On August 8, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Washington at the initiative of U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss peace and regional stability.
In this exclusive interview, Russian international affairs expert Grigory Trofimchuk shares his perspective on the high-level meeting in Washington that brought together the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the United States.
- How do you assess the outcome of the Washington meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and U.S. President Donald Trump?
- Many may have forgotten, but let me remind you. In early 2017, when Donald Trump first became president, Azerbaijani journalists asked me whether he would even be interested in the Karabakh issue and the South Caucasus in general, whether he even knew where it was. I explained that yes, he would, because it simply could not be otherwise. Today, we have finally received a full and clear answer on this matter, leaving no more questions.
The joint declaration itself was undoubtedly a sensation, as events developed rapidly, and only on the eve of its signing did the phrase “Trump Bridge” begin to actively leak into the public sphere - a project that later acquired its official name, TRIPP. For now, everyone is talking about the enormous economic and integrational significance of this project, but its geopolitical importance is far greater, it’s just not customary to speak about it yet.
The future will show how not only the South Caucasus will look - for it is merely the “solar plexus,” the meeting point of other key directions: the Middle East, the Caspian, Central Asia, etc. This is the true significance of the event. This sensation occurred literally on the eve of the formal five-year expiry of the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020 - a fact that should not be overlooked.
To put it bluntly - what Moscow planned to do under this plan, Washington did instead. Why this happened, and what took place with the Russian Federation during this “reporting” period, is also clear; I won’t elaborate, but everything we are seeing now is simply a consequence.
Source: AzerTAG
Azerbaijan acted purely politically - as is fitting in serious politics. But even this time, it did not sever anything with Moscow on its own, just as it was during the dissolution of the Soviet Union. To sum up: the entire large region is now practically under Azerbaijan’s control, and events here will continue to develop.
True peace will only be guaranteed when not only the prerequisites but also the concrete actions for it are fully in place. The declaration has paved the way. But the Zangezur “overture” (not “adventure,” as some might wish to call it) is already a fact. Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan - and more broadly, Baku and Yerevan - have entered into close bilateral contacts and ties. I have spoken about this in many interviews with the media since the 2010s, wondering why it had not happened earlier. And for Trump himself, unlike many other matters and directions, the Azerbaijani-Armenian issue became one of the most tangible (one of only two, to be precise) - something even his opponents would find hard to dispute.
- In your opinion, will Armenia benefit from the implementation of the agreements reached in Washington?
- Armenian society is divided on this matter, and understandably so. We can now expect anything from it - and this is also a reality of the transition period. If someone tries to reformat Armenia or carry out a coup there, it will push the country down even further, this time without Pashinyan, and it will also affect the Russian military base. Of course, Baku is not obliged to directly care for Armenian citizens - that is not its task; however, if after the birth of the declaration they quickly feel obvious improvements in economic and everyday life, it will automatically stabilize the whole region.
Otherwise, tensions in the TRIPP zone could grow - and as we can already see, many centers, such as Tehran, are not hiding this.
Let me also recall that about ten years ago, the so-called collective West considered the “sovereignization” of Karabakh as a base for further pressure on Iran. Today, a different path has been chosen, but the Iranian problem for the U.S. has not disappeared - rather, it has even grown. Pashinyan has so far managed to prolong his political future by any means necessary. For now, in the short term, Armenia has gained, but the near future could change everything to the point “that even its own mother would not recognize it.”
- How likely is it that the reached agreement will be implemented in practice?
Source: AzerTAG
- Again, much depends on Azerbaijan. The Washington Declaration - unlike the final text of a peace treaty - is already in hand. Therefore, Azerbaijan and its partners must build the Zangezur transport corridor as quickly as possible before the international environment changes - an environment from which we can now expect anything. They must strike while the iron is hot. And they can do it easily, almost like magic - as can be seen in the construction sector on the returned Azerbaijani lands.
With TRIPP in place, the region will already look different in practice. By the way, let Armenian citizens not only swim in the Black Sea in Georgia but also in the Caspian - the new infrastructure will make it possible. And this, too, is one of the guarantees.
- Does the domestic political situation in Armenia allow for the implementation of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan?
- For now, it allows halfway, but later this ratio could change for the worse. As Nikol Pashinyan’s political career shows, his power always sits on a powder keg, and at some point, anything could happen. It is good, by the way, that Trump paid no attention to how Pashinyan came to power - via a coup - and calmly signed legally significant documents with him.
The problem with coming to power this way is that such a government can always be changed in exactly the same way - and then there will be no one to ask for help. That said, Pashinyan is still fully capable of signing a peace treaty - he is politically capable overall. There is a need to hurry - later it may be too late, and border “posts” could start falling again. For now, imagine future newspaper headlines: “First group of holidaymakers from Armenia - mothers with children - heads to the Caspian beaches.”
- How do you assess Russia’s reaction to the outcome of the Washington meeting?
Source: TASS
- To put it mildly, the reaction has been very restrained so far - resembling confusion. But later, that same reaction may become completely unrestrained, especially since the Russian-Azerbaijani backdrop is already “tense.” But in essence, everything is clear to everyone: Washington, almost playfully, pulled out from under Moscow the results of 30 years of work in the region, including the entire negotiation saga - like a simple school trick, when a sheet of paper is yanked from under a glass of water in one sharp move.
But for now, Russia as a whole has more pressing matters - and everyone understands this well. Moscow should have paid more attention to Azerbaijan, which I, as an expert, had been suggesting since 2005 - twenty years ago - when I wrote the book AZy: Discovering Azerbaijan, which resonated widely among Azerbaijanis and beyond. But what’s done is done.
In Russia, I should note, there is not such a large circle of experts who have commented on the Azerbaijani direction - including those who were biased, unlike me. Well, they have “commented” their fill.
Yes, in the context of the Azerbaijani-Armenian declaration, I remind you that I am practically the only Russian expert who, throughout all these years, has given numerous interviews to both Azerbaijani and Armenian media - which has allowed me to remain grounded in objectivity. Now, there are many statements claiming that all of the South Caucasus is leaving Russia, and later the North will follow. Well - who should be thanked for this? Certainly not Azerbaijan itself.
Asif Aydinli
