Central Asia, rich in natural resources, has emerged over the past decades as a key arena for global power competition. Today, however, this struggle extends beyond traditional energy resources such as oil and gas, encompassing a far more complex and ambitious field-nuclear energy.
The nations in the region, aiming to address their energy challenges, ensure sustainable development, and bolster independence, view nuclear energy as a strategic tool to achieve these objectives. Yet, the region’s energy infrastructure is severely deteriorated, including both power plants and grids. The level of wear and tear has reached critical thresholds, and existing capacities are insufficient to meet growing demand. This situation is particularly pronounced in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. “These systems were not created in the post-Soviet period but were inherited and operated without development,” notes Kazakh political scientist Petr Svoik.
The development of nuclear energy in Central Asia represents not only a technological breakthrough but also a significant element of global geopolitics. Russia, the West, and China are actively involved in this process, offering their technologies, investments, and political support. Each party seeks to strengthen its influence in the region by providing Central Asian countries with access to advanced nuclear technologies while creating long-term dependencies that shape the region’s strategic future.
Russia, the West, and China: Competing Interests
Russia, leveraging its robust nuclear industry and extensive experience in building nuclear power plants, promotes cooperation through proven solutions. Rosatom is already actively working in Uzbekistan and conducting negotiations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
The West, by contrast, advances alternative approaches, including American and French technologies, offering the region a choice fraught with political and economic challenges.
China increasingly asserts itself in the region’s nuclear energy market, presenting cost-effective solutions and strategic partnerships in exchange for strengthened influence.
Central Asian countries face a complex choice: on one hand, they aspire to independence, technological advancement, and solutions to their energy problems; on the other, they must navigate the competing interests of major global powers. The impact of these choices on the sovereignty, economic development, and international standing of these nations will determine the region's future for decades to come.
Current Realities and Challenges
The energy infrastructure of Central Asia is in a critical state of disrepair, as noted by numerous experts. For instance, Svoik highlights that significant investments are needed to modernize existing facilities and construct new ones. However, the lack of professional institutions to regulate tariffs, conduct audits, and design long-term energy supply schemes presents a significant barrier. Governments must either raise tariffs, which risks public discontent, or attract external investments, potentially leading to debt dependency.
Nuclear energy offers an opportunity for technological and production development but comes with risks, including dependency on foreign technologies and resources. For example, the construction of the Balkhash Nuclear Power Plant in Kazakhstan is likely to involve a consortium including China, Russia, France, and South Korea, leading to reliance on imported equipment, fuel, and technology. Without a robust domestic industrial base, the region’s countries risk becoming secondary players in the energy landscape.
Geopolitical Dimensions
For Russia, nuclear energy in Central Asia is not just business but also a powerful geopolitical tool. Projects such as those led by Rosatom strengthen economic ties and create long-term dependence on Russian technology and nuclear fuel supplies.
The West, aiming to counterbalance Russia’s influence, promotes its own technologies and renewable energy options. U.S. and French representatives have actively lobbied Central Asian states to consider partnerships with their firms, emphasizing energy diversification and sustainability.
China, meanwhile, has expanded its presence through economic partnerships. Agreements between Kazakhstan and Chinese firms exemplify Beijing’s ambition to solidify its influence in the region through competitive nuclear technology offerings.
The Path Forward: Regional Integration
Experts like Svoik and Bahktier Ergashev, Director of the Center for Research Initiatives «Mano» (Uzbekistan), stress the necessity of regional integration to overcome infrastructure challenges. Rebuilding the Unified Energy Ring of Central Asia, an initiative supported by Uzbekistan and joined by Tajikistan in 2024, could stabilize seasonal fluctuations and reduce system vulnerabilities. This integration would enable a collective approach to developing and managing energy infrastructure.
While nuclear energy can address pressing energy issues, it requires extensive regional cooperation and investment in local scientific and industrial capabilities. Only through such integration can Central Asia reduce its reliance on external powers and secure sustainable development for the future.
Technology Choices and Development Scenarios
The decisions of Central Asian countries regarding partnerships for nuclear energy development are shaping the region’s future. The selected partner influences not only the technological and economic trajectory but also the geopolitical alignment of these nations.
1. Scenario: Russian Dominance
Choosing Russia as the primary partner offers tested technologies, reliable energy supply, and support for infrastructure projects. This collaboration benefits from Russia’s vast experience and established nuclear expertise through Rosatom. However, increased reliance on Moscow raises concerns about long-term political dependency, potentially constraining the sovereignty of Central Asian countries.
2. Scenario: Western Partnership
Western technologies stand out for their innovation and alignment with modern sustainability standards. For instance, Kazakhstan, after conducting public discussions and a referendum, opted to construct a nuclear power plant with potential Western involvement. However, adopting Western technologies involves significant financial investments and higher upfront costs. The economic risks of this choice may create challenges for states already grappling with limited resources and social pressures.
