Central Asia is a region where the interests of leading global and regional powers intersect. Its abundant natural resources (especially the currently relevant rare earth metals), strategically important geographic location, and cultural diversity make it one of the key hubs of global politics and economics.
For Russia, Central Asia holds particular significance, being not only an immediate neighbor but also a region with deep historical, cultural, and economic ties.
Amid new geopolitical challenges-including the growing influence of China and Türkiye, as well as increasing interest from the United States and Europe-Russia is striving to maintain its position in the region.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly emphasized that cooperation with Central Asia is a priority of Russia’s foreign policy. His statements reflect the intention to strengthen partnerships in the fields of economy, security, education, and culture.
Central Asia (CA) is becoming an arena of rivalry among global and regional players such as the United States, the European Union, China, Türkiye, and Russia, each applying its own “soft power” strategy.
Note: “The policy of ‘soft power’ involves promoting one’s interests and approaches by persuading and attracting sympathy toward one’s country, based on achievements not only in the material but also in the spiritual and intellectual spheres.”
In the region, countries such as South Korea and Japan are also engaged in this type of work; they have launched the 5+1 strategy. This format of interaction is currently used by the aforementioned major powers as well.
The question of whose policy proves most effective depends on a variety of factors: historical ties, economic benefits, cultural preferences, and local public perception.
Why the Region Is of Interest
Over the past 20 years, the total GDP of Central Asia has grown 7.5 times (from $46 billion to $347 billion). Moreover, the economic growth rates of the region’s states (6.2%) significantly outpaced those of emerging economies (5.3%) and global averages (2.6%), second only to China.
Investors also consider factors related to production costs-access to natural resources and raw materials, as well as logistics and transport accessibility.
In this regard, Central Asia is also of considerable interest for capital investments, as the region holds about 7% of the world’s oil and gas reserves and ranks 10th globally in coal production.
Russia: Emphasis on Historical Heritage and Language
Russia has a clear advantage in the region due to centuries-long ties with Central Asia, especially during the Soviet era.
Leveraging the Russian language as a tool of soft power, Russia actively promotes educational initiatives, including university programs and scholarship opportunities.
Russia makes use of both “soft power” and political and economic instruments to bolster its role in the region. This includes developing trade and economic ties, cooperation within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and supporting Russian-language education and cultural exchange. As Lavrov noted, for Russia, Central Asia is not just about being neighbors but about deep interaction rooted in shared interests and mutual benefit.
Key Instruments:
• Support for the Russian language and educational programs
• Eurasian economic integration through the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)
Russia also plays a key role in regional security issues: three out of the five countries are permanent CSTO members (Uzbekistan is a founding member but has suspended its membership, and Turkmenistan remains outside due to its constitutionally mandated neutral status).
Challenges:
• Declining popularity of the Russian language among younger generations
• Competition from other major players
Nevertheless, Russia effectively uses its cultural and economic ties today but faces constraints related to negative perceptions of its policies in some countries of the region.
Lavrov’s remarks on the prioritization of Central Asia in Russia’s foreign policy are reflected in concrete actions, such as increasing trade turnover, supporting Russian-language educational programs, and advancing infrastructure projects.
“The Russian language is a ‘very strong soft power’ for Russia,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the Primakov Readings forum in November 2023.
“It is a very useful, open, and positive soft power,” the Russian Foreign Minister noted. “Of course, in the countries with which we are friendly, we create Russian language courses. In Central Asia, in Azerbaijan, in Armenia, we have established Russian schools, including some under the programs of our Ministry of Education, as well as branches of Russian universities. I believe this is our main soft power, which we will promote-unlike under-the-table operations where, for example, some employee of a non-governmental organization buys a six-person boat and blows up the Nord Stream pipelines, just hypothetically speaking,” Lavrov emphasized.
According to data presented by Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Andrey Rudenko at the 2nd Central Asian Conference of the Valdai International Discussion Club, between 2008 and 2022, Russia provided over $6.2 billion in assistance to the region’s states.
“Accumulated Russian investments in the region for the period from 2010 to 2021 amount to about $30.5 billion.”
The trade turnover between Russia and Central Asia continues to grow each year. Even the pandemic and its associated restrictions and problems did not affect these figures. According to the Russian diplomat, the trade turnover reached $37 billion in 2021, with average growth at about 30%.
It is also important to remember that more than 4 million Central Asian citizens are constantly residing in Russia. Labor migrants account for about 8% of Russia’s GDP.
