be enough unless France can convince buyers that it’s willing and able to back up its hardware with geopolitical muscle.
The challenge is especially stark under Donald Trump’s presidency. Macron’s defense diplomacy may play well in Europe, but it’s unlikely to charm Washington. Trump’s “America First” doctrine leaves little room for what he may see as European freeloading or competition. A misstep here could provoke a retaliatory response that shakes the transatlantic alliance.
And yet Macron is pushing ahead. He’s floated the idea of deploying European forces to Ukraine - cautiously framed as a training initiative, but unmistakably a signal of strategic intent. At the same time, he dismissed Vladimir Putin’s proposed ceasefire terms as unacceptable, accusing Moscow of trying to freeze the conflict and legitimize territorial occupation.
All of this points to a France eager to assert itself on the global stage. Macron’s goal isn’t just to sell more Rafales - it’s to redefine Europe’s role in global security. But in doing so, he risks projecting power in the wrong places, in the wrong ways.
Take the South Caucasus.
In recent months, France has deepened its military cooperation with Armenia - a country that is still reeling from its defeat in the 2020 Karabakh war and continues to engage in provocative behavior along the border with Azerbaijan. Framed as a response to an alleged Azerbaijani threat, this militarization is being quietly enabled by French arms exports.
Photo credit: hetq.am
This policy isn’t just economically motivated - it’s strategic. Paris sees Yerevan not only as a customer but as a geopolitical foothold in a volatile region. But by supplying weapons to Armenia, France risks becoming an active participant in a regional conflict that could spiral far beyond its control.
Reports from the region suggest Armenian units, now equipped with modern French systems, are showing increased military assertiveness. Tensions are rising, and the potential for escalation is real. What Macron presents as “support for a partner” may in fact be fueling instability - all while undermining efforts for a peaceful resolution.
France’s rhetoric of peace and diplomacy is increasingly hard to square with its actions. If Paris is truly committed to stability in the South Caucasus, it must recognize that arms sales to one side - particularly one engaged in military provocations - are not a neutral act. They are a statement. And that statement could have long-term consequences for France’s credibility as a mediator and for the EU’s broader role in regional peacebuilding.
Photo credit: aze.media
In his quest to establish France as a leader in Europe’s defense renaissance, Macron may be overreaching. Building a competitive defense industry is a worthy goal. But doing so by stoking tensions in fragile regions is not leadership - it’s shortsighted ambition.
If Macron wants to sell Europe’s arsenal to the world, he’ll need to offer more than jets and missiles. He’ll need to prove that France, and by extension Europe, is a reliable and responsible security partner. Until then, Washington’s security umbrella - for all its faults - remains hard to compete with.
