New Clashes in Syria Disrupt Astana Peace Negotiations

Image: UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office

It’s called the Astana process: a long-running series of talks hosted by Kazakhstan whose stated aim is to deliver peace to conflict-torn Syria. Some Syrian opposition figures and other critics, however, have said the “guarantor” countries of the process – Iran, Russia and Türkiye – use it to promote their own political and military interests in the region, The Caspian Post reports citing The Times of Central Asia.

The dialogue named after the Kazakh capital, which marked its 22^nd round in Astana on Nov. 11-12, was undercut on Nov. 27 when Syrian rebels launched a surprise attack against government forces and seized most of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, within days. The stunning operation, which reignited the civil war that began in 2011, followed several years of relative quiet during which Syria was divided into areas of factional control and foreign influence.

Iran, Russia and Türkiye are talking about the Astana process as a way out of the current chaos. Visiting Türkiye on Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the negotiations format must be “preserved” and that the foreign ministers of the guarantor countries would meet soon to discuss Syria, according to Iranian state media. Multiple media reports say the meeting could take place not in Astana, but on the sidelines of a forum in Doha, Qatar on Dec. 7-8.

“All agreed: NO ONE benefits from another war in Syria,” Araghchi said on the X platform.

Russia, which along with Iran supports Syrian President Bashar Assad and uses its military presence there to project power in the region and beyond, has also referred to the Astana framework as a way to stabilize the situation. At the same time, Russian jets have conducted bombing runs in response to the rebel offensive, and Iran says it would consider any Syrian government request to send troops.

Türkiye, on the other hand, has backed some Syrian rebel groups and blames the resurgence of fighting on Assad’s failure to engage with the opposition. Türkiye, which hosts several million Syrian refugees on its territory, has sent its own military into northern Syria and seeks to counter an autonomous Kurdish area in the northeast of the country.

The talks in Astana, which is perceived as a neutral venue, started in 2017 and have included the Syrian government and some Syrian opposition groups. There is also United Nations representation. Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq have participated as observers. The United States initially took part as an observer, but dropped out several years ago, favoring a U.N.-backed peace process in Geneva.

The Astana track provided for so-called deescalation zones, though the Syrian government violated the agreement and seized some of those areas, squeezing rebels and civilians into a smaller area along the Turkish border.

While important to reconciliation efforts, the Astana dialogue “has been heavily influenced by the interests and positions” of the sponsoring countries – Iran, Russia and Türkiye, author Zenonas Tziarras wrote in an analysis published in 2022 by the Peace Research Institute Oslo, a non-profit group.

“As the scope of the process became wider, encompassing political and constitutional aspects, some of its shortcomings in the areas of representation and ownership became more salient,” Tziarras said. “It has thus been questionable the extent to which Astana contributes to peace in Syria or reinforces a status quo and legitimizes foreign involvement, against the country’s unity and political transition to a post-conflict future.”

A similar criticism came from Faysal Abbas Mohamad in a commentary published last year by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“This insistence on the Astana format reveals its true modus operandi: a mechanism for normalizing the military presence of its sponsors, while minimizing interstate friction,” Mohamad said.

Kazakhstan has raised its international profile over the years by hosting talks such as those on Syria, even if it is not actually participating in negotiations. The Kazakh government also provided a platform for Armenia and Azerbaijan to discuss an end to their long dispute.

At the end of the last round of Syria talks in Astana, the parties issued a 24-point statement of more than 2,000 words. Point No. 24? Meet again in Astana in the first half of 2025.