Mutual respect and strategic partnership with the region’s countries serve as a foundation for strengthening Russia’s position in Central Asia as a reliable and long-term ally.
Russia continues to demonstrate that, despite the changing world order, its ties with Central Asia remain strong. The key task is not only to preserve these ties but also to adapt them to new realities so that they remain a cornerstone of the region’s stability and prosperity.
The United States: Promoting Democracy and Education
Washington applies “soft power” by promoting democracy, human rights, and education.
Key Instruments:
• Educational programs, such as Fulbright scholarships
• Support for civil society through grants and NGOs
• Development of economic initiatives via USAID-supported projects
Challenges:
• Weak cultural identification of the United States with the region
• Limited involvement in infrastructure projects
The American strategy finds acceptance among some segments of the local elite, but its impact across the entire region is limited.
It is worth noting that, similar to Russia, the Central Asian countries have begun adopting measures and laws that regulate the activities of NGOs (including “foreign agent” status), requiring more transparent reporting to ensure these organizations stay within the boundaries of their stated objectives.
Over the past 30 years, the United States has invested about $44-51 billion in Central Asian countries, according to data presented by Bakyt Omurzakov-a business regulatory advisor and representative of the Center for Asian Leadership-at an investment forum in Bishkek in October 2024.
“From 1994 to 2024, the United States has invested $44-51 billion in Central Asia, 99 percent of which went to Kazakhstan, mainly in the oil and gas and mining industries. The main investors are companies from California, New York, and Texas,” he emphasized.
According to Kyrgyz political scientist Bakyt Zhumagulov, quoted by The Caspian Post, the United States and Europe use a more systematic and institutional approach in exercising their “soft power” in the countries of the region.
This approach is implemented by creating various funds (e.g., Soros Foundation) and non-governmental and non-profit organizations (NGOs and NPOs), which operate in different spheres of state life.
“The collective West has developed strategies for working with Central Asian countries that employ comprehensive approaches. These documents outline objectives aimed at containing Russia and China. The main priorities and foundations of their ‘soft power’ revolve around such concepts as human rights and democracy. The most recent U.S. strategy for Central Asia also mentions supporting the independence of the region’s states,” the political scientist noted.
Analyst Batibek Saipbaev believes that the champion of “soft power” in the region is undoubtedly the United States. According to him, most young people surveyed say they like America, its norms, and way of life.
“They primarily seek to gain a foothold through education, science, and culture, selecting talented young people through various programs. They send them to the United States to live with American families as part of exchange programs, immerse them in life there, and instill the values of that society. Then, these young people return home with a completely different outlook on life. This is how agents of influence emerge peacefully,” Saipbaev told The Caspian Post.
At the same time, political scientist Baykadam Kuramaev notes that the notion “the West is to blame for all our problems” should be dismissed.
“Thanks to them [Western actors], NGOs appeared in Kyrgyzstan and contributed to the development of democracy and freedom of speech in the country, which is why we are still called the island of democracy in Central Asia. This also needs to be appreciated,” the expert added.
He also pointed out that NGOs played a role in ensuring the rights of vulnerable populations are now recognized by all branches of government. Thanks to their painstaking work, Kyrgyzstan has ratified a number of important conventions on the protection of children’s rights and rights of people with disabilities.
However, these organizations are also involved in creating conditions for internal political destabilization and so-called “color revolutions,” where power changes hands unconstitutionally through coups.
In his view, Kyrgyzstan should continue to cooperate with Western countries but remain mindful of national interests and ensure tangible benefits for its society.
The influence of China and Russia in this region compels the United States to develop alternative mechanisms of cooperation. Yet, the impact of U.S. policy in Central Asia is constrained by limited economic involvement and a lack of a clear strategic plan. A CNAS report highlights that Washington has so far failed to effectively consolidate its position in the region.
The authors point out that previous U.S. diplomatic and economic initiatives in Central Asia have not yielded significant results. Competition with China and Russia requires new approaches and a more active financial commitment.
One promising avenue could be supporting the “Middle Corridor” initiative, which links Central Asia to Europe while bypassing Russia and China. This step could reduce the region’s dependence on the two leading powers. The West is now striving to develop in this direction, but it requires significant effort and resources, which are insufficient given the financial costs of supporting Ukraine and Israel-of which only the United States provides significant backing to the latter.
