Late 2024 was marked by an event that could become a turning point in Central Asia’s economic development. President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov solemnly launched the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway.
Calling this day historic, he emphasized that the project would be an important step in modernizing the region’s transport infrastructure.
This railway, which will run through the hard-to-reach mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan, has not only economic but also geopolitical significance. It links the world’s largest goods producer-China-with the markets of Central Asia and the Middle East. In addition, the project creates an alternative to traditional northern routes passing through Russia.
The start of construction on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is of immense importance not only for the three states involved but also for the entire Central Asian region.
Located in the “heart” of the Eurasian continent, surrounded by economic centers such as China, India, Russia, the European Union, Iran, and other West Asian countries, Central Asia had long been unable to realize its potential. This view was expressed specifically for The Caspian Post by Kyrgyz analyst Sergey Kozhemyakin.
In his opinion, the main reason was the lack of large-scale transport corridors. The region has no direct access to the sea, and its cross-border highway and railway infrastructure is insufficiently developed. Disagreements among the post-Soviet republics also impeded their creation.
“For example, under Islam Karimov’s leadership, Uzbekistan adhered to an isolationist policy, refrained from joint initiatives, and had rather strained relations with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. External factors also played a role. Before the conflict between Russia and the West, both China and the EU preferred to use transport routes that ran through Russian territory (the Trans-Siberian Railway, etc.),” the expert notes.
Economic Benefit: New Opportunities for Kyrgyzstan
For Kyrgyzstan, this project could become an economic breakthrough. Ma Jia, Chief Designer at China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co., Ltd., points out that the railway will be a significant milestone in cooperation between China and Central Asian countries, significantly reducing transportation times between China and Central Asia and effectively lowering logistics costs for companies along the route. This will promote the development of trade ties and economic cooperation on the Eurasian continent.
According to Kozhemyakin, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway could become the central axis of a new transport and infrastructure system. The benefit for Bishkek and Tashkent lies not only in revenue from cargo transit from China to Europe and West Asia but also in the opportunity for their own access to foreign markets.
The main line will run in close proximity to mineral deposits whose development had been hindered, among other things, by the lack of well-developed transport infrastructure.
At the same time, it would be a mistake to think that the railway’s launch is a done deal and that no problems will arise during construction. Due to the terrain and landscape features, the Kyrgyz section is the most complex and expensive.
Preliminary estimates speak of investments amounting to 5 billion dollars.
Funding is to be shared by all three project participants, but whether this process will run smoothly and without disagreements remains an open question.
Here are some of the benefits for the Kyrgyz Republic:
1. Increased trade flows. Kyrgyzstan will have the opportunity to become a transit country, ensuring annual income from transportation fees. According to preliminary estimates, freight volumes could reach 5-7 million tons per year.
2. New jobs. Building and servicing the railway will create thousands of jobs, which is especially important for regions with high unemployment.
Dr. Wang Zhiwei of the Institute of International Journalism and Communications at Beijing Foreign Studies University underscores that large numbers of workers will be needed during the railway’s construction, increasing local residents’ incomes and stimulating consumption. The consumption of materials such as steel, cement, and mechanical equipment required for building the railway will further encourage the development of local industry.
3. Integration into global supply chains. Access to major markets in China and Uzbekistan will allow Kyrgyzstan to boost exports of agricultural products and other goods.
According to Shi Lan, Director of the Central Asia Institute at the Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway represents a project to create the shortest transport corridor linking Europe and Asia, meeting the growing demands of the global economy.
The railway construction project offers Kyrgyzstan a multitude of opportunities that, if used properly, could make a huge contribution to the country’s development, Kyrgyz political scientist and China expert Aibolot Aidosov told The Caspian Post.
The expert believes that these positive factors can be conditionally divided into three categories which, if managed effectively, could unlock vast potential benefits for the country.
“First is undoubtedly the economic aspect: the country gains a strategic resource not only as a transit nation but can itself become a major industrial hub along the railway route in the future, whose goods can be shipped in both directions.
This will also significantly boost the country’s investment appeal. Large businesses can open operations here and sell goods to big markets with great enthusiasm, which in turn is attractive to investors. Meanwhile, if Kyrgyzstan becomes an endpoint for some products from Europe or Asia, many goods might become cheaper from this position.
