The state visit of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, to the Kyrgyz Republic on March 12-13, 2025, was a significant event for the entire Central Asian region.
The primary outcome of the negotiations was the signing of the Treaty on the Delimitation and Demarcation of the Kyrgyz-Tajik Border-a document that concluded years of negotiations on territorial boundaries.
Photo credit: Xinhua news
By signing this treaty, Bishkek and Dushanbe effectively resolved one of the most contentious and long-standing disputes that had persisted for 23 years, often leading to periodic armed clashes.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov described the agreement as a landmark historical event:
“I am confident that the signing of the Treaty on the State Border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will be seen as a historic milestone, welcomed with enthusiasm by our nations and the broader international community.
This step will significantly contribute to strengthening security, stability, and sustainable development-not only for our two countries but for the entire Central Asian region.”
From the Tajik side, Emomali Rahmon also emphasized the importance of the treaty:
“Today, we are making a historic decision regarding the borders between our countries. The border treaty will establish a strong foundation for further strengthening intergovernmental relations.”
Photo credit: Press Service of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic
Additionally, the long-closed border crossings "Kairagach" and "Kyzyl-Bel" were officially reopened, having remained shut for nearly four years.
The reopening of the border and the resumption of air routes between Dushanbe-Bishkek and Bishkek-Khujand are expected to foster not only economic ties but also humanitarian rapprochement.
However, the signed agreement does not eliminate all potential risks. Issues concerning the rights of ethnic Kyrgyz in Tajikistan and ethnic Tajiks in Kyrgyzstan remain a focal point, and the absence of a clear security enforcement mechanism could lead to future conflicts.
Expert Assessments
Igor Shestakov, Director of the Center for Expert Initiatives "Oy Ordo," provided an exclusive commentary for The Caspian Post, noting that the border delimitation and demarcation agreement signed by Presidents Sadyr Japarov and Emomali Rahmon is indeed a historic achievement.
“This longstanding dispute, unresolved since the 20th century, has finally reached its logical conclusion. A diplomatic resolution to the border conflict between the two nations is a key milestone.”
Photo credit: bulak.kg
According to the expert, the importance of the signed documents is underscored by the fact that over the past few years, more than 200 conflicts have erupted along the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, escalating into full-scale military clashes in 2021-2022. These violent confrontations resulted in dozens of casualties and forced thousands of people to flee their homes.
“This issue extended beyond just Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; it was also a concern for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), to which both countries belong, as well as for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It is no coincidence that agreements reached at the state commission level received positive evaluations from these organizations. This treaty enhances regional security, particularly given the proximity of the conflict zone to Afghanistan’s borders.”
Tajik expert Sherali Rezayon emphasized the regional significance of the agreement and its impact on Central Asia’s integration processes.
In his view, assessing risks and threats to Central Asia involves both internal and external dimensions. The unresolved border issue between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan was among the most visible threats to regional security.
“Today, it can be stated that this challenge is becoming less relevant for Dushanbe, Bishkek, and the Central Asian region as a whole. The intra-regional process of defining state borders has now been completed. Consequently, all five Central Asian nations have officially formalized their borders, marking the end of a sensitive chapter in their modern history.
It is reasonable to assume that resolving the border issue between Dushanbe and Bishkek will positively influence Central Asia’s integration efforts and strengthen regional cooperation. The de-escalation of this challenge opens new opportunities for the region to enhance its geopolitical agency in contemporary international relations,” Rezayon stated.
The Challenge of Implementation
Despite the treaty’s signing, Igor Shestakov highlighted that its practical implementation remains the most crucial task.
“The leaders of both countries demonstrated political will by resolving legal issues. However, their governments now face the significant challenge of ensuring that relocated residents receive the benefits stipulated in the agreement and do not encounter socio-economic difficulties,” the political analyst noted.
The Kyrgyz expert also explained why the negotiation process was conducted behind closed doors:
“Sadyr Japarov specifically emphasized that the state commissions’ negotiations were held in a closed format. This was done to prevent certain political forces and media from exploiting the talks for populist purposes or demonizing the settlement process.”
Shestakov stressed that the information war surrounding the Kyrgyz-Tajik conflict was waged not only within the two countries but also at the international level, where certain forces sought to weaken the CSTO’s influence in Central Asia.
“Undoubtedly, discussions in the media and on social networks will continue for a long time about whether the agreement reflects the national interests of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. But it is crucial to understand that this signed document lays the foundation for long-term peace. Its success depends on how effectively the two states implement it,” the Kyrgyz political analyst concluded.
Sherali Rezayon further noted to The Caspian Post that the most critical aspect of resolving the Kyrgyz-Tajik border issue was that it was finalized on a bilateral basis without the involvement of third-party mediators or international organizations.
This approach, he argued, reflects the maturity and foresight of the political leadership in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as they have, in a long-term historical perspective, freed their countries from the burden of being indebted to any external actors in resolving this issue.
