EBRD Raises Türkiye's 2025 Growth Forecast to 3.1%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its forecast for Türkiye's economic growth, projecting a 3.1 percent increase in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 2.8 percent in May 2025.

The bank expects the Turkish economy to further grow by 3.5 percent in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast, The Caspian Post reports citing Turkish media.

The forecasts were published on Sept. 25 in the bank’s Regional Economic Prospects report.

Türkiye’s GDP growth accelerated from 2.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 to 4.8 percent in the second quarter.

On the upside, easing tensions in Syria and the Caucasus and closer cooperation with the EU could allow Türkiye to capitalize on its established strengths in construction, logistics and defense, according to the EBRD report.

Volatile risk sentiment and tighter global financing conditions remain key risks for Türkiye, it added.

The EBRD invested a record 2.6 billion euros in Türkiye in 2024, driven by the private sector’s appetite for green investments and the bank’s continuing support for regions affected by the February 2023 earthquakes.