By Maria Zhigadlo
The Caspian Sea, the world's largest inland body of water, is undergoing significant environmental changes. In recent years, its water level has been steadily declining, raising concerns among the five littoral states-Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan.
This issue not only threatens the region’s unique ecosystems but also has serious economic implications, affecting fisheries, port infrastructure, and local communities. In an exclusive interview with The Caspian Post, Russian expert Vladislav Kondratyev, Editor-in-Chief of the information and analytical portal "Caspian Bulletin", discusses the factors contributing to the Caspian’s shrinking, the steps taken by regional governments to address this crisis, and the prospects for international cooperation in saving the sea.
Image: eurasianmagazine.ru
- The Caspian Sea borders five countries: Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Azerbaijan. The shallowest part of the sea is in the north. Residents of Kazakhstan's Atyrau region are feeling the effects of its desiccation most acutely and are raising the alarm-the water has receded hundreds of meters from the shore. What steps are the Caspian littoral states taking to halt the shrinking of the Caspian Sea? Are there any joint programs or initiatives being developed at the regional governmental level?
- In November of last year, Russia and Azerbaijan decided to establish a commission to address the problem of the Caspian Sea’s desiccation. This agreement was reached following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Baku. At that time, both sides committed to working together to prevent the sea’s further shrinkage.
During the same period, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, in a meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ali Asadov, announced that Baku and Moscow would create a commission to determine the causes of the sea level decline and develop mechanisms to mitigate its desiccation. As a follow-up to these high-level agreements, Russia’s Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology, Alexander Kozlov, visited Baku in December. He held discussions with Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Mukhtar Babayev, and participated in an expanded meeting with experts engaged in tackling the issue of the Caspian Sea’s desiccation.
Following the negotiations, plans were announced to develop and adopt a Russian-Azerbaijani program in the first quarter of 2025, which will outline appropriate response measures to the ongoing environmental changes. Additionally, it was revealed that Moscow and Baku are working on the framework and platform for creating a five-party structure that will address the Caspian’s desiccation problem collectively. This is undoubtedly the right decision, as only through joint efforts can the region’s countries develop comprehensive measures aimed at preserving ecosystems and ensuring economic sustainability.
- Are the governments of Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran considering the creation of a unified mechanism to save the Caspian Sea? Are there any examples of international cooperation on this issue?
- The Caspian Sea is characterized by natural fluctuations in water levels. Over hundreds of thousands of years, its level has continuously changed, shaping a unique coastal ecosystem. Even in the past few centuries, the Caspian’s level has fluctuated significantly. For example, as scientists have proven, just over a thousand years ago, in the 8th-10th centuries, the Caspian Sea’s level was at -32 meters, while today it stands at around -29 to -29.5 meters. This means that a vast area of the Volga Delta was once dry land, allowing the formation of the unique Khazar civilization, whose remnants largely remain underwater. Thus, the notion that the Caspian urgently needs to be “saved” is unfounded. Russian scientists tend to believe that the Caspian Sea’s water level is primarily influenced by climatic factors-natural fluctuations in river inflows and the intensity of evaporation from its surface. In other words, climate change affects the sea level, and while it cannot be halted, adaptation to these processes is possible.
However, tectonic processes, solar activity, and other factors also play a role. At the same time, it must be acknowledged that the modern decline in the Caspian’s water level is occurring under fundamentally new economic conditions and is significantly impacting the economies of the littoral states. Naturally, this calls for the development of concrete response measures. Regarding examples of international cooperation, the Aral Sea provides a relevant precedent. Since 1993, the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) has been in operation.
The Aral Sea has lost over 90% of its water volume since the 1960s/Photo: Wikipedia
On June 23, 1990, in Almaty, the regulations for the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) were signed, marking its official establishment. The heads of all Central Asian states demonstrated political will and commitment to addressing the shared use of the Aral Sea basin’s water resources while considering the interests of all regional countries. Over time, IFAS and its associated organizations have become an essential political platform for negotiation processes between nations, fostering the development and adoption of bilateral and multilateral agreements aimed at comprehensive management, utilization, and conservation of transboundary water resources.
- What measures could be most effective in stabilizing the Caspian Sea’s water level? Is it possible to use water resource management technologies or environmental projects to restore the region’s ecosystem?
- To effectively address the fluctuations in the Caspian Sea’s water level, it is crucial to enhance methods for monitoring the natural environment, ensuring that accurate information is promptly disseminated to all relevant stakeholders. Leveraging the potential of public organizations, such as the Association of Universities and Research Centers of the Caspian States-an organization that has united over 60 scientific centers in the Caspian region since 1996-can be particularly beneficial. Scientists from these countries can conduct joint monitoring of the Caspian’s water levels and the influencing factors while performing comprehensive analyses of the collected data. A notable example of an environmental initiative is the collaboration between Russia and Kazakhstan. In Russia, from 2021 to 2024, the federal project “Revitalization of the Volga” was implemented as part of the national project “Ecology”, as well as within the framework of government programs such as “Reproduction and Use of Natural Resources” and “Environmental Protection”.
The “Revitalization of the Volga” project was aimed at improving the ecological condition of the Volga River and ensuring the sustainable functioning of the Lower Volga's water management system. By the end of 2024, the project sought to reduce the volume of polluted wastewater discharged into the river by a factor of three and implement a series of measures to restore water bodies in the lower reaches of the Volga. These efforts included additional water replenishment for the Akhtuba River. Special attention was given to the ecological state of the Lower Volga and the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain, addressing the problem of insufficient water distribution within the hydrographic network.
For the implementation of this federal project, 108.9 billion rubles were allocated from the federal budget between 2019 and 2024. Another critical water source feeding the Caspian Sea is the Ural River. To address its preservation, the Ministries of Ecology of Russia and Kazakhstan successfully implemented a joint program for the conservation and restoration of the ecosystems of the transboundary Ural and Irtysh rivers. This program, which was scheduled to run until 2024, included activities such as identifying pollution sources, reconstructing water management facilities, and clearing riverbeds within the basin. Given these efforts, the successful experiences of the Northern Caspian states could be extended to the entire region to develop a more comprehensive strategy for stabilizing the Caspian Sea's water levels and ensuring long-term ecological sustainability.
