Kazakhstan to More Than Double Oil Refining Capacity by 2040

The Kazakh government has approved a long-term concept for the development of its oil refining industry for 2025-2040, aiming to more than double its refining capacity from 18 to 39 million tons per year, according to the Energy Ministry's report on July 22.

The expansion will be driven by upgrades to existing refineries and the construction of a new petrochemical complex. The plan targets a refining depth of 94%, a significant increase from the current 89%, and seeks to optimize the ratio of crude oil production to processing, The Caspian Post reports citing The Astana Times.

Following recent modernization of the Atyrau, Pavlodar, and Shymkent oil refineries, Kazakhstan’s total refining capacity reached 17 million tons per year. The production of motor fuels complies with Euro-4 standards and above. These improvements have already ensured that domestic demand is covered by 90-95%.

The document reflects the need to adapt to global challenges, including a projected 2-3% annual growth in demand for oil products in Asia until 2030 and the pressure of decarbonization.

Key priorities of the strategy include the full provision of the domestic market with high-quality petroleum products, with a forecast for consumption growth of 1.5-2% annually due to urbanization and industrial development.

The document also envisions increasing the share of exports to 30% of total output by 2040, focusing on China, India, and Central Asia.

Among the objectives is also development of the petrochemical sector with new value chains such as polymers and fertilizers, attracting an estimated $5 billion in investment.

The strategy will help draw foreign investment from partners, given Kazakhstan’s oil reserves of 30 billion barrels. Implementation is scheduled to begin in 2025 with pilot projects focused on refinery digitization.