India may significantly increase its purchases of Russian oil, potentially reaching around 1.5 million barrels per day (mbd) or even higher if global supply disruptions persist, according to industry analysts.

Maxim Malkov, partner at Kept and head of the firm’s oil and gas services practice, said that Russian oil deliveries to India could climb to their highest levels in 2024-2025 amid instability in the Middle East, The Caspian Post reports, citing TASS.

Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Moscow had already observed stronger demand from India for Russian crude intended for refining.

Analysts say several factors could drive this trend. India remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in global energy prices due to its heavy reliance on imported oil. At the same time, potential supply disruptions from the Middle East could tighten global availability, increasing the appeal of Russian crude for Indian refiners. India also has relatively limited domestic oil reserves, making stable imports essential for meeting demand.

According to Malkov, shipments could reach about 1.5 mbd or even exceed that level if Russian oil companies are able to quickly expand drilling and production to meet higher demand.

Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, suggested that prolonged tensions in the Middle East-especially disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz-could further reshape global oil flows. In such a scenario, the United States might tolerate increased Russian oil exports to India and other markets in order to prevent a sharp spike in global oil prices.

Kaufman noted that supplies of Russian oil to India previously ranged between 1.5 and 2 mbd for an extended period but later fell to around 1 mbd due to sanctions on Russian companies and political pressure from Washington. If market conditions change, exports could once again rise to 1.5-2 mbd, with some oil currently stored on tankers at sea potentially entering the market.

Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that Russia remained India’s largest oil supplier in December 2025, delivering roughly 1.3 mbd.

Global oil markets have become more volatile amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Concerns intensified after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz could be targeted. The strategic waterway handles a significant share of the world’s oil shipments, making any disruption a major concern for global energy markets.

The situation escalated after a large-scale military operation against Iran began on February 28, when the United States and Israel carried out strikes on several Iranian cities, including Tehran. Iran later announced retaliatory operations targeting locations in Israel as well as U.S. military bases across the region.

Amid these developments, analysts say global oil trade routes and supplier relationships could continue to shift as countries seek stable energy supplies in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.