Modern Kazakhstan is the largest state in Central Asia. Covering an area of 2,724,902 square kilometers, it ranks ninth in the world in terms of size. Its population exceeds 20 million people, comprising representatives of 122 ethnic groups. Historically, the country shares a 7,500-kilometer border with Russia and a 1,782.8-kilometer border with China. In the west, the republic has access to the Caspian Sea. Given its geography, Kazakhstan must navigate between Russia-its longtime economic, political, and ethnic partner-and powerful China, whose economy is now the second largest in the world. Under these circumstances, it is extremely difficult to preserve sovereignty, especially since the European Union is not a significant competitor in this context, and the United States is more focused on maintaining its own superpower status. Based on President Donald Trump’s statements, his policy is centered on reviving U.S. economic power and supporting long-standing allies. In this environment, it is unsurprising that Kazakhstan must fend for itself between its two traditional neighbors.
On November 10, 2023, a visa-free regime agreement between Kazakhstan and China came into force, intended to boost comprehensive cooperation between the two nations. Recently, the PRC has firmly occupied the position of Kazakhstan’s primary trading partner. In 2022, bilateral trade grew by almost one-third, reaching USD 24 billion. Kazakhstan’s exports to China rose by more than one-third, exceeding USD 13 billion, while imports increased by 33.5%, totaling USD 11 billion.
China is a leading global power whose innovative and technological potential enables the implementation of high-impact, breakthrough projects. However, it is a unique country with a complex history, philosophy, discipline, and attitude toward other civilizations. In this regard, many people have certain concerns related to demographics. Kazakhstan’s population is only 20 million, compared to the 1.5 billion residents of China. Under the visa-free regime, some Chinese citizens will undoubtedly discover myriad ways to remain in the country and eventually form their own “fifth column.” Furthermore, one must not forget the unequal nature of the economic exchange. Kazakhstan exports to China primarily oil, copper and copper cathodes, copper ores and concentrates, natural gas, ferroalloys, uranium, and sunflower oil-i.e., raw materials. Meanwhile, imports from China include mobile phones, computers, electric generator sets, ferrous metal products, tires, automotive and tractor parts and components, road and construction equipment, electronics, and so on.
Photo credit: cepa.org
In other words, Kazakhstan is turning into an agrarian raw-materials supplier to the PRC, suggesting a subordinate position. Many analysts believe that Kazakhstan is highly dependent on China, and that its growing external debt could threaten the country’s territorial integrity. According to political scientist Aidar Alibaev, a nation lacking a sufficiently strong army may eventually lose its independence and become a semi-colony. Armed with disproportionate economic power and financial resources, China has already acquired significant assets across Africa and has successfully taken control of strategic industrial infrastructure worldwide. Without posing too many questions, the PRC offers loans to developing countries with no strings attached-human rights issues do not factor in.
When Kazakh authorities took out inexpensive Chinese loans, they failed to recognize that the “noose” placed by China on a debtor’s neck is gradually tightened. Many African, Southeast Asian, and Latin American countries have run into this problem. Recently, Sri Lanka handed over its largest strategic port due to debt, and Tajikistan was compelled to cede a portion of territory in the Gorno-Badakhshan region amounting to 1% of its entire landmass. Nothing prevents China, once “the time is ripe,” from demanding the immediate repayment of all outstanding debt. Should the borrower refuse to pay, China, in protecting its national interests, may resort to any measures, including a military intervention. Therefore, Kazakhstan has to rely on tried-and-true allies with whom it shares years of close relations. “We have become closer to one another,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin at the conclusion of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, reflecting the current state of relations between Kazakhstan and Russia. In 2022, bilateral trade reached USD 27 billion, up from around USD 25 billion in 2021. Russia has been particularly active in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. In April 2023, the two governments signed an agreement on constructing thermal power plants in Kokshetau, Semey, and Ust-Kamenogorsk.
These projects will be carried out by the Russian Inter RAO Group. According to the draft law submitted to Kazakhstan’s parliament, Moscow will provide a preferential loan for the project. Ownership of the TPPs will be shared between Russia and Kazakhstan. At the same time, Moscow has been promoting the Russian language in the region and plans to build Russian-language schools in three southern Kazakh cities. Moreover, Kazakhstan’s parliament ratified an agreement to establish an international organization for the Russian language under the CIS framework, directly tied to expanding the Eurasian Economic Union.
In January 2024, Kazakhstan suspended its transition to the Latin alphabet. Explaining his actions during a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, President Tokayev stated that “militarily, Russia is invincible.” Astana and Moscow are both participants in a number of regional blocs, including the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Eighty percent of Kazakh oil is transported to Europe through the Caspian Pipeline, which runs across Russian territory. Under these conditions, Astana cannot entirely distance itself from Moscow.
Kazakhstan’s attempts to move closer to Western countries are unlikely to succeed-there are simply too many issues and disagreements both within the European Union and within NATO. Geography remains the decisive factor, and against this backdrop, Russia and China will remain the main partners of this resource-rich country for a long time to come. As war correspondent Vadim Yegorov noted, “Russia continues to exert influence on Kazakhstan.” Moscow can always revisit the decision on dividing the Caspian Sea, as a result of which Astana could lose access to resource extraction on the continental shelf.
