Central Asia, a geopolitically strategic region, continues to face significant political and economic instability. Historical territorial disputes inherited from the Soviet Union still hinder the countries of the region from fully realizing their potential.
However, Central Asia now has a unique opportunity to transform its historically complex region into a model of successful cooperation.
In recent years, progress has been observed in addressing conflicts and fostering mutual trust in response to these challenges. One of the most notable examples is the completion of the delimitation and demarcation of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border in 2024, opening new opportunities for Central Asian integration. This milestone was announced by the heads of the State Committees for National Security of the two countries, Kamchybek Tashiev and Saimumin Yatimov, following a meeting of government delegations in Batken.
The historic agreement between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is not merely the conclusion of a long process of border delimitation. It sends a clear message to the entire region that dialogue and compromise can lead to mutually acceptable solutions that strengthen regional security and lay the groundwork for integration processes.
Nevertheless, the Central Asian summit in Cholpon-Ata (2022) highlighted that full unity remains elusive: Turkmenistan and Tajikistan did not sign the final document, partly due to unresolved issues.
These developments raise a critical question: Can Central Asia overcome its borders, both physical and political?
Historical Context of Border Disputes
After gaining independence, the former Soviet republics of Central Asia immediately faced the challenge of establishing new, previously internal but now undefined state borders. These borders were drawn during the Soviet era with little consideration for ethnic or geographic specifics of the region.
As a result, the last two decades have been marked by numerous territorial disputes among Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
These disputes have given rise to inter-state and inter-ethnic conflicts, threatening the security and stability not only of the Ferghana Valley but the entire region.
According to official data, territorial disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have led to regular incidents, including armed clashes. Particularly notable were the events on the border in 2021-2022, which resulted in the deaths of about 100 people during armed conflict.
The problem has been exacerbated by the fact that only a few Central Asian countries have completed the process of border delimitation over the past decades. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan resolved their border issues in the 1990s and early 2000s, but Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan (Ferghana Valley) still face numerous unresolved challenges.
For instance, during a meeting of Central Asian foreign ministers in Samarkand on November 10, 2017, an agreement was signed regarding the convergence of borders between Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
As noted by Kazakhstan"s Foreign Minister Kairat Abdrakhmanov, this document marked the completion of the legal formalization of borders among the three countries:
zbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. It is worth mentioning that Kazakhstan had previously signed similar agreements on border convergence with China and Kyrgyzstan (1999) and with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan (2001).
This progress underscores the potential for Central Asia to address lingering border disputes and move toward greater regional integration.
Mars Sariev, a well-known political analyst in Kyrgyzstan, emphasized in an exclusive commentary for The Caspian Post that the cartographic delineation of the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan marks a significant historical milestone, resolving longstanding territorial disputes between the two nations.
He noted that these disputes, rooted in the Soviet past, have repeatedly led to conflicts and violent clashes.
"I am confident that border issues in Central Asia are nearing their resolution, which in turn could significantly strengthen cooperation in political, economic, and cultural spheres," the expert added.
International Partners and External Factors
The settlement of borders holds strategic importance for several reasons:
1. Conflict Reduction: The Batken example demonstrates that resolving disputed areas reduces the risk of armed confrontations.
2. Economic Cooperation: Successfully addressing contentious issues paves the way for projects like CASA-1000 and expands transport corridors.
3. Trust Building: Effective collaboration between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan lays a foundation for broader regional initiatives.
International forces play a vital role in resolving territorial disputes in Central Asia. China, through its "Belt and Road Initiative," actively invests in infrastructure and energy projects across the region.
The CASA-1000 project, which aims to facilitate electricity transmission between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, serves as a vivid example of how external partners can foster a favorable environment for conflict resolution.
Russia, as a steadfast ally within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), also influences regional stability by providing political and military support.
However, the strategic interests of major powers do not always align with those of Central Asian countries, complicating the situation. The involvement of external players such as China, Russia, and the United States often adds complexity to the coordination of actions within the region.
Water Usage Remains a Contentious Issue
Water resource management continues to be a potential source of discord. Many experts agree that "Central Asia must develop unified approaches to water management; otherwise, regional integration will remain unattainable."
As the region addresses these challenges, cooperation and dialogue remain the cornerstones for fostering stability and achieving sustainable development.
Security expert and veteran of special services Taalaybek Jumadylov has emphasized that the completion of border delimitation and demarcation is undoubtedly a positive step in easing tensions between countries in Central Asia.
He further pointed out that this process not only benefits interstate relations but also removes a factor that external players could have used to destabilize the region.
"Major geopolitical powers and transnational corporations could exploit border issues as a destabilizing factor," noted Jumadylov.
However, he believes that resolving territorial disputes alone is not sufficient for Central Asia to emerge as a significant player on the international stage.
"There are other, more crucial conditions," the expert argued. Firstly, the countries of the region need to establish unified goals. Secondly, there should be relatively equal conditions for nations to participate in integration processes.
This necessity stems from the economic, geographic, and resource disparities among Central Asian states, as well as the diversity of political elites, who are often oriented toward different external vectors. These factors remain substantial barriers to full integration.
Challenges in Water and Energy Resource Management
Jumadylov highlighted contradictions between countries regarding water and energy resources.
"Nations located at the upper reaches of rivers prioritize water as a source of energy, while downstream countries rely on water for drinking supplies and agriculture," he explained.
In his view, these contradictions pose challenges to closer regional cooperation. "The global geopolitical landscape suggests that every country must rely solely on its own strength," he added.
"We must consolidate and focus on internal resources and development because external players cannot guarantee the security and integrity of our nations."
Jumadylov also drew attention to lessons from Syria, noting that even domestic consensus cannot ensure stability without a unified strategy and internal strength to safeguard national interests.
Prospects for a Central Asian Union
With the completion of border delimitation processes, Central Asian countries are poised to take decisive steps toward political and economic integration.
For example, the creation of a Central Asian Union, similar to the European Union, could become a reality only after overcoming several barriers, including political disagreements, competition, and a lack of trust among neighboring states.
Many experts currently advocate for joint economic and cultural projects to strengthen mutual trust. A notable example is the "Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighborliness, and Cooperation for the Development of Central Asia in the 21st Century," signed by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan at the 2022 summit in Cholpon-Ata.
Despite certain difficulties and disagreements, the countries expressed their commitment to enhancing cooperation in energy, transportation, and security.
The resolution of border disputes, such as the Kyrgyz-Tajik agreement, demonstrates the region"s readiness to address complex issues through dialogue.
As analysts have noted, the success of this process could serve as a model for other countries in the region facing similar challenges. Strengthening trust among Central Asian states could pave the way for the creation of a unified economic and political space, marking a significant step toward forming a Central Asian Union.
However, the lack of unanimous consensus among all countries, as evidenced in Cholpon-Ata, underscores the need for continued efforts.
As Kamchybek Tashiev stated, "Today, we are creating not just borders but a new chapter in the history of Central Asia."
The establishment of such unions aligns with the spirit of the times, as the region confronts challenges that demand a collective approach. Resolving border disputes shows that Central Asia has the capacity to develop internal mechanisms to strengthen stability and drive progress.
The future of the region depends on the ability of its leaders to seize this moment and build strong connections that will transform Central Asia into a region defined by cooperation rather than conflict.
