Recent events in Iran have garnered significant media attention. Amid the collapse of the “external security ring” that the Ayatollah regime relied on to shield itself from ideological adversaries, the country is facing a deepening economic crisis. Despite its vast oil and gas reserves, Iran struggles to supply fuel for its power plants. Industrial production has begun to decline, initially impacting small and medium-sized businesses that sustain most of the population.
Iran’s attempt to punish Syria by cutting off oil supplies has backfired, with Saudi Arabia stepping in to fill the void. The Iranian leadership now attempts to portray its involvement in Syria as merely “advisory,” claiming, “We were never there to defend a specific group or individual,” a statement widely dismissed as untrue.
Such explanations have failed to sway the new authorities in Damascus, who criticize Iran for supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime. In a speech marking the overthrow of the Syrian dictator, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggested that Syria played a “crucial role” in shaping regional events and continues to do so, hinting at broader repercussions of Assad’s fall for the region.
The Syrian crisis has forced Iran to reconsider its foreign policy, particularly with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Iranian leadership now faces a stark choice: cling to the crumbling “Axis of Resistance,” which includes allied factions in the region and the pursuit of nuclear weapons, or pivot to building new relationships with neighboring countries.
Currently, Iran is preoccupied with developments along the Iraq-Syria border, where forces loyal to the new Syrian regime have been deployed. Tehran appears trapped by its ideological commitments, raising the specter of potential fragmentation within Iran and the collapse of its allied groups.
Ironically, Iranian leaders have long spoken of dismantling Israel, yet now face the possibility of their own state unraveling. In November 2022, then-Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned of a “plot to break up Iran.” Foreign intelligence agencies, particularly from the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia, are likely working with domestic groups to exploit this instability.
Should central authority in Iran weaken-exacerbated by large-scale protests and elite infighting-separatist movements are expected to gain momentum. In Syria, Iran is widely seen as the chief supporter of the ousted regime. After the opposition came to power, Iran’s embassy in Damascus became a target of attacks. Critics now urge Iranians to celebrate Assad’s downfall, as it could end the regime’s costly financial support of Syria.
Ibrahim Motaji, a professor at Tehran University, acknowledges that Iran has lost its stature as a regional power, remarking, “Iran has shrunk to just another ordinary state.” High-ranking Iranian officials worry about the prospect of Israeli military action near their borders. Mohsen Rezaee, a former vice president and veteran of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has warned that after operations in Syria, Israel “dreams” of striking Iraq and Iran within months.
With Trump outlining clear alternatives-either concessions from Tehran or increased pressure-there is a growing likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iran with U.S. support, potentially as early as February-March 2025.
Internally, nearly 70% of the Iranian population opposes theocratic rule. Many oppressed ethnic groups yearn for a modern society and recall the era of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi with nostalgia. Although his reign was far from perfect, it was seen as preferable to the hardships under the Ayatollahs.
Whether Iran could transition to a Western-style democracy post-clerical rule remains uncertain. The Middle East is complex, and some observers point to the success of monarchies in the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait as viable alternatives. Iran now faces an existential crisis, unable to maintain its assertive foreign policy. Its immediate priority is to avert economic and political collapse, especially amid speculation about the impending departure of Ali Khamenei from the political stage.
The situation in Iran resembles the “perestroika” era, with a thaw in relations with the West and significant internal changes potentially leading to separatism, state disintegration, or even a restoration of the Pahlavi monarchy. While Reza Pahlavi is not currently a major threat to the regime, Iranian security forces occasionally link armed domestic groups to his supporters.
In the event of severe destabilization, unexpected figures may rise to prominence. Reza Pahlavi symbolizes the hope for an Iran free from clerical dictatorship. Advocating for a secular state with democratic elections open to all parties, he has publicly pledged to return as a constitutional monarch.
In April 2023, Pahlavi visited Israel at the invitation of Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel, meeting President Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As in politics, such visits are rarely coincidental.
