Fitch Ratings said Monday that its base-case scenario assumes a durable agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be reached in the first quarter of 2027, as sovereign credit ratings across the Middle East and North Africa remain resilient to the US-Iran war.

Higher oil prices, recovering oil exports and substantial financial buffers have supported sovereign credit profiles, the rating agency said in a commentary accompanying its latest regional peer credit analysis, The Caspian Post reports, citing Anadolu Agency.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iraq have borne the brunt of the conflict, facing sporadic attacks by Iran and regional proxies, alongside disruptions to the main route for their hydrocarbon exports.

Elsewhere in the region, factors including strong external support for Egypt and Jordan, rapid tourism growth in Egypt and healthy foreign direct investment in Morocco have helped offset the impact of higher oil prices.

Modest fiscal reforms have also helped stabilize debt-to-GDP ratios, although authorities remain mindful of pressures on social stability, Fitch said.

The region’s average sovereign rating has remained unchanged over the past 12 months. An upgrade for Oman and a downgrade for Bahrain both took place before the war.

However, three sovereigns currently have negative outlooks, while none has a positive outlook, marking the weakest balance since late 2021.

Negative outlooks for Qatar and Ras al Khaimah reflect war-related risks. Both were recently removed from negative rating watches imposed at the height of hostilities.

Qatar’s outlook reflects its inability to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) because of disruptions in the strait. Ras al Khaimah faces risks to a potentially transformative tourism project that supported an earlier upgrade.

Israel also retains a negative outlook, reflecting expectations of a continued increase in public debt and war-related risks to economic growth and public finances.