By Maria Zhigadlo
The Caspian Post presents an interview with Russian political scientist, expert on the geopolitics of the Caspian region, and chief editor of the portal Caspian Herald, Vladislav Kondratyev.
- What are the main reasons for the rapid decline in the Caspian Sea water level over the last 30 years?
- It should be noted that the Caspian Sea’s water level, as well as its volume and surface area, have historically fluctuated over large timescales. From the 1930s to the 1970s, a decline was recorded, followed by a positive adjustment toward average values from the 1970s to the 1990s. Starting in 1995, and especially intensively since 2018, a total drop of nearly 2.5 meters has been recorded to date: from -26.65 mBS to -28.99 mBS (where mBS refers to meters according to the Baltic System), including an average yearly decrease of 20-25 cm over the last three years.
Experts believe that the main influx of water into the Caspian Sea originates from the river runoff of approximately 1,305 rivers flowing into it. However, around 80% of the Caspian’s water inflow comes from Russia’s Volga River. Over the past several years, an annual deficit of the Volga runoff amounting to 30-40 cubic kilometers has been documented. According to Russian scientists, this decrease in the Volga’s flow is due to natural rather than anthropogenic factors, stemming from changes in hydrometeorological conditions as well as geological and tectonic phenomena.
Hydrometeorological causes include the decrease in precipitation over the last four to five years (rainfall during the warm season and snowfall in winter) that replenishes the Volga River basin and its smaller tributaries, as well as changes in the annual distribution of this precipitation. This is driven by shifts in the paths of moist air masses over the European part of the Russian Federation, which used to be predominantly cyclones originating in the Atlantic Ocean. These cyclones have now moved further north, over Northern Europe and regions of Northern Russia, mainly replenishing water bodies that flow into the Norwegian, Barents, and Kara Seas and then into the Arctic Ocean. As a result, the Volga River has experienced a deficit of water, reduced depth, and a weaker flow.
At the same time, experts note that the drop in the Caspian’s water level is also related to increased evaporation within the basin and over the sea itself, including the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay (Turkmenistan). This, in turn, is linked to global climate warming against the backdrop of rising greenhouse gas emissions across the Northern Hemisphere.
Furthermore, there are regular geological and tectonic phenomena in the southern part of the Caspian Sea, where depths exceed one kilometer. These so-called underwater tremors and shifts alter the sea’s volume. Therefore, according to available Russian scientific data, there is no evidence that the decline in the Caspian Sea level is caused by anthropogenic impacts on its main feeder, the Volga River.
Meanwhile, in the expert community of the Caspian littoral states, the prevailing view is that the primary cause of the Caspian’s water deficit lies in harmful economic activities on the Russian side. Specifically, the operation of the Volga-Kama cascade of hydro-engineering complexes-which includes 10 hydropower plants on the Volga, three on the Kama, and two on the Sheksna, along with their reservoirs-is cited as a key factor. Some experts also believe that Russia is carrying out irreversible water withdrawals from the Volga for agricultural irrigation purposes, including the expansion of wheat cultivation in regions around the Volga, prompted by a sharp reduction in agricultural imports from Europe and the United States following the introduction of sanctions.
Nevertheless, specialists point out that the Volga-Kama cascade of hydropower stations and reservoirs does not actually extract any significant volume of water irreversibly. It only temporarily withholds water. The water collected in the reservoirs is ultimately almost fully released back into the river, continuing its flow toward the Caspian.
Moreover, most of these hydro-engineering complexes were put into operation during the Soviet era. Yet, from 1977 to 1995, an increase in the Caspian Sea’s water level was observed. The amount of water withdrawn for agricultural needs is minimal and cannot be considered a significant contributing factor to water losses. In addition, the claim that wheat cultivation specifically requires irrigation does not match reality, since it is largely irrigated by natural rainfall.
Since the Caspian Sea is fed by its tributary rivers, it should be remembered that the remaining 20% of its inflow (excluding the Volga) comes from other rivers in the region, which have also been losing volume amid rising temperatures around the Caspian Sea.
