The signing of a permanent peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan has paved the way for a potential historic breakthrough in Türkiye-Armenia relations, sparking optimism for open borders, renewed diplomacy, and enhanced regional connectivity in the South Caucasus.
Hazel Çağan Elbir, analyst at the Ankara-based Center for Eurasian Studies (AVIM), said the deal, signed at the White House by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and U.S. President Donald Trump, is a “critical development” that strengthens Türkiye’s regional standing and opens new avenues for cooperation, The Caspian Post reports citing Turkish media.
“The Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement is a critical development in terms of facilitating lasting peace in the South Caucasus and offering significant opportunities that can bolster Türkiye’s regional status,” Elbir told Daily Sabah in an exclusive interview.
The treaty commits Armenia and Azerbaijan to end hostilities, respect each other’s sovereignty, open trade and travel, and dismantle the OSCE Minsk Group that for decades mediated their conflict over Karabakh.
Baku and Yerevan have been at odds since the late 1980s, when Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous Azerbaijani region, was occupied by Armenia-backed armed separatists. Azerbaijan took back full control of the region in 2023, and some 100,000 Armenians in the enclave returned to Armenia. Peace negotiations had been underway for nearly two years, with no sign of progress, until the White House stepped in.
A centerpiece in the accord is the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a multimodal corridor through southern Armenia linking mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, and, by extension, Türkiye.
Elbir said the corridor could “turn Türkiye into a strategic hub in trade and transport routes connecting Central Asia and China.”
With projects such as the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway already in place, she said, “This corridor will also enhance Türkiye’s importance in energy security and economic connectivity.”
With its geographical position, existing infrastructure and experience in regional projects, Türkiye has a rather convenient status to seize these opportunities, Elbir added.
However, she warned that the realization of this potential depends on Armenia’s commitment to the peace agreement and openness to cooperation in regional projects.
Opening a long-shut gate
The peace deal has revived hopes of reopening the Türkiye-Armenia border, closed since 1993 after Armenian forces seized territory in and around Karabakh.
Elbir said the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement offers a significant opportunity to expedite the normalization process between Türkiye and Armenia, which reset in 2021 with little progress since.
The two countries share a complex history. Armenia, for a long time, has accused Türkiye, or rather, the Ottoman Empire, of committing genocide against the Armenian population in the country during World War I. Türkiye has repeatedly denied the claims of genocide, although it has acknowledged a high number of deaths among Armenians due to isolated incidents and diseases.
“Türkiye has taken well-intentioned rapprochement steps in the past through initiatives such as the 2009 Zurich Protocols, but Armenian domestic political dynamics and diaspora pressures negated these efforts,” Elbir argued.
The 2009 Zurich Protocols were a pair of agreements signed in Switzerland by Türkiye and Armenia to restore diplomatic ties and reopen their border.
The pacts also called for a joint historical commission to study the events of World War I and promoted bilateral trade and transport links, but they were never ratified.
Türkiye linked approval to resolving Armenia’s conflict with Azerbaijan, while Armenia’s Constitutional Court added terms that Ankara said undercut the deal. Withdrawn in 2015 and voided in 2018, they remain one of the few serious but failed attempts at reconciliation.
According to Elbir, the peace agreement could push Armenia to a “more pragmatic foreign policy.”
She said that the opening of the Zangezur Corridor “will not only strengthen the Türkiye-Azerbaijan connection but also provide economic benefits by facilitating Armenia’s integration into regional trade. And this could incentivize Yerevan to improve its relations with Ankara.”
“In response to Türkiye’s goodwill, Armenia is expected to take steps such as taking on a constructive role in projects like the Zangezur Corridor; adhering to the border security commitments,” she said.
She believes Yerevan should especially focus on a peace-oriented vision based on international law against the “practically challenging” demands of diaspora groups like the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), such as returns to Karabakh.
“It should also abandon its rhetoric about Türkiye regarding World War I events and take concrete economic and diplomatic cooperation,” she added.
Armenia is notable for having a large diaspora population with influence outside the landlocked Caucasian country. The diaspora is notorious for rejecting overtures for peace from Türkiye and Azerbaijan and opposing Azerbaijani control of Karabakh while guaranteeing the safety of Azerbaijani civilians living there.
Balancing with Iran
Meanwhile, the proposed TRIPP project has incensed Türkiye’s eastern neighbor, Iran, which also borders Armenia from the south, where the corridor would cross. Citing concerns over exclusive U.S. involvement, Iran has threatened to block the plan.
“Iran has historically been wary of transit projects in the South Caucasus, considering them as threats to its own geopolitical interests,” Elbir said.
“Projects like the Zangezur Corridor and the TRIPP stoke Iranian concerns that Iran will be sidelined in regional trade routes,” she said, arguing that Tehran also foresees these projects will increase Azerbaijan and Türkiye’s regional influence and weaken Iranian influence on Armenia.
“Türkiye at this point could take an inclusive rather than exclusive approach toward Iran to navigate any potential pushback from Tehran,” Elbir said.
She suggested Ankara can ease Iran’s concerns of isolation by developing a balanced cooperation with Russia and China, which would soften Iran’s opposition.
“Türkiye can navigate this process with a decisive yet reconciliatory diplomacy by considering Iran’s sensitivities. Stressing that regional projects will provide economic opportunities for all actors could reduce Iran’s resistance and bolster the success of the peace process,” Elbir said.
