A few days ago, the United Nations News section on the UN website reported an expansion of cooperation among Central Asian states on the sustainable use of shared rivers. As noted in an editorial article, over the past three years, countries in the region have signed four new bilateral agreements on river water resource management. However, it also emphasizes that "gaps remain in the protection of transboundary groundwater."
Overall, water issues have long been the Achilles' heel of the political and economic landscape of Central Asia. This is why, in 2023, the Green Central Asia Regional Program, implemented by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) in Central Asia, identified "creating favorable conditions in the most vulnerable areas" as a key priority in its climate adaptation strategy, which has been adopted by all five Central Asian states. Water resources were placed at the top of this list.
Meeting of the Regional Programme “Climate Sensitive Water Resources Management in Central Asia”/Photo credit: greencentralasia.org
This prioritization is hardly surprising, as water is often referred to as a strategic resource for Central Asia, comparable in importance to oil and gas. Consequently, China has been investing in the construction of regional dams and irrigation systems.
In this context, the World Bank reports that "increased water consumption, declining water reserves, and climate change are exacerbating the already significant shortage of drinking water, water for sanitation, and irrigation for food crops" across Central Asia. These factors limit water availability, which, in turn, could lead to "economic stagnation, deteriorating public health," and even "conflicts over shared transboundary water resources, particularly lakes and rivers."
Given this, the World Bank, through the International Development Association (IDA), is assisting Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan in improving rural water supply, modernizing inefficient water infrastructure, and reducing water losses by implementing more efficient irrigation systems. According to the World Bank, achieving "water security and sustained economic growth" is only possible through enhanced water resource management and irrigation system improvements, thereby "optimizing the water-energy nexus through an integrated approach."
At the same time, the significant reduction in water resources is also attributed to climate change, which is causing the shrinking of glaciers and snow cover in the mountains. For instance, recent data indicate that the Amu Darya River has lost nearly one-third of its water resources in recent years. This trend coincides with population growth in Central Asian countries and the expansion of hydraulic infrastructure projects.
The Aral Sea has become a poignant symbol of environmental devastation. / Nasa, collage by Producercunningham, public domain
Back in 2023, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, speaking at a meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) in Dushanbe, warned that regional security is threatened by "the onset of a period of water scarcity, a shortage of irrigation water, and the fact that temperatures in Central Asia are rising at a faster rate than the global average." He highlighted that the shrinking glaciers, which are the primary water sources in the Aral Sea basin, and the projected drought in Central Asia by 2050 could cause economic damage equivalent to 1.3% of GDP annually, leading to the emergence of approximately 5 million 'internal climate migrants'." In response, President Tokayev proposed developing a work plan to implement a unified automated system for accounting, monitoring, managing, and distributing water resources in the Aral Sea basin. He also suggested scheduling the next IFAS meeting in 2026 to coincide with a Regional Climate Summit under the UN's aegis.
In this regard, Astana and Tashkent recently agreed to install equipment that accurately measures the volume of water consumed by both countries. Under the agreement, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will monitor water measurement devices on each other's territories, ensuring accurate data collection for both sides.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and China are currently drafting an intergovernmental agreement on the distribution of transboundary river waters. The core objective is to guarantee a water inflow sufficient to maintain Lake Balkhash at an optimal level. Furthermore, under Kazakhstan’s Water Code, the country aims to complete the construction of 42 reservoirs by 2030, with a total capacity of 2.6 cubic kilometers of water. Notably, water losses during transportation have already been reduced by 25% due to the reconstruction of 14,000 km of irrigation canals. By 2030, the country aims to achieve annual water savings of up to 2.2 billion cubic meters.
At the 88th meeting of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC), held in Dushanbe in late January 2025, an agreement was reached for Kazakhstan to receive 11 billion cubic meters of water from other Central Asian countries during the current irrigation season. Of this, 1.6 billion cubic meters are allocated to the Aral Sea.
88th ICWC meeting/Photo credit: icwc-aral.uz
As for Uzbekistan, sources indicate that to enhance water resource efficiency, the country has installed "Smart Water" management devices at more than 11,000 water facilities by the end of 2024, while automating approximately 70 major water management facilities. Additionally, over 2 trillion Uzbek soums in concessional loans have been allocated to implement drip, sprinkler, and discrete irrigation systems across more than 130,000 hectares.
Even from the brief overview presented above, it is evident that water resources are becoming a critical factor in maintaining stability and security in Central Asia. Experts are confident that solving this issue requires collective efforts from all Central Asian states. It is no coincidence that the capitals of all regional countries have highlighted water management as a top priority in their state policies. However, to effectively overcome these challenges, the involvement of international organizations in addressing the region’s water problems is also crucial.