Photo credit: oxu.az
“In my view, the key to success in this case lies precisely in the bilateral nature of the negotiations. It demonstrates the ability of Dushanbe and Bishkek to reach agreements on this highly sensitive issue while minimizing its use as a tool of influence in both domestic and foreign policy,” the Tajik expert emphasized.
Economic Cooperation: Prospects and Challenges
Beyond resolving the border issue, Bishkek and Dushanbe have prioritized the development of economic ties.
During the visit, fourteen additional bilateral agreements and memorandums of cooperation were signed in key sectors. These included agreements on access to water management and energy facilities, the construction and use of roads, as well as the development of intersections. Cooperation agreements were also signed in agriculture, veterinary and phytosanitary safety, industry, and new technologies.
A memorandum was reached on the development of energy-efficient technologies and seismic resilience. Programs were established for youth policy and the development of physical culture and sports for the period from 2025 to 2027. Another important step was the agreement to establish sister-city relations between Bishkek and Dushanbe, along with a cooperation program between Chon-Alai District in Kyrgyzstan and Lakhsh District in Tajikistan.
Further agreements were signed on cooperation between Osh Region in Kyrgyzstan and the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan. A protocol was established for customs information exchange, and a memorandum was signed on combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism. Additionally, an agreement on export trade cooperation was concluded.
Both countries also decided to increase their trade turnover to 500 million US dollars. Many experts consider this goal realistic, yet the practical implementation of these agreements remains an open question.
Symbolic Steps and Economic Expectations
Political analyst Igor Shestakov emphasizes that, beyond its political significance, the border agreement carries substantial economic implications. He noted that the reopening of border crossings, which had been closed for years due to military conflicts, is a symbolic step that signals a return to active bilateral relations.
Shestakov also highlighted that restoring transport links and resuming flights between Bishkek and Dushanbe will create new opportunities for cross-border business and trade. He pointed out that for Tajikistan, the development of border trade is crucial, as Tajik-produced goods are in demand in the markets of the Eurasian Economic Union. For Kyrgyzstan, this presents an opportunity to improve the economic situation in Batken Region, where many residents have traditionally sought employment abroad.
Challenges in Implementation
Despite these positive developments, some experts remain skeptical about the full realization of the agreements. They point to the historically complex relations between business communities in both countries as a potential obstacle. A Kyrgyz economist questioned whether both sides are genuinely prepared to fulfill their commitments, stressing that reopening borders and resuming flights is only the first step and not a definitive solution to all economic challenges.
Water-energy cooperation remains another contentious issue. The CASA-1000 project, on which both countries rely, has yet to provide clear guarantees of mutual benefit. Kyrgyzstan, as an upstream country in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins, continues to express concerns about how water distribution will be managed, particularly during drought years.
According to Tajik political analyst Sherali Rezayon, resolving the border issue has paved the way for normalizing bilateral relations and will have a significant impact on cooperation, free movement of people, and capital flow in the near future. He emphasized that the strategic, political, trade-economic, water-energy, transport-transit, and cultural-humanitarian aspects of the agreement collectively enhance the security potential of both nations.
Rezayon believes that, in the near future, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan could initiate the development of a strategic partnership treaty. He suggests that this treaty could be signed during a reciprocal state visit by the President of Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan, further solidifying long-term good-neighborly relations.
The Restoration of Transport Links: A New Stage of Integration
Following the signing of border agreements, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have taken active steps to restore bilateral ties. On March 14, the first direct flight from Dushanbe to Bishkek in four years arrived in the Kyrgyz capital. This event marked an important step toward reestablishing transport links between the two countries, creating new opportunities for trade, tourism, and cultural exchange.
President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov underscored the significance of restoring air travel, stating that the signing of the Treaty on the State Border would contribute to strengthening security, stability, and sustainable development not only for the two nations but for the entire Central Asian region. President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon echoed this sentiment, emphasizing Tajikistan’s commitment to strengthening bilateral ties and calling the border agreement a historic decision.
In addition to air travel, both sides have agreed to further develop road infrastructure, which will provide more favorable conditions for business and trade. This initiative is expected to increase trade volumes and attract more tourists to both countries.
An additional step in strengthening humanitarian ties will be the joint celebration of Nowruz in Khujand on March 31. President Japarov emphasized that cultural initiatives play a key role in fostering good-neighborly relations, highlighting the significance of this upcoming celebration.
Thus, the restoration of air travel and the development of transport corridors between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan symbolize a new era in bilateral relations.
Conclusion: A Step Forward, but How Sustainable?
The signing of the Treaty on the State Border represents an unprecedented step in the history of relations between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. However, the actual implementation of the agreements will require continued political dialogue, active work by intergovernmental commissions, and strict oversight of compliance with the terms.
Only time will tell whether this diplomatic success will serve as a solid foundation for long-term peace and economic growth. However, it is already clear that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are entering a new stage in their relations-one that could reshape the regional landscape and redefine Central Asian cooperation.
