Top officials in the Trump Administration have made countering China’s rising global influence a key foreign policy priority. In Central Asia, U.S. officials will face significant challenges in attempting to limit Beijing’s growing economic presence in the region.
Beijing has reinforced its position as the dominant economic player in the region, which sits on China’s western border, recording an almost 5 percent growth in trade turnover in 2024, according the data published by the country’s General Administration of Customs, The Caspian Post reports citing Eurasianet.
China has muscled Russia aside as the region’s top trade partner.
The figures show that the balance of 2024 trade leans heavily in China’s favor. Overall turnover with Central Asia reached $94.8 billion, up from $89.4 billion the previous year. Chinese goods and services exported to Central Asia were worth $64.2 billion, accounting for more than two-thirds of trade. Most of the $30.6 billion that China imported from Central Asia last year comprised natural resources, including oil, natural gas, rare earths, precious metals and minerals. Another major import item was fruits and other foodstuffs.
Kazakhstan remained China’s largest trade partner in the region, with bilateral trade turnover reaching $43.8 billion, a nearly 7 percent increase over the previous year’s total. Kazakhstan imported $28 billion worth of goods and services and exports totaled $15.9 billion.
Kyrgyzstan achieved the greatest percentage gain year-on-year with China, with bilateral turnover increasing by about 15 percent to $22.7 billion. The most notable aspect is that Kyrgyzstan grew its exports to China by an astounding 3,270 percent, from a relatively paltry $80 million in 2023 to $2.8 billion last year. Nevertheless, Kyrgyzstan ran a massive trade deficit with China in 2024 as imports reached $19.9 billion.
Trade with Turkmenistan, China’s third-largest trade partner in the region, was flat at $10.6 billion. But Turkmenistan remained the only Central Asian state to record a trade surplus with Beijing. Ashgabat’s exports totaled $9.6 billion, while imports were limited to just over $1 billion. The Turkmen surplus is far from an anomaly. The country’s favorable balance of trade with China dates back at least to 2014, which is as far back as GACC data goes.
Uzbekistan experienced a marginal decline in Chinese trade by about 2 percent to just under $13.8 billion, with exports to China amounting to $2 billion and imports $11.8 billion.
Tajikistan also saw a decline in bilateral turnover by nearly 2 percent to about $3.9 billion. While Dushanbe’s exports to China grew by almost 40 percent year-on-year to $350 million, Tajik imports stood at just over $3.5 billion.
Meanwhile, China’s economic influence in the Caucasus also is on the rise, with trade turnover with the region’s three countries reaching $6.5 billion in 2024, up from the previous year’s total of $5.4 billion, an increase of 22 percent. As with Central Asia, the balance of trade overwhelmingly benefited China: the Caucasus states’ imports were worth $5.3 billion, while exports amounted to $1.1 billion.
Azerbaijan accounted for the largest share of the region’s trade turnover, at nearly $2.5 billion, and showed the most growth: more than 43 percent year-on-year. But growth was driven exclusively by imports from China that soared by 55 percent to $2.4 billion, while Baku’s already negligible export total plummeted by 64 percent to $61 million.
Georgia’s trade with China grew by about 10 percent to $2.3 billion. Imports remained largely flat at around $2 billion. And while exports grew by about 142 percent, the grand total was still a relatively modest $276 million.
Armenia’s bilateral turnover increased by 15 percent to $1.8 billion. But, as with Azerbaijan, it was the expanded flow of goods from China that accounted for virtually all of the growth: Chinese imports skyrocketed by over 75 percent to exceed $1 billion, while exports shrank by around 22 percent to $768 million. Prior to 2024, Armenia had run positive trade balances with China dating back at least to 2014. Yerevan’s efforts to dramatically reduce its economic dependence on Russia likely helped push the country’s trade balance with Beijing into negative territory.
