The intensifying conflict sparked by Israel's large-scale military campaign against Iran has evolved into a broader security crisis, affecting not only the Middle East but also neighboring Central Asia, due to regional proximity and existing political ties. Beginning on June 13, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and key military assets. In response, Tehran retaliated with hundreds of drone and missile attacks.
Although the hot zone of the conflict is Iranian territory, the effects of this war have been felt throughout the region, starting with Turkmenistan, which has a direct land border with Iran, The Caspian Post reports citing Daily Sabah.
For the Central Asian states, the issue is not just a "foreign crisis" but a multidimensional problem with direct economic, security and geopolitical repercussions. The security of trade routes through Iran, the sustainability of technological partnerships with Israel and the potential for Iranian instability to affect societies may push Central Asian countries to redefine their balance policies.
Search for strategic balance
Central Asian countries, especially Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, maintain direct relations with Iran through energy and logistics cooperation. Iran's natural gas trade with Turkmenistan is one of the gateways of Turkmenistan's economy to foreign trade, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan use Iranian ports as alternative export routes. However, relations with Israel have also deepened remarkably in recent years. In particular, Israel's cooperation in agricultural technologies, water management, defense systems and cybersecurity provides Central Asian countries with an important channel for integration with the West.
The war between these two countries is a test that could damage Central Asia's multilateral foreign policy line. While Iran has occasionally used religious and cultural elements to increase its ideological influence in the region, Israel has preferred to establish functional partnerships in the field of technology and security. For instance, Israel's intelligence and defense cooperation through Azerbaijan creates a serious threat perception for Iran and makes Israeli influence in Central Asia a direct target. Indeed, intelligence reports that Tehran is trying to use some Central Asian nationals in anti-Israeli activities further complicate this security equation.
Moreover, the cautious and diplomatic tone of the regional states in their recent statements against Iran shows that they want to remain loyal to the principle of neutrality. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan's security warnings to their citizens show how closely regional tensions are being monitored, while the avoidance of direct criticism of Iran indicates that a cautious approach is preferred due to energy dependence and logistical partnerships. In this process, the Central Asian countries have to pursue an independent and multifaceted balancing policy that is free from external pressures and takes into account the reaction of domestic public opinion.
Fragile ties, rising risks
One of the most tangible and short-term effects of the Iran-Israel War on Central Asia will be the disruption of transport and energy corridors that integrate the countries of the region into world trade. The North-South Transport Corridor through Iran constitutes a strategic transit network, especially on the Russia-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran line, connecting Central Asia to India, the Gulf countries and the Indian Ocean. Iranian ports function here not only as a physical link, but also as a political alternative to opening up to the outside world. However, due to the nature of the war, Israel's targeting of Iran's nuclear facilities and logistics infrastructure dramatically exposed the fragility of this network.
A concrete example of this fragility is the Chabahar Port. Directly invested in by India and supported by the U.S. by excluding it from some of the sanctions imposed on Iran, this port offers an alternative exit gate to China's Gwadar Port, especially for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. However, if the war escalates and Chabahar is targeted or its logistical security is compromised, the foreign trade routes of Central Asian countries through Iran will be severely disrupted. This could directly affect export-import chains and regional logistics prices, leading to high inflation, increased transit times and deepening external dependency in fragile economies.
On the other hand, the Israel-Iran war directly threatens aviation security. The closure or risk of Iranian airspace has put Kazakhstan-based airlines in a difficult situation. Companies such as Air Astana and FlyArystan had to change their routes to reach important destinations such as Dubai, Doha, Sharm El Sheikh and Medina, leading to increased costs and longer journey times. This development reveals that the war has indirectly affected even the daily lives of the people of Central Asia.
However, the issue is not limited to trade. In the current crisis environment, Iran's quest to radicalize some elements in Central Asia within the framework of its ideological and security-based foreign policies is a significant source of threat for the region. It is known that in the past, groups close to Iran have tried to attract individuals from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and even Kyrgyzstan into various ideological networks. The fact that three Uzbek nationals involved in the murder of Israeli rabbi Zvi Kagan in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2024 were allegedly associated with a radical cell linked to Iran increases the seriousness of this threat. This increases the risk of external radicalization, especially in countries with young and economically fragile societies.
Another possible consequence of a war environment is migration and refugee pressure. In the event of increasing civil unrest, security weaknesses or the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Iran, the possibility of a civilian migration movement, especially to the east, cannot be ruled out. For countries with direct land borders with Iran, such as Turkmenistan, this development is not only a humanitarian crisis, but also a multilayered issue that needs to be managed in terms of border security, resource planning and social tensions.
All these factors make it imperative for Central Asia to reassess its security architecture. Regional platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) should be made more functional not only on a symbolic level but also in terms of practical intelligence sharing, border surveillance and crisis management.
Although a temporary cease-fire has been reached between Iran and Israel, and regional tensions seem to have eased for the time being, it remains uncertain how long this fragile stability will last. Therefore, for the Central Asian countries, this war is not only an external crisis, but also a dynamic threat area that directly affects their economic veins, social balances and security priorities. Therefore, it is inevitable for the states of the region to develop proactive and scenario-based policies based on strategic foresight, security coordination and foreign trade diversification instead of a static and passive attitude.
