The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly altered the relationship between Russia and Central Asia. Russia's decision to invade a neighboring country, along with the ensuing devastation, has compelled Central Asian countries to reassess their ties with the Russian Federation.
Russia is no longer seen as an “invincible superpower,” meaning it cannot be relied on to protect other members of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), The Caspian Post reports citing The Times of Central Asia.
In addition, the U.S. and European countries have levied heavy sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has attempted to evade these sanctions by conducting business with third parties, but the international community has warned several organizations and countries not to partake in these relations. Otherwise, should these businesses and countries opt to help Russia, then the international community has said that it will impose stiff penalties on these Russian intermediaries as well.
Given these events, the Central Asian states have now been actively pursuing new relationships beyond Russia to bolster national, economic, and energy security within the region. During this process, China has attempted to assert itself as Central Asia’s new ally. Like Russia, China already has a significant trade relationship with Central Asia. In addition, China is Central Asia’s largest gas consumer, meaning the Chinese have attempted to force Central Asia into an economic and energy partnership.
Despite this relationship, the countries of Central Asia have opted not to increase their reliance on China. Instead, recent developments have led them to improve their relations with the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. But how has the West strengthened its relationship with Central Asia since 2022?
Take, for example, the United States. When Russia’s invasion began in February 2022, the then U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to discuss the war. During their meeting, Secretary Blinken stated that the United States supports Central Asia’s “sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” He also said that the United States will continue to strengthen its relationship with the region. Since this meeting, Blinken has met with foreign ministers from Central Asia on several occasions in 2023 and 2024, where they further discussed how Central Asia can “develop the strongest possible capacities for their own security, their growing economic prosperity, and the strength and resilience of their societies.”
Furthermore, U.S. President Joe Biden met with senior officials from Central Asia. During his meeting with his Central Asian counterparts in September 2023, Biden said that the United States would help “invest in and develop Central Asia’s energy infrastructure.” The United States also established a new business initiative with Central Asia, where the United States has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to the region. Then, during the United States-Central Asia Trade Investment Framework Council in June 2024, the United States and the Central Asian states discussed new investment opportunities and how they could diversify trade. These discussions were well received, and the United States called for future engagements between it and Central Asia (known as the C5+1). Finally, and most recently, newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated that the U.S. government should continue to build its relationship with Central Asia.
Outside the United States, the United Kingdom has also worked hard to strengthen relations with Central Asia. For example, in the autumn of 2023, the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee published a report that called for the British government to strengthen relations with Central Asia. In the report, the committee stated that the UK should offer assistance to the five countries of Central Asia, and that the UK should assist Central Asia with democratization efforts.
The UK also adopted the American model with Central Asia to further this dialogue. In February 2024, the UK established its version of the C5+1 to strengthen relations between the UK and the Central Asian states. Then, in May 2024, then-British Foreign Secretary David Cameron traveled to Central Asia to meet with his counterparts. During the visit, the UK announced a new commitment, where it would send $62.5 million in funding over three years to the region. This suggests that the UK is serious about improving its relationship with Central Asia. Following these events, the UK has continued to strengthen its relationship with Central Asia. Most recently, the House of Lords of the British Parliament appointed Lord John Alderdice as the UK’s trade envoy to Azerbaijan and Central Asia. This development suggests that the UK is serious in continuing to develop its trade relationship with Central Asia, and it allows for greater cooperation between British officials and their counterparts in the region.
Finally, having observed the successes of the U.S. and the UK, the European Union has opted to strengthen its engagements with Central Asia. In October 2023, representatives from the EU met with their counterparts from Central Asia to discuss how they can “facilitate trade within and beyond” Central Asia. They explored ideas for enhancing trade relations, and they emphasized the need to strengthen security cooperation.
Then, in 2024, senior EU dignitaries traveled to the region to discuss the need for improving EU-Central Asian relations. During the meeting, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said that the EU is committed to “further developing relations” with Central Asia. In addition, the EU announced that it would organize its first-ever EU-Central Asia Summit. This platform will allow the EU to continue building its relationship with Central Asia, and the creation of the forum suggests that the EU is “truly committed to expanding relations” with the region. The summit will be held in April 2025.
Overall, a lot has changed in Central Asia over the past few years. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Central Asian states have sought to strengthen their political, defense, economic, and energy relationship with the West. Dignitaries from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have held meetings with their counterparts from the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union. These meetings had positive results, and these engagements suggest that Central Asia is being taken seriously by the West. Aside from these political gatherings, the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union have also committed millions of dollars in assistance to the region.
In other words, the meetings held between Central Asia and the West have been promising over the past two years, and the continued dialogue suggests that Central Asia will continue to build its relationship with the U.S., UK, and EU. Time will tell how this relationship between Central Asia and the West will grow in 2025.
