Central Asia has long been a stage for geopolitical contests over resources. If oil and gas dictated the rules in the past, water is now taking center stage. The region's two largest rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, have become the focus of intense attention from the United States, which is actively engaging in regional water management through USAID.
These initiatives, presented as environmental and humanitarian projects, are, in fact, aimed at gaining control over strategic water flows. For instance, the U.S. is already implementing programs in the Syr Darya basin and is seeking to establish a foothold on the Amu Darya through the construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan.
This raises the question: are these actions motivated by a desire to assist the region, or are they an attempt to strengthen U.S. influence while undermining the positions of Russia, China, and Iran?
Divergent Approaches to Water Use
The water-energy issues between downstream and upstream countries in Central Asia stem from differing approaches to water resource utilization. This perspective was shared with The Caspian Post by Kyrgyz political analyst Arsen Usenov.
According to him, downstream countries assert their right to utilize water that flows naturally or through artificial canals from upstream nations, while emphasizing the obligation of those nations to maintain agreed water volumes and refrain from actions harmful to downstream users.
Conversely, upstream countries view water as a national asset or state property, which should be compensated.
"Currently, water-energy negotiations in Central Asia are proceeding relatively constructively," says Usenov. "The countries are focused on rational solutions to this long-standing issue, including the potential inclusion of Afghanistan in discussions. It's crucial to establish dialogue that respects downstream countries' access to sufficient water volumes while recognizing upstream countries' rights to compensation for water resources through energy supplies or other goods. Moreover, nations could adopt modern, water-efficient irrigation technologies."
According to Usenov, the closest approach to this (compensation to upstream nations) was an agreement signed in 1998. However, it was never implemented due to various reasons, including parties failing to fulfill their commitments and the lack of effective compensation mechanisms.
"Another crucial step would be reforming the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) to account not only for the Aral Sea's protection but for all regional water resources, including glaciers and Lake Issyk-Kul, which has seen reduced inflows in recent years, threatening its water levels," Usenov concludes.
Control over the Syr Darya: The First Step
Stretching through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan, the Syr Darya has already become a platform for American strategies.
USAID, through programs like the "Regional Water and Environment Project," presents itself as a guarantor of "water security." These projects aim to strengthen regional capacities, but water flow management is effectively handled by American experts.
According to USAID's official information, the programs cover a wide range of activities, from ecological restoration to water balance monitoring. However, experts argue that the U.S. uses these efforts to gain leverage over regional policies.
Water-energy resource challenges in Central Asia have evolved from local issues into a regional dilemma. Addressing water and energy separately is impractical since the Syr Darya and Amu Darya form the core of both energy and irrigation systems in Central Asia.
This viewpoint was shared with The Caspian Post by Ernest Karybekov, former chairman of the Institute for the Study of Water Problems and Hydro-Energy Resources in Central Asia.
Energy and Irrigation: A Lost Balance
According to Karybekov, before the Soviet Union's collapse, the region's hydroelectric stations operated in irrigation mode, meeting the summer needs of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. However, the shift to an energy-focused model prioritized electricity generation in the fall and winter, creating a conflict of interest. Water needed for agriculture in summer was now being used for power generation in winter.
"Water accumulation downstream leads to evaporation and absorption into the soil and sands. Consequently, the volume of water reaching the Aral Sea has drastically decreased, exacerbating the region's ecological and social problems," the expert notes.
Amu Darya and the Qosh Tepa Canal: A New Target
The region's second-largest river, the Amu Darya, has become the next focus. In Afghanistan, the Qosh Tepa Canal construction has begun, designed to irrigate over a million acres of land and consume 13 billion cubic meters of water annually.
Experts indicate that Afghanistan's water resources total 70 billion cubic meters annually, of which only 20% is utilized domestically, with the remaining 80% flowing to Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asia. In recent decades, Afghanistan has constructed several large reservoirs and dams on the Helmand River, sparking disputes with Iran.
According to analysis by National Interest, the project could drastically alter the water balance in Central Asia. Its greatest impact would be felt by downstream countries such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Experts warn that without a multilateral agreement among regional nations, the project poses significant ecological and social risks.
The U.S. offers support for the Qosh Tepa project through international banks and diplomatic mechanisms, but its primary goal appears to be using the canal to strengthen its regional influence.
This strategic initiative allows Washington to manage water resources, weaken competitors like China, Russia, and Iran, and exert control over regional processes.
Geopolitical Ambitions and Regional Security
American financial assistance through USAID, amounting to $600 million, seems to be part of a broader strategy:
1. Control over Water Resources: Infrastructure projects like this enable the U.S. to influence Central Asian nations dependent on transboundary rivers.
2. Leverage for Diplomatic Pressure: Funding gives Washington the ability to manipulate regional relationships and decisions.
3. Enhancing Image Among Afghans: Humanitarian aid helps soften perceptions of U.S. policies, despite frozen Afghan assets.
As Uzbek political analyst Kamoliddin Rabbimov notes, "Qosh Tepa is not just a canal, but a geopolitical tool. Its construction threatens regional water security and turns Central Asia into a field for external influence."
Karybekov concludes that external factors amplify regional conflicts. Institutions like USAID and the World Bank often prioritize external interests over regional balance.
Systemic Solutions Needed
To address these challenges, experts propose:
1. Comprehensive analysis of water usage from upstream nations to downstream regions.
2. Investments in modern reservoirs to minimize evaporation.
3. A unified regional strategy for water and energy distribution.
Without such steps, water-energy challenges will continue to fuel conflicts and hinder development.