“A Donor Without Influence”: The EU in Central Asia, Sustainable Development and Values
The European Union (EU) has traditionally been seen as a “donor without influence” in Central Asia. The EU’s strategy in the region is often criticized for its general nature, lofty ambitions, and insufficient resource base, which, according to experts, prevents it from achieving long-term goals amid escalating competition for influence in the post-Soviet space.
Central Asian countries account for a very small portion of EU trade-less than 1% of the bloc’s total turnover. Kazakhstan is the EU’s largest trading partner in the region, providing almost 40% of the total turnover and more than half of its exports. Other countries-Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan-lag significantly behind in this regard.
Political and economic instability, heavy reliance on raw materials for exports, and comparatively low integration into the global economy hinder the EU’s efforts. Nonetheless, trade between Central Asia and the EU is gradually increasing, primarily thanks to Kazakhstan.
The European Union places emphasis on “soft power,” allocating resources to educational mobility programs, information campaigns, and cultural exchanges. These approaches stand in contrast to the United States’ military-political activities in the region and China’s economic expansion through the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.
The EU also seeks to learn from its “Eastern Partnership” program to avoid political and economic missteps in engaging with third countries.
The European Union’s approach is based on sustainable development, human rights, and economic integration.
Key Instruments:
• Investments in sustainable development and environmental projects
• Expansion of trade through preferential treatment for regional countries
• Cultural and educational diplomacy
Challenges:
• Limited attention to the political realities of the region
• Insufficient financial resources to compete with China and Russia
While the EU remains an attractive partner for economic cooperation, its influence is overshadowed by that of China and Russia.
As for investments, over the past 10 years, the EU has invested more than €105 billion (about $121.3 billion) in Central Asian countries, accounting for over 40% of total foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region. The EU represents more than one-third of Central Asia’s overall foreign trade volume.
These figures were presented by Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Askar Mamin at the first economic forum in Bishkek (November 2021), where he proposed creating a “European Union-Central Asia” Business Council.
Indeed, EU countries remain strategic trading partners for Central Asian nations, particularly Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s share of the region’s total exports remains considerable. Central Asia’s exports to the EU market largely consist of mineral fuels.
Despite its perceived weakness, the EU retains importance in Central Asia thanks to its long-term strategy, commitment to values, and consistency. However, regional competition is intensifying, and the EU needs to adjust its methods to preserve its influence and enhance mutual benefits for both sides.
China: Economic Expansion Through the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative
China is focusing on economic and infrastructure development in Central Asia, including the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative.
In this regard, China’s approach differs significantly from that of the West. In China’s view, “soft power” should facilitate peaceful coexistence and development of neighboring countries. On this basis, various forms and programs of cooperation are being built.
One will not find in Chinese cooperation programs any explicit directives or actions aimed against any particular country. In contrast, for example, U.S. and UK development and aid programs explicitly state in the budget sections the goal of countering Russia or China.
The main difference lies in the fact that the West uses its “soft power” to weaken countries and foster dependence, whereas China is oriented toward strengthening cooperation and joint development. These represent two fundamentally different approaches to the concept of “soft power” and its implementation in the great powers’ international policies.
China enhances its influence not only through economic might but also via cultural and educational programs. In Central Asia, Confucius Institutes operate actively, offering Chinese language instruction and promoting Chinese culture, as well as providing scholarships to local students.
Nonetheless, this strategy does not meet with universal acceptance. Many experts argue that China’s cultural influence faces resistance among local populations due to fears of losing their own identities. However, given that China is a multinational state, it does not seek to impose its culture but rather offers opportunities for deeper understanding and cooperation.
Additionally, the “Luban Workshop” project, launched in 2016, adds further dimensions to China’s soft power. Workshops established in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan train students in high-demand technical specialties. These programs prepare personnel capable of working with Chinese equipment, thus helping to embed Chinese technologies more firmly in local markets.
Challenges:
• Negative public perception of China’s growing economic presence and credit policy, leading to concerns about debt dependency
• Insufficient attention to cultural and social adaptation
China’s economic policy is the most visible, but it faces drawbacks stemming from mistrust of Beijing’s motives.
China’s influence in Central Asia continues to grow, making the region a crucial element of Beijing’s global strategy. However, despite its economic clout, China must contend with challenges related to security, cultural resistance, and competition from other powers.
No matter how strong the Chinese economy may be, its vulnerability in unstable regions calls the sustainability of long-term projects into question. In this context, a key factor is not just economic might but also Beijing’s ability to respond effectively to challenges while reinforcing its influence in high-risk areas.
