Ayatollah Ali Khamenei served as the Supreme Leader of Iran for nearly 36 years and six months before being killed in a joint strike by the United States and Israel over the past weekend. Days later, the slain leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has reportedly been chosen as the new Supreme Leader. What stands out in this decision is that while Iran's Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba, the actual choice was made by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Mojtaba's election as the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic was first reported by Iran International. The decision has not yet been made public and is expected to be announced after Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral.
Mojtaba Khamenei taking charge of the top chair is nowhere near a normal succession. It is a 'wartime succession'. Amid an attack from the US and Israel and a leadership vacuum, Iran swiftly moved to pick a leader for the top post to regain speed and control.
Why did IRGC Choose Mojtaba?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly had two main factors influencing their decision -- control and legitimacy.
Keeping the chain of command secure, preventing any tussle at the top, keeping security forces intact and preventing chaos over power were key to control. And to achieve this, the IRGC needed internal stability, Iran International reported.
As for legitimacy, the factor is regime-centred, not a matter of concern in a national sense. The IRGC aimed to keep legitimacy intact within the Iranian regime's core -- hardliner politicians, security agencies, and the loyal networks that still consider the Islamic Republic "their" state.
And when it comes to legitimacy, Mojtaba has one special detail that others do not -- a direct relationship, continuity with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This means that he is acceptable to the regime's core base without having to carry the feeling of the system being broken.
These two reasons are why the IRGC chose Mojtaba Khamenei.
Additionally, Mojtaba has had long-lived ties with the IRGC, dating back decades, and deep relationships across its command networks, the report stated. He served as an important channel between his father, the Supreme Leader, and the IRGC's leadership, placing him in a rare position.
Mojtaba is close to the security core of the Guard Corps and, at the same time, associated with civilian and clerical leadership.
Not only is he perceived as the closest confidant of Ayatollah Khamenei, but Mojtaba has also effectively run the Supreme Leader's Office, the Beit Rahbari, for the better part of the past two decades.
The Beit is the core of the state, with real authority residing within it, controlling key security, political and financial departments. This is the reason why an outsider taking control is not an ideal choice for the Islamic Republic.
Keep Fighting or Step Back: Two Paths for Iran
With the current turmoil in the Middle East, Iran can either stay defiant and keep fighting, or it can step back and accept the concessions to stop the war. And Mojtaba can handle either path.
If Iran decides to keep fighting, it would mean stricter internal controls, deployment of forces, and a much higher reliance on asymmetric pressure. As for the other option, Iran would have to give up key pillars of its regional and military posture in order to get the attacks to stop.
The political function of this wartime succession is reportedly to ensure that the leader owns whatever deal is chosen, prevents the hardcore from flipping on their leadership, keeps the IRGC united and keeps the security state functioning even under consistent attack.
Once Mojtaba Khamenei takes charge, all the focus -- domestically and globally -- would shift to his decision between intensification and de-escalation.
Revenge or Peace?
The ultimate decision in this ongoing conflict lies with the next Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. But the choice is much harder. He not only has the thought of the Islamic Republic and its people in his mind, but also the fact that US President Donald Trump has the blood of Qasem Soleimani and now Ayatollah Khamenei on his hands. This makes it harder for Mojtaba to choose between compromise and sustained fighting.
However, Mojtaba appeared to carry an advantage even in this. According to Iran International, he could present the decision of continuing the fight as a matter of duty and retaliation. And in case of a move to pause the fight, he can present it as a decision made by the heir and the family, not as an externally forced choice
Either way, Mojtaba Khamenei would begin his reign in the ruins of his father's world. The economic distress, falling institutions, US-Israeli attacks, and public hostility all come together to make Iran's survival a guarantee-less phenomenon.
Who is Mojtaba Khamenei?
Born in 1969 in the Iranian city of Mashhad, Mojtaba Khamenei is the eldest son of the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He grew up at a time when his father was involved in leading opposition to the Shah.
While he has run the Beit for the past two decades, the 56-year-old Mojtaba has never formally held office or an official position in the Iranian regime.
He is believed to wield significant 'behind-the-scenes' kind of influence.
Mojtaba fought in the Iranian armed forces during the war with Iraq. And in the recent US-Israeli strikes, he was among the few Khamenei family members who survived.
Mojtaba was sanctioned by the US Treasury Department in 2019, which said that he acted on behalf of the former supreme leader in "an official capacity, despite never being elected or appointed to a government position" other than working in his father’s office.
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