In January, Russia’s oil production, excluding condensate, fell by 46,000 barrels per day, bringing output down to 9.28 million barrels daily.

This marks the third consecutive month of decline, according to Bloomberg sources familiar with the statistics.

The current production level is already nearly 300,000 barrels per day below Russia’s permitted OPEC+ quota, highlighting ongoing challenges in the country’s oil sector. With official production data no longer published by Russian authorities, analysts and media outlets rely on expert estimates and secondary sources to gauge the situation.

Rising Stockpiles Signal Market Strains

Alongside declining production, the volume of Russian crude stored on tankers at sea is growing, signaling difficulties in selling oil internationally. By early February, an estimated 143 million barrels-equivalent to roughly two weeks of production-had accumulated on ships.

Industry observers point to pressure from the United States as a key factor behind the storage build-up. Sanctions and diplomatic measures are complicating Russia’s search for buyers, forcing exporters to offer increasingly steep discounts.

Potential Impact of Changing Trade Relations with India

Looking ahead, further declines in shipments to India could amplify the pressure on Russian oil exports. A recent trade agreement between the United States and India reportedly includes tariff reductions that may discourage Indian refineries from purchasing Russian crude.

While Indian authorities have not officially confirmed any changes, sources suggest that the country’s largest refineries have already paused orders for March and April. Should these trends continue, Russia could face mounting economic and logistical challenges in managing its oil production and exports.

Outlook: Navigating a Complex Global Market

Russia’s oil sector is navigating a complex mix of declining production, rising storage inventories, and shifting trade dynamics. With international pressures mounting and key markets reconsidering purchases, analysts expect the country’s energy industry to face continued uncertainty in the near term.

Market observers are closely watching how Russian producers will adapt to both internal production constraints and external geopolitical factors, including evolving relationships with major importers like India.