Iran’s nationwide uprising has entered a critical phase, and Brussels-based Iranian analyst Mohsen Behzad Karimi argues that only two stark outcomes are realistically possible - and no middle ground remains. In a recent assessment in UATV English, Karimi said that the decades-long unrest and mounting internal pressures have pushed the Islamic Republic toward an inflection point, where it could either face transformative negotiations or see its regime collapse amid sustained protest and external support.
“There are only two scenarios,” Karimi said, responding to a question about possible outcomes of the protests.
“The first is increased pressure leading to temporary negotiations and short-term economic relief, accompanied by major socio-political changes that, in reality, mean the regime is no longer the same. Even this scenario would not last long and would usher in a period of rapid transformation in Iran’s political sphere,” he believes, and adds that this scenario will not last long and will herald a period of rapid transformation in Iran’s political sphere.
“The second and more likely scenario is that the uprising continues, repression escalates, and external support eventually contributes to the collapse of the regime, followed by the return of the Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and a democratic period of transition,” the analyst stated.
photo: The Arab Weekly
“There is no third scenario. The Islamic Republic, as we have known it, is already finished,” the expert concluded.
The analyst also believes that protesters will welcome external support in their fight against the regime: “Iran is not a sectarian society like Iraq or Afghanistan. Despite ethnic diversity, there is a strong sense of national cohesion. External support aimed at dismantling the regime’s security apparatus, rather than harming civilians, would likely be welcomed by a large segment of the population.”
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s calls to seize administrative buildings have already been received positively, Karimi adds: “These statements were received very positively by many Iranians, particularly because Trump publicly named a detained individual facing imminent execution and warned of consequences if the sentence were carried out. This focus on a concrete case resonated far more than abstract rhetoric and reinforced the perception that the regime is no longer untouchable.”
As reported, US President Donald Trump told his national security team that he would like any US military action in Iran to deliver a swift and decisive blow to the regime, but not lead to the start of a protracted war.
Meanwhile, the US has advised some of its military personnel to leave the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar amid tensions in the region.