In Azerbaijan, for example, the water levels of its four largest rivers have declined significantly in recent years: the Kura by 27%, the Araz by 34.58%, the Samur by 21.8%, and the Ganykh by 9.17%.
- What environmental consequences might arise from the Caspian’s shallowing, and how will they affect the surrounding ecosystem and biodiversity?
- Fluctuations in the Caspian basin lead to a deterioration in conditions for the natural reproduction of aquatic biological resources and have a negative impact on marine flora and fauna. There is an increasing threat of further population decline among unique species of Caspian biota, such as the Caspian seal. Valuable Caspian fish species are also at risk.
Even now, numerous large inland wetlands along the entire shoreline-primarily in Russia and Iran-are under threat. These areas feature unique flora and fauna, including Red Data Book species. They also include specially protected natural territories such as reserves and sanctuaries.
In addition, scientists warn that if the Caspian continues to recede, climate conditions will shift accordingly, exacerbating desertification and soil erosion problems. This, in turn, will affect agriculture and rural communities.
- What measures can be taken by Caspian region states to prevent further shallowing and preserve the water body?
- The rapid drop in the Caspian Sea’s water level relative to the world’s oceans significantly impacts relations among the five Caspian states, their economic ties, and the region’s environmental situation.
Countries in the region are powerless to alter the climatic situation in this part of the world; therefore, they should take measures aimed at adapting to these changes. Such measures include improving observation methods for environmental conditions and ensuring that accurate information is promptly shared with all potential resource users. There is no need to “save” the Caspian, as it has existed for thousands of years. It has undergone periods of both transgression and regression, and its near-term future will be determined not by human actions but by natural processes.
In early November of last year, Baku and Moscow formed a commission to address the problem of the Caspian Sea’s shallowing. Other Caspian basin countries can and should join this commission to work together in mitigating the adverse consequences of the Caspian’s fluctuating water levels. Only through joint efforts can the region’s countries develop comprehensive measures aimed at preserving ecosystems and fostering economic development.
Additionally, there is a need to establish new scientific institutions, implement comprehensive environmental protection programs (including ecosystem monitoring), introduce water-saving technologies and raise public awareness about the importance of preserving the sea, and adopt strict environmental standards for the oil and gas industry, manufacturing, and agriculture.
- How does the declining Caspian Sea water level affect the region’s economy, including port operations, shipping, and fishing?
- The drying up of the Caspian Sea’s coastal areas has a negative impact on maritime-related sectors of the littoral states’ economies, including fishing, the oil industry, construction, and maritime transport.
Given the active development of the “North-South” and “Middle (Trans-Caspian) Corridor” transport routes and the Caspian Sea’s role within them, resolving the problem of the sea’s shallowing and its associated consequences is of paramount importance for the further development of the Caspian as a major regional transport and logistics hub.
Due to the effects of shallowing, the future operations of major ports in Kazakhstan (Aktau, Kuryk), Azerbaijan (the Port of Baku), Iran (the ports of Anzali, Astara, Amirabad, etc.), Turkmenistan (Turkmenbashi), and Russia (Astrakhan, Olya, Makhachkala) are under threat.
According to the Ports and Maritime Organization of Iran, the cost of maintaining port operations in northern Iran in the face of the Caspian’s shallowing has been growing by about 13% annually. Additional expenses are required for dredging navigation channels, reinforcing marine facilities, constructing new dams along Iran’s coast to prevent the buildup of marine dust, and more.
In addition, as the Caspian recedes, extra funding is needed to clear and carry out dredging in the Ashuradeh Strait, which connects the Caspian Sea with Iran’s Gorgan Bay.
Another example is the Port of Alat (Baku International Sea Trade Port), which is situated in a bay. A 7.6-meter-deep channel has been dug out to reach it. In the face of declining water levels in the Caspian, further dredging becomes necessary. Moreover, Baku has had to build new marine equipment at its shipyards to carry out these works without relying on foreign expertise.
Thus, the Caspian Sea’s shallowing may significantly hinder the implementation of socioeconomic development programs among its littoral states.
