An IMEMO RAS (Ye. M. Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations under the Russian Academy of Sciences) report warns that Armenia's potential break with Russia could pose serious risks to its national security and the stability of its statehood, particularly in the medium term.
The analysis highlights the dangers of severing ties with Russia, emphasizing minimal short-term benefits and significant long-term strategic risks, The Caspian Post reports, citing TASS.
"If the Nikol Pashinyan-led government takes even more significant steps aimed at the total severing of allied relations with Russia, this is unlikely to yield significant benefits even in the short term, but in the medium term may create strategic risks for Armenia's national security and the existence of modern Armenian statehood," the report says.
The authors of the report point out that underestimation of the probability of resolute actions by Armenia's geopolitical opponents, as well as overestimation of the ability of the EU and NATO to ensure its security, in combination with utter disregard for the socio-economic consequences of such decisions, can entail "fatal consequences."
"The choice in favor of further development on the basis of its own cultural and historical heritage and centuries-old positive experience of relations with Russia can open for Armenia the prospect of preserving sovereignty and international and political agency, ensuring security and active participation in building a prosperous and secure Eurasia," the report states.
The paper notes that the choice of the Armenian leadership regarding the prospects of the country's development, its foreign policy priorities and relations with partners is "the right of the government of a sovereign state, which has not only the right to make this choice, but also the full responsibility first of all to the Armenian people regarding the results of the decisions made."
"The current Armenian leadership’s drift away from a multi-vector foreign policy and from full participation in the CSTO activities, and the unambiguous turn towards the EU and NATO, with the subsequent curtailment of the deep interdependence in the sphere of the economy and security between Armenia and Russia, brings the country to a point of historical uncertainty - bifurcation," the authors believe.
About the freeze of Yerevan's participation in the CSTO the authors of the report say that Russia does not benefit from further deterioration of relations with Armenia, but it is not in Moscow's interests to preserve the current situation of Armenia's sabotage of the organization's activities.
"At present, Armenia's political transit to the West is actually paid for by the economic benefits of cooperation with Russia. Besides, Russia traditionally views the CSTO and the EAEU as interrelated integration associations - one in the field of security and the other in the field of socio-economic cooperation," the report emphasizes.
