China is investing in a Caspian Sea import-export shipping route to Europe that avoids Russia and sidesteps conflicts in the Middle East, according to analysts.

State-owned Chinese firms have already invested hundreds of millions of US dollars to build the 4,750km (2,950 mile) Middle Corridor, which runs through Kazakhstan across the inland Caspian Sea by ship to Azerbaijan, onwards to Georgia and into Türkiye, The Caspian Post reports via South China Morning Post.

China gave grant support of about US$70 million and equipment worth around US$2 million for the Caspian Sea Port of Baku, and Chinese firms took part in a US$300 million new seaport in Aktau, Kazakhstan, on the other side of the sea, according to the Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia intergovernmental programme in Georgia.

The corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, includes roads and railways as well as the two seaports. It would allow a shipment from China to reach Europe in 15 to 18 days, compared with 45 to 60 by ocean routes, a Turkish diplomatic source said.

China is the European Union’s top source of imported goods.

The corridor was still “low capacity” with a higher cost per unit of freight than maritime routes, said Alexander Cooley, a political-science professor at Barnard College in New York. The Caspian crossing, ports and railway gauge transfers still needed work, he said.

The Middle Corridor lacked the “scale and efficiency” of alternate China-Europe shipping routes through Russia, said Alessandro Arduino, a China expert and affiliate lecturer at King’s College London.

However, China possessed the capital and transport expertise to upgrade it, Cooley said.

Contractors already see potential. British internet service provider RETN, for example, began developing its Eurasian corridor in 2013 and completed a terrestrial route across Central Asia between Europe and the China border six years later in anticipation of future growth, company CEO Tony O’Sullivan said.

The firm saw strong “long-term growth potential in developing markets across Central Asia and Southeast Asia”, he said.

A roughly 10,000km northern land transport route linking China to Europe via Russia exposes shippers to Western sanctions that have hit Russia because of its war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East and sea piracy near Africa have heightened the risks of marine routes, while a China-Europe transport corridor through Pakistan and the Middle East is relatively undeveloped.

“The war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia … and disruptions to traditional trade routes have elevated the strategic importance of alternative connections between China and Europe,” Arduino said. “For Beijing, the Middle Corridor offers diversification, resilience and reduced exposure to geopolitical chokepoints.”

China would also welcome the new route as a way to import minerals from Central Asia, said Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scientist at the US-based non-profit Centre for Naval Analyses.

Central Asian countries would embrace China’s role in creating transport links as long as they neither owed Beijing a debt nor ceded control over domestic assets, scholars said.

“Chinese involvement could unlock new opportunities for freight operators, logistics providers, port developers and e-commerce platforms,” Cooley said. “Central Asian economies also stand to gain from increased investment in energy [and] critical minerals, moving beyond their traditional role as exporters of raw materials.”

Kazakhstan would find the corridor “crucial to the security” of its oil exports to Europe, as 80 per cent of that oil now passed through Russia and was “subject to its interruption”, Wishnick said.

Türkiye’s keen interest in the Middle Corridor is expected to accelerate buildout.

China and Türkiye signed a memorandum of understanding in 2015 to harmonise Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, an effort to expand trade-related infrastructure abroad, with the Turkish Middle Corridor Initiative. Türkiye aims to leverage its geographic location to become an Asia-Europe connector.

Chinese support could bring financing and “world-class” logistics expertise to accelerate the corridor’s development, Arduino said.

A key segment of the Middle Corridor, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, began running at full capacity on June 2, strengthening “uninterrupted connectivity” through Türkiye, the diplomatic source said.

“The Middle Corridor can provide Chinese companies operating in Türkiye with faster and more diversified access to European and other regional markets,” the source said.

By Ralph Jennings