Kazakhstan is exploring the possibility of increasing its oil exports through pipelines following Russia's implementation of a temporary ban on foreign oil tankers loading at its key Black Sea ports without explicit authorization from its Federal Security Service (FSB).
The new policy, enacted on July 21 under the country’s "Martial Law" statute, transferred authority over foreign vessel entry from the Russian Ministry of Transport to the FSB, a move that analysts say could significantly disrupt global oil supplies and cripple exports from neighbouring Kazakhstan, The Caspian Post reports citing foreign media.
It could also remove up to 2% of the global oil supply from the market.
Russia’s temporary restriction is a direct response to a new round of sanctions from the European Union, which also began on July 21. These sanctions ban the import of Russian seaborne crude oil, aiming to cut off 90% of the EU's current oil imports from Russia.
However, the EU's measures include transitional periods to allow its member states to "secure alternative supplies” and minimise global market disruption.
While the restriction is "temporary," it has already prompted Kazakhstan to accelerate its search for alternative export routes.
Kazakhstan's Energy Minister, Yerlan Akkenzhenov, announced plans to increase oil transportation via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to 1.7 million tons this year, a significant jump from the 1.4 million tons transported in 2024.
In the first half of 2025 alone, the country has already shipped 800,000 tons through the BTC.
Kazakhstan's pursuit of alternative routes is not new. In August 2022, a Russian court halted oil pumping through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium for 30 days, citing "environmental damage." However, the ruling was later reversed.
This incident, along with others, prompted Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to call for the diversification of the country’s oil export routes.
In response, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan began collaborating on oil transit. In March 2023, the first batch of Kazakh Tengiz oil was transported via the BTC pipeline. Just last year, an agreement was signed to gradually increase oil transit to 2.2 million tons per year, and the first test shipment of oil from the Kashagan field was transported across the Caspian Sea.
Last week, during a visit to Turkey, Tokayev met with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to discuss increasing Kazakh oil exports via the BTC pipeline to help the country reduce its reliance on Russia for oil exports.
While the route presents logistical challenges, including the need for port modernisation and increased tanker capacity, Kazakhstan is also exploring the use of the dormant Baku-Supsa pipeline as another potential alternative.
The Baku-Supsa pipeline, with a capacity of 6 million tons per year, would allow Kazakhstan to bypass Russia's export dominance and ensure the quality of its oil remains high.
