Central Asia and Trump: What the Region Can Expect from His Administration

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By Samir Muradov

In this interview for The Caspian Post, Kyrgyz political scientist Mars Sariyev offers his perspective on the potential impacts of Trump’s foreign policy in Central Asia. Discussing prospects for economic cooperation, security, and political shifts, Sariyev explores how Trump's pragmatic approach and focus on Asia-Pacific might redefine the region's strategic role and relations with global powers.

- Why did Donald Trump win, and how could his foreign policy impact Central Asia?

- Just two months ago, I predicted Trump’s victory, and I believe this outcome was quite natural. Trump is an anti-establishment politician, and such figures are highly sought after among global players today. In my view, his success is largely supported by behind-the-scenes forces. Concerning Central Asia, there’s no particular reason for alarm. I think Trump’s arrival will strengthen the Organization of Turkic States, and the transportation and energy corridors through Central Asia connecting to Europe will continue to develop. The U.S. is likely to support these initiatives, including the Zangezur Corridor, which could elevate the region as a notable participant in global politics. Meanwhile, the U.S. focus may shift more toward the Asia-Pacific region (APR), where tensions on the Korean Peninsula are intensifying. I believe a peaceful solution will eventually be found for Ukraine and Russia, possibly mirroring the division that persists on the Korean Peninsula.

- What can Central Asian countries expect from the Trump administration in terms of economic and political cooperation? Could the U.S. increase its presence in response to Chinese and Russian influence?

- I expect a new agreement between Kyrgyzstan and the U.S., which could positively impact regional stability. However, I don’t foresee active U.S. political involvement in Central Asia. More likely, the U.S. will focus on economic cooperation, particularly in supporting Turkic states and advancing the region from Türkiye to Central Asia, positioning it as a beneficial partner for the U.S. Security concerns and possible incidents in China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region may draw some interest from the U.S., but overall, attention will likely remain on the Asia-Pacific, especially on the Korean Peninsula, where tensions are rising.

- Should we anticipate a shift in the U.S. strategy on democratic reforms and human rights in Central Asia under Trump?

- Unlike the Democrats, who emphasize human rights and gender projects, Trump tends to adopt a more pragmatic approach. He is likely to focus on profitable economic proposals for Central Asian countries that will be hard to decline. The U.S. may also attempt to engage Russia to weaken its ties with China. Additionally, we may see initiatives targeting opposition to China in the Muslim and Turkic worlds, particularly regarding issues related to Xinjiang and the Uyghur population.

- What are the prospects for U.S.-Central Asia cooperation in security under President Trump? Could countries in the region expect support in countering terrorism and extremism?

- I think Trump will propose initiatives aimed at countering terrorism and extremism. Central Asian countries, as well as members of the Organization of Turkic States, are likely to view these U.S. initiatives favorably. This could serve as a foundation for strengthening security cooperation and combating extremism.

- Do you anticipate a rise in U.S. investments in Central Asia under Trump? Which economic sectors might be prioritized by the U.S.?

- Yes, I believe there will be an increase in American investments in the region. Key areas of focus will include the energy sector, rare earth elements, uranium extraction, and the development of transport and energy infrastructure. Economically, the U.S. may propose mutually beneficial projects with promising prospects for implementation in Central Asia.