The second aspect is security. If we consider this project not from the perspective of risks and external threats but from a position of strength, then Kyrgyzstan gains a serious additional lever for reinforcing statehood. In the event of force majeure circumstances with neighboring countries, our nation could halt the movement of freight cars on its territory,” the political scientist explains.
Photo: Voice of America
Geopolitical Struggle: The Transport Corridor as an Arena of Interests
Ravshan Nazarov, Candidate of Philosophical Sciences and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of State and Law of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan, believes that under the Belt and Road Initiative, the railway will fill gaps in the region’s cross-border transport network, fostering logistics integration and strengthening infrastructure and economic interconnectedness among the countries along the Belt and Road.
However, the project also arouses interest and concern among external players. Why?
1. China.
For the PRC, this railway is part of the global “One Belt, One Road” initiative. China strives to reduce its reliance on maritime routes through the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca by creating reliable overland routes for exporting its goods.
2. Russia.
Russia, which has traditionally controlled transport corridors in the region, may view the project as a threat to its influence. The new railway redirects part of the freight traffic that used to go through Russian territory.
Today, however, there is another perspective on this situation, which may partly work in Russia’s favor. This is evident from Moscow’s changing rhetoric toward the project. Apparently, Russia has decided to approach the perceived threat from a different angle, seeing in it a possible extension (or linkage) under its own “North-South” project.
According to Sergey Kozhemyakin, Iran has for several years been proposing to connect the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway to its own railway system. This would provide Beijing and the Central Asian countries with the shortest route to seaports. Linking the main line to the “North-South” corridor, jointly developed by Russia, Iran, India, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, also seems promising.
“However, judging by official statements, the main line may be connected to the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor-a project actively promoted by the West and Türkiye. This scenario carries serious risks. Implemented at the expense of Russian and Iranian interests, it will strengthen the influence of Türkiye, the U.S., and the EU in the Central Asian region, possibly leading to further involvement of the republics in anti-Russian, anti-Iranian, and anti-Chinese initiatives,” the analyst notes.
3. The European Union and the United States.
Western countries see both opportunities and risks in this project. On the one hand, it contributes to a diversification of supply routes. In this respect, the West supports the development of the Trans-Caspian corridor that bypasses Russia. On the other hand, its implementation reinforces China’s position, which worries the U.S. Meanwhile, Britain appears less concerned, possibly because the Rothschilds and other British interests in China do not directly conflict with Chinese interests.
4. Uzbekistan.
The project benefits Uzbekistan by improving access to the Chinese market and offering new opportunities for exports. Moreover, the railway enhances its transit potential.
Risks and Challenges
Despite obvious advantages, the project is associated with a number of risks:
1. Financial dependency. The railway’s construction requires significant investment, most of which comes from China. This may increase Kyrgyzstan’s economic dependence on Beijing.
2. Environmental impact. Laying the route through mountainous regions could affect the local ecosystem.
3. Social protests. There are fears in society that the infrastructure will be used mainly to serve China’s needs, while benefits to the local population may be minimal.
4. Political instability. The project’s implementation may become a target of criticism and domestic political conflict in Kyrgyzstan.
According to some security experts in the region, including in Kyrgyzstan itself, the project’s implementation could serve as a trigger (pretext) for various provocations or the creation of conflict hot spots.
From Aidosov’s perspective, the security issue is naturally a political factor: thanks to this railway, the country’s weight and influence will grow, bolstering statehood. Combined with the other factors he mentioned, the nation will have opportunities that did not exist before. China’s presence through this project also fosters room for maneuver.
“If managed ineffectively, the project could strike at all three aspects, primarily damaging the country’s image if public opposition to the railway arises and is not properly addressed. Indeed, there are major world powers seeking to undermine China’s initiatives, and we become part of their target area. Here, the security services, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the police should work in close coordination. With the right approach, as well as building mutually beneficial cooperation with major powers, these risks can be mitigated,” the Kyrgyz political scientist concludes.
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is more than just a transport project. It is an infrastructure initiative that could reshape the region’s economic landscape, offering Kyrgyzstan new opportunities for integration into global markets.
However, the successful implementation of this ambitious undertaking will require a balanced approach to minimize risks and ensure that all parties benefit.
As President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Japarov said, “This is a historic moment that opens new horizons for our people.” The only question is whether Kyrgyzstan can seize this opportunity to the fullest for its future.
Thus, experts view the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project as a significant step toward strengthening economic cooperation, developing infrastructure, and enhancing the region’s investment appeal.
