Uzbekistan’s gross general debt is projected to reach 39% of GDP in 2024, a level considered moderate by global standards. Most of this debt originates from official creditors under concessional terms. The agency’s stable outlook reflects robust growth prospects, balanced against challenges posed by debt accumulation.
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S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Uzbekistan’s long-term sovereign credit rating at BB, with an annual economic growth forecast of 5.6% from 2024 to 2027. This growth will be driven by public investment and private consumption. Although rising public and external debt pose some risks, S&P expects fiscal and current account deficits to narrow after peaking in 2023, The Caspian Post reports citing foreign media.
Economic Projections
Uzbekistan’s gross general debt is projected to reach 39% of GDP in 2024, a level considered moderate by global standards. Most of this debt originates from official creditors under concessional terms. The agency’s stable outlook reflects robust growth prospects, balanced against challenges posed by debt accumulation.
The country’s economy expanded by 6.6% in the first nine months of 2024, fueled by sectors such as construction, trade, and communications. Investments continue to play a pivotal role, with Uzbekistan maintaining one of the world’s highest investment-to-GDP ratios at 34%. Key investment areas under the “Uzbekistan – 2030” strategy include energy, transport, agriculture, and tourism.
Diversification and Energy Goals
As part of efforts to diversify energy sources, Uzbekistan is targeting 40% green energy by 2030. Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power has pledged $7.5 billion in investments for electricity projects. The government is also expanding exports of critical resources such as copper, gold, silver, and uranium to boost revenue streams.
Opportunities and Risks
Despite challenges such as low GDP per capita and reliance on remittances, Uzbekistan benefits from a young workforce and rising foreign investment. However, risks remain, including potential sanctions on companies linked to Russia and difficulties in creating sufficient jobs.
In 2024, remittance inflows – primarily from Russia, along with Germany and South Korea – increased by 35%, providing a significant economic boost. Trade with Russia also grew by 26%, and Uzbekistan signed a two-year gas import contract with Gazprom. Meanwhile, the government is taking steps to mitigate the risks of secondary sanctions stemming from its trade ties with Russia.
Broader Context
These developments align with Uzbekistan’s long-term economic strategies while highlighting both opportunities and vulnerabilities. S&P’s latest forecasts reaffirm the country’s growth trajectory, supported by strategic investments and economic reforms, yet underscore the importance of managing debt and external risks.
