Tehran Prepares for Battle: What Awaits Iran if Trump Returns

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The potential return of Donald Trump to power in the United States appears to be a grim prospect for Iran. In a country where negative attitudes toward the former president are already well established, his possible return is a source of concern and anxiety. For Tehran, Trump represents a symbol of harsh policies, unprecedented economic pressure, and an aggressive course aimed at destabilizing Iran. His administration's approach from 2016 to 2020, particularly its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and implementation of sanctions, left no doubt about his commitment to suppress Iran. This possibility, even in 2024, continues to raise concerns in Tehran and forces the country to ask how it might counter a renewed “maximum pressure” campaign should Trump return to power.

Economic Blow: The Price of Sanctions

The sanctions imposed by the Trump administration have had a devastating impact on Iran's economy. One of the heaviest losses for the country was the significant reduction in oil exports. Previously, Iran exported 4–4.5 million barrels of oil per day, but under the pressure of sanctions, this volume dropped to a record low of 0.7 million barrels daily. The severity of these restrictions deprived Iran of vital revenues, sparking a crisis that hindered funding for social programs, infrastructure projects, and other critical sectors.

The sanctions also hit key economic sectors such as metallurgy, aviation, and automotive production, seriously affecting the lives of millions of Iranians. Even with certain exceptions granted to eight countries, Trump remained committed to his “maximum pressure” policy. The consequences of this period were so profound that Iranians still view Trump as a symbol of relentless economic pressure. Iran's leadership understands that even after Trump’s departure, the effects of his policies will be felt for years to come.

Plans in Case of Trump’s Return: Preparing for Renewed Pressure

Iran is already preparing for action in the event of Trump’s return, anticipating that his approach may be even tougher. Tehran sees Republicans as a party willing to take risky steps and associates them with the most notable operations against Iran. One of the most painful moments was the strike against Iranian elite by the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani. Soleimani, who led the Quds Force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), became a symbol of resistance in the eyes of Iranians. His assassination in 2020, carried out with the support of American allies, left a deep mark on the national psyche, bolstering anti-American sentiment and strengthening distrust toward the U.S.

Many Iranians believe that if Trump returns, difficult times lie ahead, and they are preparing for this. Tehran seriously expects that Trump will return to a strategy of pressure through sanctions, economic isolation, and a stronger U.S. military presence in the region. However, Iran is ready to respond with more robust resistance and aims to fortify relationships with key regional allies.