The Context of Afghanistan’s Frozen Assets
After the Taliban regained power in August 2021, the U.S. froze $7 billion worth of Afghanistan's central bank assets. However, Washington continues to fund projects through USAID and international organizations like the UN.
This creates a contradictory picture: on the one hand, the U.S. declares non-recognition of the Taliban regime; on the other, it engages with them indirectly through economic levers. Washington both criticizes and sustains Afghanistan’s governance-on its own terms and for its own interests.
Water Security or Pressure Tactics?
The United States frequently uses the term "water security," emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive approach to resource management. However, any mention of alternative scenarios, such as cooperation with China, Russia, or Iran, is systematically excluded.
This suggests that behind the façade of noble intentions lie geopolitical ambitions.
American analysts openly state that managing water resources is essential for "regional prosperity." Yet, as noted by National Interest, the primary beneficiary remains Washington.
Funding for the Qosh Tepa Canal through USAID-approximately $600 million-likely forms part of the U.S.'s broader regional strategy:
1. Control Over Water Resources: Infrastructure projects allow the U.S. to exert influence over Central Asian countries reliant on transboundary rivers.
2. Creating Leverage: Financial backing enables Washington to pressure the Taliban and manipulate relationships among regional countries, such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which have expressed concerns about the Qosh Tepa project.
3. Improving U.S. Image Among Afghans: Continuing humanitarian aid helps soften perceptions of U.S. policies among the Afghan population, despite frozen assets.
As prominent Uzbek political analyst Kamoliddin Rabbimov states: "The Qosh Tepa Canal is not merely a waterway but a tool of geopolitical maneuvering. Its construction endangers the region’s water security and positions Central Asia as a stage for external influence."
According to Karybekov, external factors exacerbate regional conflicts. For example, U.S. institutions like the World Bank and USAID actively support projects such as the construction of the Kambarata Hydropower Plant-1 (funding feasibility studies and other minor requirements) and the CASA-1000 power transmission line (which has already been completed in Kyrgyzstan).
However, international financial organizations do not always consider the balance of interests among regional nations. This extends to programs aimed at saving the Aral Sea, which external actors often use to sow discord among Central Asian states.
To upstream countries, these actors claim that downstream neighbors are the problem, while telling downstream states that hydropower projects upstream are the real threat. This led Kyrgyzstan to withdraw from agreements.
"Neighboring countries are concerned about potential changes to the operational regime of the Kambarata Hydropower Plant-1. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan fear the project could be used as a political pressure tool.
To mitigate these fears, neighboring nations proposed participating in the project to share its benefits and responsibilities. However, external actors show little interest in this collaborative approach. At the same time, agreements under the CASA-1000 initiative obligate Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to supply electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, despite their internal energy shortages," Karybekov emphasizes.
Who Controls Water Controls the Region
The growing U.S. role in managing water resources risks causing significant consequences, including increased tensions among regional countries, ecological disasters, and even social conflicts.
Central Asia's historical experience demonstrates that nations can reach agreements independently. However, the geopolitical ambitions of external actors like the U.S. undermine this potential.
Who will control Central Asia’s water? The answer remains unclear, but the region's balance of power increasingly tilts toward external actors, jeopardizing stability and sovereignty.
"Those who control water resources control not only the land but also the future of nations," said Henry Kissinger.
The Need for Systemic Solutions
As Ernest Karybekov points out, the region requires a comprehensive approach to managing water and energy resources. It is essential to:
1. Analyze current water usage from upstream nations like Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan to downstream countries.
2. Invest in constructing modern reservoirs in mountainous areas, where low temperatures minimize evaporation.
3. Develop a unified regional strategy that includes equitable water and energy distribution.
"External players must refrain from pursuing geopolitical agendas and instead support projects that foster regional integration and mutually beneficial cooperation. Without decisive steps, water-energy challenges will remain a source of conflict, hindering economic development and undermining regional stability," Karybekov concludes.
Control over water in Central Asia has become a tool of geopolitical pressure. The U.S.'s attempts to manage the Syr Darya and Amu Darya, under the guise of humanitarian objectives, ultimately threaten the sovereignty of regional states.
The historically cooperative water management system, based on multilateral agreements, risks being dismantled by external interference.
"Water resources are not only a source of life but also an instrument of power capable of redrawing political maps," noted political analyst Andrew C. Kuchins.
The question of water control is both an ecological and political challenge.
Central Asia faces the urgent task of balancing regional interests and preventing water from becoming a tool of external dominance.
Thus, U.S. support for the Qosh Tepa Canal may not be as much about aiding Afghanistan as it is about expanding its influence in Central Asia. The U.S. is leveraging water resources to dictate terms and shape regional dynamics-another strategic move aligned with Washington’s long-term interests in Eurasia.
Sources:
1. "The Taliban's Canal" (Andrew C. Kuchins, Elvira Aidarkhanova, Najibullah Sadid, Zekria Barakzai, The National Interest, December 19, 2024);
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-road-rivalries/taliban%E2%80%99s-canal-214129
2. USAID Regional Water and Vulnerable Environment Activity;
https://www.usaid.gov/ru/central-asia-regional/fact-sheets/usaid-regional-water-and-vulnerable-environment-activity
3. USAID Environmental Restoration of the Aral Sea Ecosystem Project;
https://www.usaid.gov/ru/central-asia-regional/fact-sheets/environmental-restoration-aral-sea-i-eras-i-activity
