The Caspian Post presents an interview by News.Az with Türkiye's former military attaché to Azerbaijan and retired Major General Yücel Karauz who discussed recent developments in the region, Armenia's attempts to adapt to NATO standards, U.S. support for Armenia, and the impact of these processes on Türkiye-Azerbaijan relations.
Major General Karauz emphasized the strategic importance of defense projects between Türkiye and Azerbaijan, carried out within the framework of the Shusha Declaration, and highlighted the strengthening of the fraternal relations between the two countries.
He also addressed the implications of U.S. support for Armenia on Türkiye-Russia relations and the geopolitical balance in the region. Against the backdrop of Armenia's pivot to the West, the general discussed the prospects of opening the Türkiye-Armenia border, stressing that progress in this matter is impossible without a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and recognition of its territorial integrity.
The general noted that Armenia's attempts to forge closer ties with the U.S. and the West will not affect Türkiye's position within NATO. He also elaborated on the increased U.S. military presence in the Caucasus and the threats this poses to both Türkiye and Azerbaijan.
Türkiye's former military attaché to Azerbaijan and retired Major General Yücel Karauz. Photo: AZERTAC
- Could the possibility of the U.S. arming Armenia accelerate joint defense projects between Türkiye and Azerbaijan?
- Joint defense projects between Türkiye and Azerbaijan continue in line with the provisions outlined in the Shusha Declaration. Therefore, Armenia's actions against Azerbaijan will not significantly impact these projects. Naturally, certain format changes might occur, as the defense industry is a structure that requires constant adaptation and evolution. Nevertheless, Türkiye and Azerbaijan continue to adhere to the principle of "what belongs to one, belongs to the other." This mutual understanding ensures the resilience of the projects regardless of external factors.
- Could Armenia's adaptation to NATO standards reshape Türkiye's policies in the Caucasus?
- A country’s defense power is not solely determined by its defense industry but also by its national power elements. Regardless of the amount of arms supplied to Armenia, it will not influence Türkiye’s policies in the Caucasus. The only scenario that could have an impact is the establishment of U.S. military bases along the borders of Georgia, Iran, and Türkiye, similar to what has already been done in Greece. Although such bases are primarily aimed at countering Iran and Russia, they could also be considered a potential threat to Türkiye and Azerbaijan. However, at this stage, there is no situation necessitating a revision of Türkiye’s Caucasus policy.
- How might Armenia's rapprochement with the U.S. affect Türkiye's position within NATO?
- I do not believe that U.S.-Armenia relations will lead to Armenia joining NATO, as Türkiye would exercise its veto right if Armenia fails to reconcile with Azerbaijan. This is a significant leverage for Türkiye. Among NATO's 32 members, Türkiye is one of the three strongest countries. Relations between Armenia and the U.S. will not negatively affect Türkiye’s position within NATO. This is because NATO is indispensable for Türkiye, and Türkiye is indispensable for NATO, making their relationship one that requires ongoing dialogue.
- How would Armenia's pivot to the West influence Türkiye's policy on opening its border with Armenia?
- Armenia is attempting to maintain a multi-layered policy by engaging with Russia, the European Union, the U.S., and Iran simultaneously. However, it is not feasible for a small state like Armenia to sustain such a complex and multi-dimensional approach. From this perspective, Türkiye will not open its borders without the fulfillment of the following conditions: the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, adherence to the terms of the trilateral agreement, and the resolution of other key issues. Any attempts to open the borders without these steps would be a grave mistake, considering past unfulfilled promises that led to many missed geopolitical and geostrategic opportunities.
- How will U.S. support for Armenia affect Türkiye-Russia relations?
- The U.S. support for Armenia and its presence in the region could bring Türkiye and Russia closer together. Although their relationship has not reached the level of an alliance, it is already characterized by a high degree of strategic cooperation. Any foreign presence in the Caucasus poses a threat to both Türkiye and Russia, which is likely to lead to a unified stance between the two countries.
