The level of the Caspian Sea, the world's largest inland water body, has dropped by more than two meters since the mid-1990s, primarily impacting the shallower northern basin, The Caspian Post reports citing The Ecologist.
Local ecosystems are under threat and activities like fishing, transportation, tourism and also oil extraction are already impacted.
Didar Yesmoukhanov, the mayor of Zhanbay in Western Kazakhstan, told The Ecologist: “Ten years ago, we could see the water from the roof of this building. Now, the shoreline is 20 km away.”
Alarmingly
The sea's disappearance has transformed the economy and lifestyle of this fishing town, located 70 km west of the regional capital Atyrau.
Climate breakdown is a major factor in the Caspian Sea's decline. However, the sea also depends heavily on inflow from the Volga River, which has decreased due to Russia's growing water demands, for economic activities and population needs.
The northern basin primarily includes Kazakhstan's Atyrau region and Russia's Kalmykia and Astrakhan provinces. This is where the two major rivers, the Volga and the Ural, flow into the sea.
Arman Khairullin, an environmental activist and independent deputy of the Atyrau Regional Council, said: “The fall began in the 2000s and has intensified since 2015. Around Atyrau, the shoreline has receded 30 kilometers south. The sea is drying up, but more alarmingly, its biodiversity is collapsing.”
Disappear
The list of endangered species is long. Well-known for their expensive caviar, all six sturgeon species found in the Caspian Sea are now threatened with annihilation due to overfishing, poaching, pollution, and the declining sea level.
Local activists have reported mass die-offs of fish and seals in recent years. The Caspian seal, an endangered and endemic species, is particularly at risk, as the drying of the northern basin will directly impact its pupping grounds.
Arman Khairullin added: “In the short term, it’s a major ecological crisis with no way out. The biggest catastrophe would be an accident on an oil platform. We have no assurance that a ship could intervene quickly because of the drop in sea level.”
Scientists highlight the role of climate breakdown in the phenomenon, citing rising temperatures and increased evaporation.
A 2020 article titled The Other Side of Sea Level Change projected that the Caspian Sea will decrease by nine to 18 meters by the end of the century if no action is taken. This means up to one-third of the sea’s surface will disappear.
Sometimes I fish, but most of the time, I drive a taxi. The older generation still goes out to sea out of nostalgia, but the younger ones rarely do, due to the lack of fish.
Loss
Beyond climate change, many in Kazakhstan attribute part of the responsibility to Russia's actions. Arman Khairullin said: “Another main cause is that Russia has built infrastructures on the Ural and the Volga and is keeping the water there.”
The Volga, which supplies 80 per cent of the freshwater flowing into the Caspian Sea, and most of the Ural River lie within Russia's borders. Large reservoirs primarily support agricultural and energy needs, while also serving as a key source of drinking water for Russian cities.
The spring of 2024 saw a dramatic flood in the Ural basin, while the previous year, water levels were so low during the summer that Atyrau's residents could cross the river on foot, and boats remained stranded on the banks.
Laura Malikova, chairperson at the Kazakh Association of Practising Ecologists, said: “As far as the Ural and Volga are concerned, despite the Russian side’s willingness to discuss the problems, they are just following their national interest.
"They don’t want to suffer any economic loss by releasing more water to Kazakhstan.”
Cooperation
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan border the Caspian Sea. All five nations are signatories to the Tehran Convention, formally adopted in 2003, which serves as a key institutional framework for promoting environmental protection in the Caspian region.
The five countries have adopted several protocols, including two addressing pollution and one focused on preserving wildlife. However, these agreements still ignore the issue of the declining sea level.
Authorities have long taken a passive stance, reassured by some scientific reports suggesting that the Caspian Sea's fluctuations are part of a natural rise-and-fall cycle.
Recently, however, they have adopted a more proactive approach as key economic activities face growing threats. The state of the Caspian Sea was a focal point at the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital and the largest city on the Caspian shore. While Azerbaijan aimed to develop a regional plan to address the issue, the initiative has yet to be revealed.
Inger Andersen, the executive director of UNEP, described at COP29 the situation as a crisis that could “devastate ecosystems and species, threaten livelihoods, and jeopardize food security and stability across the region.” She urged for “bold action” and enhanced regional cooperation.
