Bounded by the Caspian Sea to the west, Afghanistan and Iran to the south, Russia to the north, and China’s Xinjiang province to the east, Central Asia is both geographically and strategically significant. Today, the rivalry between China and Russia over influence in the region epitomizes the complexities of modern geopolitics.
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Central Asia, a heartland and a theatre bridging Europe and Asia, has long been a focal point of geopolitical maneuvering. Defined by its proximity to great powers—Russia, China, and Iran—it has served as a historic crossroads for trade, culture, and political ambitions, The Caspian Post reports citing Eurasia Review.
Bounded by the Caspian Sea to the west, Afghanistan and Iran to the south, Russia to the north, and China’s Xinjiang province to the east, Central Asia is both geographically and strategically significant. Today, the rivalry between China and Russia over influence in the region epitomizes the complexities of modern geopolitics.
Historical Context
Historically, Russia has dominated Central Asia, treating it as its backyard. This dominance was institutionalized during the Soviet era, with Central Asian states integrated into Moscow’s political, economic, and cultural orbit. However, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the newly independent Central Asian republics began seeking diverse partnerships to balance Russian influence. This shift created opportunities for China to expand its presence.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, is central to Beijing’s strategy in Central Asia. The BRI aims to enhance connectivity across Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa, with Central Asia playing a pivotal role. The initiative includes ambitious projects such as:
- China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor: Linking China’s western regions to Central Asia and further into the Middle East.
- China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Connecting Central Asia to South Asia via Pakistan.
- Khorgos Gateway: Positioned as the “New Dubai,” this dry port on the Kazakhstan-China border facilitates trade across Eurasia.
These projects are not merely economic but also strategic. They provide China with access to vital resources, secure energy supplies, and expand its influence across a region historically under Russian hegemony.
Economic and Cultural Penetration
Central Asia is a resource rich region and hence is a primary actor in China’s dream of being a superpower. China engages with the region by more of its economic diplomacy promoting investments and manufacturing units in the region in concurrence with geoeconomic principles. China’s massive economic investments in Central Asia have tried to reshape the regional economic order.
Culturally, China has established 11 Confucius Institutes across the region to promote its language and values. However, public perception remains mixed. While elites welcome Chinese investments, many citizens are wary of Beijing’s intentions, perceiving its cultural and economic expansion as overreach.
Russia’s Diminishing Grip and Strategic Concerns
Russia has traditionally regarded Central Asia as a sphere of influence. Through military alliances like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and economic frameworks like the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Moscow has sought to maintain its dominance. However, several factors have eroded Russia’s position:
- The War in Ukraine: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has drained its resources and diverted attention away from Central Asia. The war has also damaged Moscow’s reputation, leading some Central Asian states to reevaluate their dependence on Russia.
- Economic Challenges: Western sanctions have weakened Russia’s economy, reducing its capacity to invest in Central Asia. In contrast, China’s economic strength allows it to offer loans, build infrastructure, and secure energy deals, outpacing Russia’s efforts.
- Demographic Shifts: The influx of Russian migrants into Central Asia, fleeing the war, has created social and economic pressures in host countries.
Despite these challenges, Russia remains a significant player. Its cultural ties, historical relationships, and military presence ensure that it cannot be easily displaced. Moscow has also sought to counterbalance China’s influence by fostering closer ties with other powers, including Iran and India.
China-Russia Dynamics: Cooperation or Rivalry?
The relationship between China and Russia in Central Asia is complex. On the surface, they appear to cooperate, with both nations opposing Western influence in the region. However, beneath this facade lies fierce competition.
- Economic vs. Strategic Dominance: There is an implicit understanding that Russia retains strategic control while China focuses on economic interests. However, Beijing’s military activities in Tajikistan and growing influence in Kazakhstan have blurred these lines.
- Competing Economic Visions: China’s BRI often overlaps with Russia’s EAEU, creating friction. For example, Central Asian states have been cautious about joining the EAEU, fearing that it would limit their economic autonomy, a concern amplified by China’s alternative offerings.
- Public Perception: While Russia is seen as a traditional partner, China’s rapid rise has sparked concerns about its long-term intentions, particularly among the broader public.
Central Asia’s Perspective: Balancing Great Powers
Central Asian leaders face the delicate task of balancing ties with both Russia and China. Their primary concern is regime survival and economic growth. For now, they view Russia and China as allies rather than threats, given their shared authoritarian values and economic support.
- Kazakhstan has leaned towards China for trade while maintaining security ties with Russia.
- Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, heavily indebted to China, remain reliant on Moscow for security guarantees.
- Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, more independent, have sought to diversify their partnerships, including outreach to Turkey, India, and the West.
Central Asia is emerging as a key theatre for China’s strategic , economic and geopolitical motivations , driven by Beijing’s long term vision. Key reasons for China’s increasing footprint in Central Asia include:
1. Strategic Importance:
Geopolitical Leverage: Central Asia serves as a buffer zone between China and key global powers such as Russia and the United States. China’s relentless and assertive foreign policy solidifies its geopolitical position.
