Fitch Predicts Slower Growth for Kazakh, Uzbek Financial Sectors

Fitch Ratings forecasts a slowdown in the growth of financial and leasing company portfolios in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in late 2025 and 2026.

Rising interest rates, higher inflation, and tighter regulations are expected to curb both lending capacity and credit demand, The Caspian Post reports via Uzbek media.

The agency highlights that non-bank financial institutions will face pressure from stricter oversight, rising operational costs, and slower market growth. Yet, companies with strong business models, solid profitability, and conservative leverage are expected to remain creditworthy.

Key regulatory challenges include interest rate caps, stricter prudential requirements, and tighter supervision of the microfinance sector. Fitch predicts ongoing market consolidation as firms seek cost efficiency, expanded operations, and more fee-based income, with many likely pursuing banking licenses to strengthen their position in consumer lending.

Funding access is limited amid rising rates and reduced government support, though wide interest spreads and short-term assets help maintain profitability. Companies with large client bases and diversified funding typically earn “B” ratings, while shareholder-backed firms are rated “BB” or “BBB.”

In 2025, Fitch confirmed ratings for seven firms, gave initial ratings to Mogo Kazakhstan, Robocash.kz, and Uzum Holding Ltd., upgraded TechnoLeasing and Astana Motors Finance to B with a Stable outlook, and revised Arnur Credit to Positive. Robocash.kz was placed on Rating Watch Negative after a temporary suspension of its microfinance license.