3. Scenario: Integration with China
China presents itself as a pragmatic partner, offering competitive technologies and financing. Kazakhstan, for example, has shown interest in China’s nuclear capabilities by conducting site visits to Chinese nuclear facilities. While Chinese partnerships provide accessible funding and feasible solutions, they also risk creating long-term economic dependencies. This is particularly concerning for countries aiming to strengthen their independence in energy policymaking.
Nuclear Energy as a Strategic Imperative
As noted by Director of the Center for Research Initiatives «Mano» (Uzbekistan) Bakhtiyor Ergashev, nuclear energy is increasingly seen not as a luxury but as an essential solution to the region’s energy challenges. Both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan face significant energy deficits due to growing economies, population increases, and industrial expansion.
Uzbekistan, for example, is heavily reliant on thermal power plants fueled by natural gas. With gas reserves dwindling and the rising economic inefficiency of using gas for energy rather than gas-chemical industries, alternative solutions are urgently needed. Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, remain constrained by climate variability and a lack of recycling technologies for equipment.
In this context, the construction of nuclear power plants (NPPs) emerges as a strategically justified option. The European Union, previously skeptical of nuclear energy, now recognizes it as "green" due to its zero carbon emissions and long-term sustainability.
Developments in the Region
• Uzbekistan has signed contracts for the construction of a small modular reactor (SMR) plant featuring six reactors, representing a shift towards innovative nuclear solutions.
• Kazakhstan has formally endorsed nuclear energy development through a national referendum, reflecting public and governmental support for this transition.
Implications for the Future
The development of nuclear energy in Central Asia will profoundly influence the region’s energy landscape, sovereignty, and integration into global geopolitics. Whether aligning with Russia, the West, or China, Central Asian countries must balance immediate needs with long-term strategic objectives, considering energy security, economic independence, and technological autonomy.
The road ahead is complex, but nuclear energy is poised to play a pivotal role in addressing energy deficits and fostering sustainable growth in this geopolitically sensitive region.
Central Asian Countries’ Decisions: Consensus Through Dialogue
Central Asian nations have adopted diverse approaches to decision-making regarding nuclear power development, reflecting their unique priorities and challenges:
• Kazakhstan conducted extensive public and expert consultations, culminating in a referendum. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized that developing nuclear energy is a strategic necessity for ensuring the country’s energy independence.
• Uzbekistan opted for diversified partnerships, selecting Rosatom for a project in the Jizzakh region while remaining open to collaboration with Japan, the United States, and South Korea.
• Kyrgyzstan, with its specific geographic conditions, focused on small modular reactors (SMRs). Negotiations with Rosatom began after public hearings and expert evaluations endorsed this direction.
• Tajikistan, leveraging its hydropower potential, views nuclear power as a means to diversify its export capabilities.
Benefits of Nuclear Energy for the Region
Nuclear power plants (NPPs) offer solutions to several pressing energy challenges:
1. Energy Stability: Unlike hydropower, nuclear plants are unaffected by weather conditions, a critical advantage in regions with seasonal fluctuations.
2. Economic Efficiency: While construction costs are high, the operational costs of NPPs are lower over the long term, providing a sustainable energy source.
3. Reduced CO₂ Emissions: Nuclear energy decreases reliance on hydrocarbons, aligning with global sustainability goals.
4. Regional Cooperation: Energy projects can strengthen economic ties among Central Asian countries, fostering greater integration.
Conclusions: The Choice Between Dependence and Independence
Nuclear energy represents more than a solution to the energy crisis in Central Asia-it is a pivotal factor in the region’s geopolitical strategy. The choice of partners-Russia, the West, or China-will shape the future of Central Asia, influencing its economic and political landscape.
To ensure successful nuclear energy projects, Central Asian countries must:
• Balance external influences to avoid unilateral dependence.
• Conduct transparent consultations with the public and experts.
• Invest in workforce training and technology localization.
Unified Efforts for a Sustainable Future
The energy ambitions of Central Asia are not merely about technological selection but represent a strategic decision that will define the region’s position on the global geopolitical stage.
Collaboration with Rosatom offers access to proven technologies and mitigates risks related to energy instability. However, Central Asian countries are actively diversifying partnerships to reduce geopolitical dependence and harness the benefits of competition among major powers.
For nuclear energy to become a sustainable solution for the region’s challenges, Central Asian countries must work collectively to modernize infrastructure, adhere to stringent safety standards, and revive regional energy integration. Restoring the Unified Energy Ring could further enhance the stability of the region’s energy systems, ensuring reliable power supply for all its citizens.
