The U.S. expert community is actively discussing the possibility of a targeted strike on Iran, with specialists suggesting that the objective would not be to occupy the country, but to dismantle its political system.

The proposed plan involves striking a limited number of key targets: the residence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the highest military and political leadership, certain nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, as well as command and control centers, The Caspian Post reports citing foreign media.

Washington intends to apply a strategy of escalation dominance in this scenario, already tested after the elimination of the commander of the Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, in 2020. The essence of the concept is the ability of one side to respond to the opponent's actions with such force each time that further escalation becomes meaningless for the adversary.

The message that the U.S. wants to send to Tehran is crystal clear: America is capable of striking the heart of the Iranian state apparatus, enduring a limited response, and maintaining control over the level of escalation. The scenario is designed so that the cycle of tension would end in the shortest possible time, with Washington showing a desire to maintain leverage rather than escalate into a full-scale war. This approach, as noted by Foreign Policy, leaves room for negotiations, but on terms dictated by the U.S., with the cost of non-compliance for Iran increasing exponentially.

Relations between the two countries have worsened against the backdrop of the suppression of the December protests in Iran, which officially claimed around 3,000 lives. In response, the U.S. increased its military presence in the Middle East. A dialogue attempt was made on February 6 in Oman, where the first negotiations since the 12-day war of June 2025 took place between the heads of delegations: U.S. Special Envoy Steve Whitcoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. U.S. President Donald Trump once again urged Tehran to conclude an equal agreement on abandoning nuclear weapons, warning of an inevitable harsh military response if they refuse.