Central Asia demonstrated growing autonomy and economic resilience in 2024, marked by robust GDP growth and deepening regional cooperation. While maintaining balanced relations with Russia and China, the five states strengthened ties with Azerbaijan, Turkiye and the EU through major infrastructure initiatives like the Middle Corridor. Even amid domestic political challenges, Central Asian leaders are successfully navigating complex geopolitical currents while advancing economic integration.
In 2024, Central Asia enjoyed economic growth and avoided conflicts despite the ongoing war in nearby Ukraine. The year was characterised by frequent meetings of the five presidents in the now-established C5 pattern and by positive developments to improve East-West connectivity, with the European Union, China and multilateral development banks promising infrastructure funding for the Middle Corridor, The Caspian Post reports citing foreign media.
Political and economic cooperation in Central Asia intensified in 2024, especially in transport, trade and agriculture. The Asian Development Bank’s September 2024 Asian Development Outlook forecast GDP growth of 3.6 per cent in Kazakhstan, 6.3 per cent in the Kyrgyz Republic, 6.5 per cent in Tajikistan, 6.5 per cent in Turkmenistan and 6.0 per cent in Uzbekistan for 2024. Inflation was forecast between 5 and 10 per cent.
In 2024, regional diplomacy centred on the sixth annual Consultative Meeting of Heads of State of Central Asia, held in Astana in August. The annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit was also held in Astana on 3-4 July. Bilateral C5+1 meetings included meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in January, Japan’s then-prime minister Fumio Kishida in August and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in September. As UK foreign minister, David Cameron visited all five countries plus Mongolia in April.
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan in July for the fifth time since 2012 - making Kazakhstan second only to Russia as the most visited destination on Xi’s presidential travels - where he reasserted support for Kazakhstan’s territorial integrity. President Xi went on to Dushanbe, where he highlighted the deepening relations between China and Tajikistan. On 30 March, senior ministers from the C5 and China launched the secretariat of the China-Central Asia cooperation mechanism in Xi’an.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also visited Central Asia, including a rare personal visit to Turkmenistan. But the sense is that Central Asia is exhibiting greater confidence as a middle power region. Neighbours remain powerful but Russia’s status as chief partner continues to diminish.
The head of state making the most visits to Central Asia was Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev. Addressing the C5 Summit in August 2024, Aliyev claimed it was his sixteenth visit to Central Asia since 2022. Azerbaijan has been cooperating especially with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in organising digital, pipeline and other cross-Caspian Sea links.
Closer relations with Azerbaijan are part of the Organization of Turkic States’ rebranding from a cultural association to a political, economic and security bloc. The Organization of Turkic States is composed of Turkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan as full members and Hungary, Turkmenistan and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as observers.
Central Asia’s most high-profile connections with Azerbaijan and Turkiye have been associated with the Middle Corridor rail link between Europe and China, which must pass through Azerbaijan if Russia and Iran are to be avoided. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimated in 2023 that the total cost of improving infrastructure would be €18.5 billion (US$18.9 billion), investment sorely needed to improve the Central Trans-Caspian Network.
In 2024, the European Union took the lead in promising funding, organising stakeholder meetings and preparing feasibility studies for the key infrastructure projects in Central Asia. The World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Islamic Development Bank and various specialised agencies also worked on providing financial and technical assistance.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China had been reluctant to actively promote the Middle Corridor routes, but this changed in 2024. Chinese investment in Georgia’s Anaklia deep sea port, the 27 December launch of the Kashi-Andijan railway, the China Railway Container Transport Corporation joining the Middle Corridor Multimodal joint venture and the revival of China-Afghanistan freight services all point to a more proactive position.
China has been especially active in Tajikistan, where fears of debt dependence have been expressed. Tajikistan’s domestic political situation was dominated after mid-2024 by an alleged coup, followed by a series of high-profile arrests. Some commentators question whether this was a genuine coup attempt or simply President Emomali Rahmon removing potential opponents to the presidential succession of his son, Rustam Emomali.
In December 2024, Tajikistan received a financing boost for the Rogun Dam when the World Bank approved a US$350 million grant. This was followed by a US$270 million loan from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and a US$100 million Kuwaiti credit line. The economic benefits from the dam remain contested.
In the Kyrgyz Republic, there were reports of assassination attempts against President Sadyr Japarov and the head of the State Committee for National Security. The President dismissed prime minister Akylbek Japarov in December. Whether his dismissal was due to his corruption or due to his fight against corruption remains unclear.
Financing of the Kyrgyz portion of the Kashi-Andijan railway remained unclear in 2024, though some reports suggested the government was willing to accept a Chinese loan of US$2.35 billion to pay for the construction. The Kyrgyz Republic concluded an agreement with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to jointly finance the construction of the Kambarata dam. Estimated to cost US$5-6 billion, it will be the biggest dam in the Kyrgyz Republic and will help to address water management issues in the three countries.
The overall impression from 2024 is that Central Asian leaders are providing solid economic leadership and managing to balance political relationships with Russia, China, Europe and Turkiye amid potential instability in Afghanistan, Iran and Ukraine. In 2024, regional cooperation steadily improved and Central Asian economies were stable, two positive developments expected to continue in 2025.
