While the European Union and China are actively working to strengthen their foothold in the strategically vital Central Asian region, the United States seems to be taking a more ambivalent or cautious approach.
Unlike in Ukraine, where the Trump administration openly eyes the country’s natural resources, in energy-rich Central Asian states, Washington does not seem to be involved - or at least not directly - in the pursuit for oil, gas, and critical minerals, The Caspian Post reports citing Eurasia Review.
That, however, does not necessarily mean that the US is not interested in the developments in the region that has traditionally been in Russia’s geopolitical orbit. The fact that CNN was the major media partner of this year’s Astana International Forum (AIF), held in the Kazakh capital city on May 29-30, shows that at least some political circles in Washington recognize the importance not only of Kazakhstan as the largest regional player, but of Central Asia as a whole.
The very structure of the event - which brought together political, business and thought leaders who gathered under an expanded agenda that includes climate change, energy security, and sustainability - reflects a stronger focus on multilateralism and on strengthening the role of small countries and so-called middle powers in the international arena. This also explains why no top American officials were among the keynote speakers at this year’s summit.
Their absence, however, does not indicate that Kazakhstan is seeking to distance itself from its relationship with Washington. According to the country’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Roman Vassilenko, Kazakh-American relations are based on a very solid foundation, particularly in the areas of energy and the economy. Still, even though around 800 American companies operate in Kazakhstan, the Central Asian nation’s officials expects Washington to play a stronger role in the region.
“We certainly hope that, at some point, under the Trump presidency, the United States will return to Central Asia,” Vassilenko told a group of foreign journalists on May 28.
His statement perfectly aligns with the nation’s decades-old “multi-vector” foreign policy, initially established by the Kazakh first president Nursultan Nazarbayev. For Kazakhstan, strengthening ties with neighboring Central Asian states, Russia, China, and the West is a foreign policy top priority. Geography plays an important role here.
Bordering two giant neighbors - Russia and China - the Central Asian state of around 20 million people has little choice but to maintain a careful balance between them, while also seeking closer ties with the West as a strategic counterweight. It is, therefore, no surprise that one of the major guests at the AIF was the Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, who, during her speech, quoted Halford Mackinder -often regarded as one of the founding fathers of geopolitics and geostrategy. More than a century ago, the British politician argued that Central Asia represents one of the “pivots” around which the fate of the world revolves. He is also known for his Heartland Theory, which posits that control of the Heartland - with Central Asia as a key component - grants dominance over the entire Eurasian continent.
In modern times, the region has become even more important than in the past, not only because of its strategic location, but also due to its vast natural resources. Energy is arguably the primary driver behind the policies of foreign powers in Central Asia. The EU views the regional states as providers of raw materials, which is why it has recently signed agreements in this field with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It is also seeking to reach similar arrangements with Kyrgyzstan, and hoping to find a way to begin importing gas from Turkmenistan, which holds the fourth-largest proven natural gas reserves in the world.
What Kazakhstan - Central Asia’s largest country and a major producer of oil and natural gas - aims to ensure is a more favorable arrangement with foreign energy corporations operating within its borders. Currently, a group of international oil companies reportedly takes an overwhelming 98 percent of Kazakhstan’s oil revenue, which is why the authorities in Astana are seeking to shift the balance in their favor.
At the same time, while the EU views Kazakhstan (as well as neighboring Uzbekistan) as producers of green electricity that will be exported to the West via underground cables, Astana aims to develop its nuclear sector. That is why it aims to secure beryllium-an element valuable in nuclear reactor design-from Rwanda. That explains why the African nation’s president, Paul Kagame, was also among the major speakers at the Astana International Forum.
But where is the United States in this game?
Washington’s lack of visible presence in the region can be interpreted as a green light for the EU (including member states) to increase its involvement in Central Asia - where Russia is losing ground and China is seeking to dominate economically. Brussels’ decision to provide emergency funds to keep Radio Free Europe (commonly known in Central Asia as Radio Azattyq) afloat, after the Trump administration halted grants to the media outlet, suggests that the US may be reducing its “soft power” approach in the region, thereby creating room for increased European influence.
Still, given Trump’s unpredictability in foreign policy, it is not improbable that he will eventually push Central Asian states to pursue Ukraine-style energy deals with Washington. In the meantime, the US will likely maintain a cautious, low-profile approach in Central Asia, balancing its interests amid growing European and Chinese influence while keeping options open for a more active role in the future.
