In 2025, Central Asia will need to strike a balance between promoting economic diversification, sustainable partnerships and autonomy and ensuring the region benefits from foreign investments and cooperation.
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Central Asia rose to global prominence in 2024, drawing notable interest from major European and Asian powers and intensifying Russian and Chinese competition for regional influence. The Central Asian states are no pawns in the power struggle between superpowers, increasingly asserting their autonomy and national interests. In 2025, Central Asia will need to strike a balance between promoting economic diversification, sustainable partnerships and autonomy and ensuring the region benefits from foreign investments and cooperation, The Caspian Post reports citing East Asia Forum.
In 2024, Central Asia emerged as a key player on the global stage. Central Asia has become a battleground for intensifying competition, particularly between Russia and China. As 2025 approaches, the Central Asian republics are increasingly focusing on economic diversification, sustainable partnerships and policies that uphold national autonomy while benefiting from foreign investment and cooperation.
Central Asia has evolved from being a mere arena for the power plays of other nations to a region that asserts its autonomy. As the region emerges as a middle power, Central Asian republics have made substantial contributions to global affairs, particularly in the realms of energy, transportation and conflict mediation. The region has established robust partnerships, gaining influence in the critical minerals sector. The developments of 2024 will continue with increasing intensity and shape bilateral and multilateral relations in 2025.
This year witnessed Russia and China intensify their engagement towards Central Asia. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in 2024. As expected, these high-level meetings emphasised the importance of maintaining strong ties and seeking solutions to international sanctions on Russia. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visits to Kazakhstan and Tajikistan signalled that China’s influence in the region remains robust. Xi Jinping called on Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member states to protect the ‘Shanghai Spirit’ against all threats.
During the year, numerous countries sought to strengthen their ties with the Central Asian republics, particularly in the areas of critical minerals and the Middle Corridor. The European Union is seeking to prevent Central Asia from falling under China’s financial influence. In addition to the EU Global Gateway project, periodic meetings are being held to establish an integrated connectivity system linking Central Asia to the West. The United States is also intensively focusing on Central Asia’s critical minerals to reduce the region’s dependence on China.
The United Kingdom and Germany have developed a new Central Asia policy, particularly in light of the Russia–Ukraine war and growing concerns about China’s influence in the region. Then UK foreign secretary David Cameron’s extensive April 2024 visit heralded the start of a ‘new era’. During his visit, agreements were made to enhance cooperation in energy, economy and education, alongside plans for a ‘5+1 platform’.
The UK government also released Countries at Crossroads: UK Engagement in Central Asia, which stated that relations would be shaped strategically to counter competition from Russia and China. For the UK, Central Asia must be safeguarded against the threats posed by Russia and China. Regional states are opposed to this paternalistic approach.
In September 2024, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the region for the second Germany– Central Asia Summit. Similar to the United Kingdom, the German government characterised the visit as ‘breathing new life into relations’.
Scholz emphasised that the Russia–Ukraine war has created a new geopolitical reality and highlighted the increasing importance of Central Asia. Two key outcomes emerged from this visit — the support of the Central Asian states for the Global Gateway project through Germany and the potential for Germany to deport Afghan criminals to Afghanistan via Uzbekistan. Despite these positive developments, Germany’s stance toward the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and its critical view of the Central Asian republics’ relations with the Taliban continue to pose challenges.
The June 2024 visit of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol carried a different significance compared to the visits of European leaders. Embracing a traditional and robust policy framework for Central Asia, South Korea has deepened its relations in the region through the ‘K-Silk Road Initiative’ announced by President Yoon. South Korea has avoided rhetoric that could escalate tensions and has instead adopted a win-win approach, focusing on partnership-based resource diplomacy, a move welcomed by Central Asia.
Turkiye, another country that places great importance on the region, has taken a historic step by adopting the Common Turkic Alphabet. Engaging in substantial efforts within the Organization of Turkic States, the country continues to pursue closer cooperation with the Central Asian republics, sharing deep historical and cultural ties. By moving away from the Cyrillic alphabet to a common Latin script for Turkic languages, they aim to enhance communication between Turkic states. Additionally, Turkiye has mandated the use of the term ‘Turkistan’ instead of ‘Central Asia’ in school curricula.
Central Asia will play an increasingly important role in the international arena, influenced by China’s expanding economic presence, Russia’s geopolitical initiatives and key projects like the Middle Corridor which are essential for regional connectivity and the critical minerals sector. But the European Union’s influence may be affected by its pattern of periodic engagement and disengagement in the region. This inconsistent approach could limit its ability to build sustained partnerships and maintain influence, especially compared to consistently involved players like China and Turkiye.
Central Asian republics are expected to attach importance to multilateral relations and organisational formations under the ‘C5+’ format. Within this concept, relations with all countries of the world will be developed and new organisational initiatives will emerge.
The region is no longer the backyard of any single superpower. In this era, where the goal is mutually beneficial partnerships among equals, Western countries are expected to contribute to projects as reliable partners rather than taking on a ‘protective’ role. Criticising Central Asian states or pressuring them to change policies on sensitive issues like Afghanistan without considering regional realities is unlikely to be received positively. Efforts to diminish Russian and Chinese influence are also unlikely to yield the desired results as they are viewed by the Central Asian republics as short-term political manoeuvres lacking a foundation of trust.
