The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept its global oil demand forecasts largely unchanged despite ongoing supply disruptions.

According to the group’s latest monthly report, global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, in line with previous projections. Total demand is forecast to reach 106.53 million bpd, The Caspian Post reports.

OPEC made only minor adjustments to its outlook for the coming years. The forecast for 2025 was revised slightly from 105.14 million bpd to 105.15 million bpd, while the 2026 estimate was raised from 106.52 million bpd to 106.53 million bpd. The projection for 2027 was also marginally increased from 107.86 million bpd to 107.87 million bpd.

Based on these projections, demand growth next year compared with the expected level for the current year could reach 1.34 million bpd, consistent with the estimate released by OPEC last month.

OPEC analysts say non-OECD countries will continue to drive most of the growth in global oil consumption.

In 2026, these economies are expected to account for 1.23 million bpd of the increase, rising slightly to 1.24 million bpd in 2027. By contrast, OECD countries are projected to contribute only 150,000 bpd to global demand growth this year and 110,000 bpd in 2027.

Preliminary data for January also shows a decline in OECD commercial oil inventories. Stocks fell by 19.9 million barrels month-on-month to 2.824 billion barrels. Despite the drop, inventories remain 70.5 million barrels higher than a year earlier and 9.8 million barrels above the five-year average, though still 103.1 million barrels below the 2015-2019 average used as a reference under the OPEC+ agreement on stock levels.

Within the OECD, petroleum product inventories declined by 16.9 million barrels in January to 1.511 billion barrels, while crude oil stocks decreased by 3 million barrels to 1.313 billion barrels.