Türkiye: Cultural Kinship and Political Leadership
Türkiye emphasizes cultural and historical kinship with the peoples of Central Asia, using the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) as a tool for integration.
Key Instruments:
• Promotion of Turkic identity through cultural projects and collaboration
• Economic cooperation, including investments and trade
• Expansion of influence via the OTS, creating a unified platform for the Turkic world
Challenges:
• Limited financial resources for large-scale infrastructure projects
• Competition with other players, such as China and Russia, in the economic sphere
Türkiye, capitalizing on historical and cultural ties, is building a soft-power network effectively, though its economic capabilities have not yet reached the level required to compete with China and Russia on equal terms.
If previously Türkiye and Azerbaijan referred to themselves as “two states, one nation,” they are now striving for “five states, one nation.” An organization once known as the Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States has evolved into the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). This indicates that integration is no longer just about linguistic affinity but involves a broader concept of unity.
The organization’s investment fund has a charter capital of $500 million, equally contributed by member states, underscoring their equal participation in regional development. The funds will go toward implementing the “Vision 2040” strategy, which covers infrastructure ranging from transport to cloud storage.
Meanwhile, Ankara has not overlooked Tajikistan, which is not a Turkic country, but approaches it through a religious angle-“Muslim brothers.”
One should also note the active presence of Turkish business communities in countries of the region. They are particularly visible in Kyrgyzstan but are also significant in neighboring states.
One priority for Turkish investment is Central Asia-traditionally within Russia’s sphere of influence and, more recently, China’s. From 2021 to 2022 alone, the total volume of Turkish FDI in this region grew by 39%. In 2021, Turkish investments there amounted to $2.3 billion (nearly 5% of all Turkish overseas FDI).
While Türkiye’s investments are significantly smaller than those of Russia or China, the number of joint projects is increasing, including in strategic industries such as high-tech production of defense equipment. A key milestone in Türkiye’s investment relations with the region was the decision to establish an investment fund under the auspices of the Organization of Turkic States. This dynamic expansion underscores the growing importance of Türkiye’s presence in Central Asia.
Over the past five to seven years, Türkiye has considerably increased the funds allocated to various projects. Central Asia consistently ranks third in the volume of Turkish investments. According to data from the Turkish Ministry of Trade for 2020 and 2021, the region accounts for about 11% of all Turkish overseas investments, although the methodology also includes other Asian countries. Investment distribution within the region is uneven. For instance, in 2019 Turkmenistan attracted more investment ($381 million) with fewer deals, surpassing Kazakhstan ($317 million and 56 deals) and Uzbekistan ($198 million and 36 deals).
Comparison: Whose Soft Power Works Best?
China shows significant successes through the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. Its economic projects offer tangible benefits to regional countries, making its influence highly noticeable. However, Türkiye and Russia-drawing on cultural and historical connections-hold an advantage in the long run since their approaches tend to encounter less resistance from local populations.
The United States and the EU focus on democracy, human rights, and sustainable development. Their influence, however, is limited by economic resources and insufficient involvement in large-scale infrastructure projects, reducing their competitiveness compared to China and Russia.
Türkiye and Russia are most successful in leveraging cultural diplomacy, focusing on shared language, history, and religion. This strategy effectively strengthens ties in regions with significant Turkic- or Russian-speaking populations.
Why Success Depends on a Comprehensive Approach
The effectiveness of “soft power” is determined not only by the amount of investment or the number of educational programs but also by the interplay of economic, cultural, and political factors:
• China excels in economic matters but remains weaker in cultural influence.
• Russia relies on language and history but is losing ground among younger generations.
• Türkiye is rapidly developing cultural and political integration yet needs stronger economic tools.
• The United States and the EU suffer from insufficient depth of engagement in the region.
Central Asia is a region of intense competition among major global and regional powers-China, Russia, Türkiye, the EU, and the United States. Each strategy heavily relies on “soft power” tailored to the region’s specifics.
Today, China stands out as the most visible actor in Central Asia due to its large-scale economic projects. However, culturally, Russia and Türkiye remain the most influential forces.
Future success will hinge on each player’s ability to combine economic and cultural strategies attuned to the region’s characteristics. Central Asia is a crossroads of interests, where the future of “soft power” depends on flexibility, adaptability, and respect for the region’s unique identity.
