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For the first time in more than twenty years, China has surpassed Russia to become Tajikistan's largest trading partner, according to recent data from the Tajikistan Statistics Agency, The Caspian Post reports citing foreign media.
A New Leader in Foreign Trade
Between January and May 2025, trade between Tajikistan and China reached $964 million, an increase of nearly 30% compared to the same period in 2024. China’s share in Tajikistan’s total foreign trade stood at 24.8%, edging ahead of Russia’s 23.2%.
This surge was driven largely by Chinese exports to Tajikistan, which totaled $787 million. Tajik exports to China reached $177 million, leaving a significant trade imbalance in China’s favor, though the overall volume of bilateral engagement continues to rise rapidly.
Russia had held the position of Tajikistan’s leading trade partner for more than 20 years. However, during the first five months of 2025, total trade between the two countries reached approximately $900 million. Of that, only $42 million represented Tajik exports to Russia, while Russian imports totaled $858 million. Despite a 9.3% increase year-on-year, the growth was insufficient to maintain its top position.
Uzbekistan Reemerges as a Key Player
Historically, Uzbekistan was Tajikistan’s main trade partner during the 1990s. In 1995, trade between the two countries reached $250 million, double the combined trade volume with other post-Soviet states at the time. However, political tensions toward the end of the decade led to a sharp decline, with trade falling to just $13 million by 2014.
Following the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as President of Uzbekistan in 2016, bilateral relations have markedly improved. Trade between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is once again on the rise, reaching $238 million in the first five months of 2025.
China: Tajikistan’s Leading Investor and Creditor
China’s growing economic influence in Tajikistan extends beyond trade. It is now the country’s largest foreign investor, having overtaken Russia in 2017. According to the State Committee for Investment and State Property Management, accumulated Chinese investment in Tajikistan totaled $5.1 billion as of Q2 2025. In comparison, Russian investments stand at approximately $2 billion, less than half.
China is also Tajikistan’s largest external creditor. As of early 2025, Dushanbe’s debt to Beijing stood at around $1 billion, representing nearly one-third of the country’s total external debt.
This strategic pivot in Tajikistan’s economic orientation reflects a broader regional trend. Across Central Asia, Beijing continues to expand its footprint through a combination of trade, infrastructure investment, financial lending, and diplomatic engagement.
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