Kazakhstan Cuts 2025 Oil Production Target to Meet OPEC+ Commitments

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy has revised its 2025 oil production target downward by one million tons, now set at 96.2 million tons, in line with the country’s commitments under the OPEC+ agreements.

In 2024, Kazakhstan had already reduced oil production by 2.5 million tons compared to its original plan, The Caspian Post reports, citing The Times of Central Asia.

The revised target for 2025 now stands at 96.2 million tons, down from the 97.2 million tons announced in December 2024. Despite the reduction, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov has instructed the Energy Ministry to implement stronger measures to increase natural gas and oil production to meet planned output levels. Frequent revisions to production forecasts in 2024 highlighted the ongoing challenges in achieving production stability.

The lowered forecast is attributed to several factors, including extended maintenance shutdowns at major oilfields. The Tengiz oilfield experienced shutdowns in May and August, totaling 50 days, while the Kashagan oilfield underwent maintenance for 21 days. Additionally, an unscheduled shutdown occurred at the Karachaganak field.

Production was further impacted by limitations on gas intake at the Orenburg gas processing plant, which affected operations at Karachaganak. Planned maintenance at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)-the primary route for Kazakh oil exports-also constrained transportation capacity. Compliance with OPEC+ agreements added to the reductions in production.

In mid-2024, Kazakhstan, alongside Russia and Iraq, submitted compensation schedules to OPEC to fulfill their obligations to cut oil production after exceeding quotas under the OPEC+ agreement. Under this plan, Kazakhstan began reducing production by 18,000 barrels per day in July and further cut output by 265,000 barrels per day in October 2024. These reductions will continue until September 2025.

Oil export revenues in 2024 amounted to approximately 2 trillion KZT ($3.8 billion), while total budget revenues from the oil sector exceeded 2.3 trillion KZT ($4.4 billion).