Plummeted
One of the most striking consequences could be mass migration, as many coastal communities risk losing their livelihoods as fishermen or farmers. According to Inger Andersen, the environmental crisis could displace up to five million people by mid-century.
Damba is a large fishing village near Atyrau which has turned into a residential suburb. Meyrambek, 28, a resident of Damba, said: "Sometimes I fish, but most of the time, I drive a taxi. The older generation still goes out to sea out of nostalgia, but the younger ones rarely do, due to the lack of fish."
The fall of fish populations have affected communities like Damba and Zhanbay. Zhanbay mayor Didar Yesmoukhanov said: “We used to have plenty of fish and caviar. Now, the water is gone, and so are the fish.”
In Zhanbay, the official fishing season lasts a few months, in spring and autumn, and now focuses mainly on carp. Due to low living standards, many people continue to fish sturgeon illegally despite the meager catches. Yesmoukhanov added: "Now, fishing for sturgeon is illegal, and the fines are high. We used to eat it all the time, and we miss it."
Beyond sturgeon, other fish species are also under threat. In Kazakhstan, catfish and pike are disappearing, prompting authorities to impose a temporary fishing ban to protect the remaining populations. In Russia, the catch of bream has declined tenfold over the past 85 years, while the roach population has also plummeted dramatically.
Health
In Western Kazakhstan, the areas where the sea has recently receded are barren, just vast, endless stretches of sandy fields. This has had a worsening effect on the seasonal sand storms.
For coastal communities, the retreat of the sea has become a pressing public health concern. Jana Zhanbay is situated 25 km west of Zhanbay along the railway to Russia.
Asel Sheruyenova, a resident, said: “Sandstorms are frequent in the summer. Sometimes they’re so intense that we can't even see our garden. I’ve developed a dust allergy; it’s a challenging season for me.”
In villages like Jana Zhanbay agriculture faces challenges as very few fruits and vegetables can grow. Ibragim Bozakhaev, an elderly resident, said: “The climate is very dry and becomes increasingly hot, that’s why people here are more involved with camel breeding.”
Ibragim Bozakhaev owns several cows and camels. Animals' health is also affected by the declining sea levels. He added: “The dust that is carried is salty due to the retreat of the sea, and it is extremely harmful to animals.”
Tragedy
For many observers, the fate of the Caspian is reminiscent of the Aral sea set at the border of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once the world's fourth-largest lake, it shrank drastically due to Soviet-era irrigation projects diverting its rivers. By the 2000s, it had lost 90 per cent of its water, becoming a desert.
The local government in Atyrau has been continuously dredging the mouth of the river to allow boats to reach the open sea and to help fish migrate upstream.
A young employee of Atyrau's municipality working on this project said: “Every year we dig, and the sea keeps moving away. It feels like we’re chasing it.” The civil servant is afraid that the Caspian might become a second Aral.
Efforts to revive the Aral Sea included constructing the Kok-Aral Dam, completed in 2005. This project partially restored water levels in the North Aral Sea, now covering less than five per cent of the original Aral Sea.
It also boosted fish populations and revitalised local economies. However, the South Aral Sea remains largely irreparable due to severe desertification and limited water inflow.
Bottleneck
The clock may be ticking as well to find a solution for the Caspian. In November 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the issue as "serious" during a speech and initiated the creation of a research institute dedicated to studying the Caspian Sea.
The government officially approved the project last January, but the institute has yet to be established.
Although all Caspian countries are allies of Russia, the geopolitical situation hinders resolving the crisis. Moscow prioritises its economic needs to sustain the war effort in Ukraine and leverages water disputes to pressure neighboring countries, such as Kazakhstan, into adopting a more supportive stance.
Laura Malikova, chairperson at the Kazakh Association of Practising Ecologists, said: “When it comes to water resources, it shouldn't be politicised. There shouldn’t be a condition that Kazakhstan supports Russia in the war in Ukraine, and then they can give us more water.”
All five Caspian countries are set to reconvene next year at the Tehran Convention COP7, where the issue of the sea's shrinking water levels is likely to take center stage.