Security concerns: China’s strategic interests in Central Asia are intertwined with its stability in Xinjiang province, home to the Uyghur muslim minority. China seeks to thwart the spread of extremist ideologies and maintain stability along its western borders.
2. Economic Interests:
Belt and Road Initiative: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, is central to Beijing’s strategy in Central Asia. The BRI aims to enhance connectivity across Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa, with Central Asia playing a pivotal role. The initiative includes ambitious projects such as:
- China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor: Linking China’s western regions to Central Asia and further into the Middle East.
- China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Connecting Central Asia to South Asia via Pakistan.
- Khorgos Gateway: Positioned as the “New Dubai,” this dry port on the Kazakhstan-China border facilitates trade across Eurasia.
These projects are not merely economic but also strategic. They provide China with access to vital resources, secure energy supplies, and expand its influence across a region historically under Russian hegemony.
Energy Security: Central Asia is rich in natural resources including oil and gas. China has invested heavily in pipelines and energy infrastructure to secure a stable supply of energy.
3. Declining Russian influence:
Shifting power dynamics as Russia faces economic challenges and geopolitical isolation due to its involvement in Ukraine, its influence in Central Asia has waned creating a vacuum that China is eager to fill.
Economic Dominance: China’s economic clout overshadows Russian economic influence as it credits more capital into the region.
4. Multilateral Engagement:
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): China leverages platforms like SCO to bolster the security cooperation and deepen its ties in Central Asian countries.
Soft Power Diplomacy: China fosters cultural and educational exchanges through the initiatives like Confucius institutes and scholarships in Central Asia.
5. Local Opportunities:
Infrastructural Gaps: China’s construction prowess and the infrastructure in Central Asia is obligated to be mutually beneficial for both China and Central Asia.
Debt Diplomacy: Central Asia depends upon China up to a massive extent in the field of FDI and foreign credits.
6. Countering Western Influence:
The Chinese system is often considered as the models of a viable modern authoritarian regime. When it comes to external constraints, Central Asia is encircled by an arc of autocratic regimes namely Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan and Türkiye. Thereby democracy is perceived as anarchy and threat that might lead to de-stabilisation and upsurge of conflict.
7. Control Over Trade Routes:
Eurasian Connectivity: Central Asia’s position at the crossroads of Asia and Europe makes it vital for securing trade routes and reducing dependence on maritime pathways vulnerable to disruptions.
Considering the five Central Asian countries, it is evident that this complex region is characterized by both dynamism and stagnation. By leveraging its financial resources, strategic vision and infrastructure, China is positioning itself as an indispensable partner for Central Asian nations. However, this growing footprint raises concerns about regional dependency on Beijing, local backlash against Chinese dominance and competition with other powers like Russia and Turkey.
China employs a nuanced approach to expand its influence in Central Asia, tailoring strategies for each country including investments, infrastructure projects, and bilateral relations to solidify its influence in the region.
Review Of Region
1. Kazakhstan:
China has overtaken Russia to become Kazakhstan’s main trade partner. This has bolstered the relations between both the nations. Bilateral trade volume has skyrocketed from a mere $400 million at the time of establishing diplomatic ties to more than $41 billion in 2023, a 100-fold increase. In the agricultural sector, Kazakhstan’s exports to China saw an annual increase of 84% in 2023. Over the past five years, the export of crop products from Kazakhstan to China has experienced significant growth, rising from 750,000 tons in 2019 to an impressive 3.5 million tons in 2023.The Khorgos Gateway, a vital rail link between Kazakhstan and China, is poised to become the largest dry port of the world therefore vying to become the “New Dubai” as it emerges from the new crossroads of Eurasia.
Soft Diplomacy: More visualised image of China’s soft power can be seen in Kazakhstan. There has been a clear increment in the rising popularity of china, the share of Kazakhs studying in china is much more than that of Russia. China’s strategic deployment of its soft power by proliferating 4 Confucius institutions in Kazakhstan.
2. Kyrgyzstan:
The relationship between China and Kyrgyzstan is one-sided. Kyrgyzstan is of less interest to China due to its small market area. China and BRI have Aided Kyrgyzstan . Conversely, Bishkek increasing debt and dependency are Cause for alarm. Kyrgyzstan is at a high risk of falling into “debt-trap”. China represented 36.7 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s external liabilities.
Infrastructure Projects: Key projects include road networks like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and hydroelectric developments.
Economic Integration: Kyrgyzstan’s reliance on Chinese import and Investments tie its economy closely to Beijing.
3. Uzbekistan:
Uzbekistan is an attractive and fascinating economic partner of China. China considers Uzbekistan as a country with a huge consumer market.
In 2021, China’s share in Uzbekistan’s turnover amounted to 17.7%, slightly More than the share of Russia (Eurasian Research Institute). As of July 1, 2023 China was Uzbekistan’s largest single creditor. Beijing is owned $3.8billion by Tashkent. Energy Investments: China has invested heavily in Uzbekistan’s natural gas sector, particularly through agreements with companies like Uzbekneftegaz.
Transport Connectivity: Projects such as the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor connect Uzbekistan more closely to China’s trade network.
