China Emerges as Tajikistan’s Leading Trade Partner

China has officially emerged as Tajikistan’s leading trade partner for the first time.

Bilateral trade turnover between Tajikistan and China soared to $964 million in the first five months of 2025, marking a nearly 30 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024, The Caspian Post reports via Tajik media.

Tajikistan exported over $177 million worth of goods to China, while imports of Chinese products reached approximately $787 million.

This growth propelled China’s share of Tajikistan’s total foreign trade turnover to 24.8 per cent, surpassing Russia’s 23.2 per cent for the first time in over 25 years. Russia had historically been Tajikistan’s largest trading partner.

Trade between Tajikistan and Russia totaled around $900 million during the same period, with Tajik exports to Russia amounting to about $42 million and imports from Russia standing at $858 million-a 9.3 per cent increase from the previous year.

Following Tajikistan’s independence in the 1990s, Uzbekistan was the country’s leading trade partner, with bilateral trade reaching $250 million in 1995-double the combined trade volume with all other CIS nations. However, strained relations in the late 1990s caused trade to plummet to $13 million by 2014.

Relations improved after Shavkat Mirziyoyev became Uzbekistan’s president, and trade between the two neighbors rebounded, reaching $238 million in the first five months of 2025.

China surpassed Russia as Tajikistan’s largest investor in 2017, ending decades of Russian predominance. By early 2025, Chinese investments in Tajikistan totaled $5.1 billion, compared to approximately $2 billion from Russia.

China also remains Tajikistan’s main creditor, with outstanding debt to China estimated at around $1 billion at the start of the year-about one-third of Tajikistan’s external debt.