Amidst scorching temperatures and raging wildfires on the European continent, tropical storms and flash floods in the US, and severe drought in sub-Saharan Africa, high-level negotiators and state representatives gathered for a high-level retreat summit in Shamakhi, Azerbaijan on July 22-23, in preparation for the climate Conference of Parties (COP 31) in November.

Similar retreats proved successful in 2024 and 2025 in preparing the diplomatically terse soil for negotiating an international agreement on CC vs qmq climate mitigation and adaptation in accordance with the Kyoto and Paris Agreements. However, the recent retreat stands out as it is presented by two host countries rather than one for the first time in the Conference’s history. Thus, observers will be watching the dynamics and outcomes of the retreat closely as the first indicator of how this new leadership model will operate, The Caspian Post reports via Modern Diplomacy.

A New Model for Climate Leadership

The COP presidency rotates annually between the different member groups. The dual model came about as a compromise between the rivaling candidacies of Türkiye and Australia within the COP Western European and Others groups. While Australia had majority support within its group, Türkiye refused to renounce its candidacy. As a result, a compromise emerged in which Türkiye was granted the formal presidency and hosting of the summit in November, while Australia holds the newly instituted role of President of negotiations, granting it ‘exclusive authority in relation to the negotiations.’ Critics have pointed to the ambiguity and novelty of this arrangement, arguing that this might disrupt the summit and undermine efforts to broker consensus on climate efforts between the attending parties.

Australia and the Pacific Pivot

Added to this is the notable differences in the coupled countries. While Australia has long been seen at the forefront of climate action, having formed close bilateral agreements with neighboring Small Island Developing States in the Pacific Ocean like Tuvalu and Fiji, such as the Falepili Union facilitating migration for Tuvaluan citizens to Australia amidst rising sea levels. Thus, Australia has portrayed its candidacy as a wider platform for developing countries that are geographically among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, being existentially threatened by rising sea levels, while lacking economic capacity to adapt to this threat. In addition, Australia is a leading exporter of renewable energies and has seen a quick domestic transition away from fossil fuels in recent years.

The Ambivalent Ambitions of Türkiye

By contrast, Türkiye remains reliant on fossil fuels for almost 60% of its energy, and is Europe’s largest coal consumer. In addition, Ankara has maintained close ties with Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia-fossil-reliant countries with a history of thwarting multilateral climate ambitions. Thus, while Ankara has scaled up its climate ambitions in recent years, many parties remain skeptical of its presidency, with critics arguing that it is but a pawn in President Erdoğan’s political strategy of presenting Türkiye as an emerging power with strong diplomatic credentials and soft power.

A Strategic Leadership

Thus, some analysts predict that Türkiye, with its emphasis on promoting a concrete implementation of a climate finance plan where developed countries would finance climate adaption in developing by countries, coupled with its portrayal of itself as a bridge between developing and developed countries, may seek to use its influence as COP President to promote Turkish financial interests and investment opportunities in developing countries. This tendency might already have become manifest in Azerbaijan, with Türkiye discussing cooperation on the development of the Margla National Park the Islamabad Wildlife Management Board on the same lines as the Nairobi National Park with the delegations of Kenya and Pakistan respectively. This contravenes Australia’s explicit centering of the critical situation of small island developing states, indicating the tensions within the leadership that might be to come at COP31.

The Geopolitics of Climate Change

However, Australia is not an uncomplicated presiding country either. While it has in recent years expanded its renewable energy sector, it remains dependent on fossil fuels for over half of its energy and counts among the world’s biggest exporters of coal and natural gas. Furthermore, its interest and attentiveness toward developing pacific states is not exclusively motivated by concerns about climate change. Earlier this month, Australia announced new security treaties with Fiji and Tuvalu, with rumors of Australia aspiring to form a wider pacific peace alliance-the Ocean of Peace Alliance-in order to protect its position in the region and limit Chinese expansion of influence that has grown in recent years.

A Model for Success?

Thus, it remains to see whether the new COP leadership model will be better positioned to bring diverse interests and divided parties into unity for urgent climate action, or whether tensions will infest the conference at the leadership level and again thwart serious climate efforts, and whether the dual model will indeed give disinterested, genuine inclusion to the voices of all smaller states.

By Marta Rehnman