Economic Diversification Support: Beijing provides funding for Uzbekistan’s industrial development, solidifying China’s role as a key economic partner.
Strategic Alignment: Uzbekistan, under Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has sought closer ties with China to balance its reliance on Russia.
4. Tajikistan:
Tajikistan and China are comprehensive strategic partners. PRC is the largest investor in the economy of Tajikistan. In 2023, the turnover of mutual trade reached$3.926 million billion. Around USD4.85 billion of foreign direct investment was attracted to Tajikistan during 2007-21 including USD2.1 billion from China .China has acquired significant land in disputed border areas, often in exchange for debt forgiveness.
Military Presence: Reports suggest that China maintains a military outpost in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, enhancing its security footprint.
Debt Dependency: Like Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan is heavily indebted to China, which Beijing uses as leverage for securing mineral rights and infrastructure deals.
Mining Sector Control: China dominates Tajikistan’s mining industry, particularly in gold and silver extraction.
5. Turkmenistan:
China and Turkmenistan had established their diplomatic relations in 1992. Since then they have developed close bilateral relationships, leading to the construction of the Central Asia-China Natural Gas Pipeline. According to a report published by Turkmen government website “Turkmendenizderyayollary” the trade turnover between the two countries is $2billion 598 million 884 dollars (The General Administration of Customs of China Reports).
Energy Monopsony: Turkmenistan is highly dependent on China as its largest buyer of natural gas, transported via the Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline. More than half of the natural gas necessity is exported from Turkmenistan making it a very important energy provider for China.
Investment in Infrastructure: China funds major projects related to gas extraction, transportation, and infrastructure development.
Diplomatic Leverage: Turkmenistan’s isolationist policies make it reliant on China as a key economic and trade partner, giving Beijing considerable influence.
Regional Tactics
Multilateral Forums: Through platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China promotes regional security and economic cooperation while sidelining Western influence.
Debt-Trap Diplomacy: High levels of debt in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and other countries give Beijing substantial leverage over these nations’ policies and resources.
Russia’s failing apparatus:
1. Russia’s waning Soft Power:
Since Russia is swamped on its western borders with Ukraine therefore it is falling behind in economic diplomacy against China in Central Asia. The conflict has exacerbated its ability to be diplomatically engaged in the region. The sanctions on Russia have also bolstered its declining soft power. The lacunae have been fulfilled by projects like BRI by China.
2. Central Asia’s multi-vector foreign policy:
Central Asian nations pursue multi-vector foreign policy especially in recent times in order to create a balance between major powers. Kazakhstan’s Nurly Zhol initiative can be a prime example. All the nations have opened up their economy and actively engaged with regional as well as world powers. Multi-vector foreign policy directly symbolizes the want of diversification of CARs.
3. Fierce of neo-sovietization:
Regional organisations such as CSTO and Eurasian Economic Union, having the hegemony of Russia, pose fierce neo-sovietization inside Central Asian nations. These nations see Russia’s annexation of Crimea, annexation of part of Ukraine as the direct manifestation of neo-sovietization. Statements about protecting ethnic russians abroad (North of Kazakhstan) is perceived by the region as Status Quoist Approach. In contrast China is interested only in the economics of the region which makes it a favourable partner.
4. Decline in migrant labour opportunity in Russia:
Historically millions of Central Asian migrants have relied on employment opportunities in Russia sending remittances to their own countries. However, the latest scenario in Russia has demeaned their interests in doing so and to explore the alternatives. China’s investments in infrastructure and manufacturing are creating local jobs in their home countries helping China to gain an apprehend.
5. Failures of Russia as net security provider(NSP):
Russia via CSTO has failed to keep a long lasting truce between Central Asian nations which are at horns with each other. For eg; Border disputes between kazakhstan and Tajikistan, the situation in the Nagorno- Karabakh. Kyrgyzstan in fact declined to send its army in a joint military exercise in Tajikistan lately. These incidents have detrimental Russia’s credibility as NSP in the region. China via SCO is filling up the space.
6. China’s replacing Russia’s as regions largest trading partner:
China overtook Russia as Central Asia’s biggest trading partner in 2022 with bilateral trade at a zenith of 70 billion dollars encompassing grand investments in energy, infrastructure and logistics. For e.g. Kazakhstan: China has invested in Atyrau oil refinery and Zhanatus wind farm.
The 1.4 billion dollar China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project is a major infrastructure milestone.
Turkmenistan’s supplies over 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to China through Central Asia-China gas pipeline.
The Future of Central Asia
The geopolitical contest between China and Russia in Central Asia reflects broader global trends. While China’s economic and cultural influence continues to expand, Russia clings to its historical role as the region’s dominant power. Central Asia, for its part, seeks to navigate this rivalry, leveraging its strategic location and resources to maximize benefits. Ultimately, the balance of power in Central Asia will depend on how effectively China and Russia manage their differences. As Beijing’s ambitions grow and Moscow’s challenges mount, the region will remain a crucible for great power competition, shaping the future of Eurasia in the multipolar world order.
