While political analysts continue to speculate on when Saudi Arabia might normalize relations with Israel, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have recently emerged as potential new partners to the Abraham Accords.
Both countries currently enjoy diplomatic relations and cooperation with Israel, which makes them distinct from other Accords countries. However, joining the Accords would still yield tangible benefits for all countries: it would allow Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan access to a network based on promoting investments that bolster regional prosperity and tolerance while strengthening Israel and the United States’ role in the Turkic and broader Muslim world, The Caspian Post reports citing foreign media.
Although the Abraham Accords were initially agreements over Israeli-Arab normalization, these pacts have since transcended Arab borders into a high-profile forum that can incorporate Muslim countries committed to shared values of tolerance, peace, and prosperity.
For Azerbaijan, the Accords could provide a path to expanded security cooperation against Iranian threats and, if pursued in coordination with Kazakhstan, progress towards its goal of becoming a bridge to Central Asia. For Kazakhstan, the Accords could help the country reduce its economic dependence on Russia and China at a time when such dependence is proving to be a liability.
Building on a strong foundation Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan already enjoy strong diplomatic and economic relations with Israel, with both countries remaining the top two suppliers of oil to the Jewish state.
Kazakhstan enjoys strong ties with Israel and the Jewish diaspora. Astana also already benefits from advanced Israeli agriculture, medical, water, and security technology. The Abraham Accords provide an opportunity to further deepen security and economic cooperation and expand beyond the primarily bilateral nature of relations with Israel.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has already taken steps to expand the Abraham Accords. Earlier this year, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s top advisor, Hikmet Hajiev, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Baku joining the Accords, according to diplomats familiar with the discussion. Mukhtar Mammadov, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Israel, later met with the Knesset co-chairs of the Abraham Accords Caucus. In a Knesset session, Israeli parliamentarians pushed for expanding the accords to Azerbaijan as well as helping bring it closer to the United States.
Nestled in the rugged Caucasus Mountains, the Republic of Azerbaijan is one of only a handful of Shia-majority countries in the world. The 2020 Abraham Accords include the Sunni-majority nations of the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Sudan, and Kosovo. If Azerbaijan joins the Accords, then it would become only the second Shia-majority country to join after Bahrain.
The added value of the Abraham Accords Joining the Abraham Accords would provide a number of additional benefits to both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, while also helping Israel and the United States strengthen their engagement with the Turkic world.
Located between Russia, China, and Iran, Central Asia is a tough neighborhood. To survive, Central Asian countries must adopt a strategy of “multi-vectoralism,” an arcane political science term for balanced relations with the surrounding heavyweights without becoming too beholden to one set of interests. Cooperation with a major global player like the United States is a valuable tool for such a strategy, and the Abraham Accords provide a potential path towards cooperation with the United States. Central Asian nations have also grouped together into the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) to cooperate on energy, defense, and other key issues.
