On the last day of February, Türkiye's Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar announced that, in line with a "historic agreement" signed between Ankara and Ashgabat, Turkmen gas supplies to Türkiye would commence on March 1. The agreement envisions the delivery of 1.3 billion cubic meters of Turkmenistan's "blue gold" by the end of the year.
The origins of negotiations on this issue date back to 1998. Türkiye was the first country to recognize Turkmenistan's independence and open an embassy in Ashgabat. In 2012, during an official visit to Türkiye, Turkmenistan's President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov highlighted the shared national, cultural, and spiritual ties between the Turkmen and Turkish peoples, as well as their rich historical and cultural heritage. A year later, Türkiye's Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources indicated the potential for Turkmen gas to be transported via the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP). This pipeline, agreed upon by Ankara and Baku, was intended to carry Azerbaijani gas to Europe through Türkiye.
Photo credit: hurriyetdailynews.com
In the 2000s, the European Union and Türkiye advocated for the Nabucco pipeline project, which aimed to transport gas from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to Europe via the South Caucasus and Türkiye. However, for various reasons, the project was not realized. Instead, a regional network was formed, combining the South Caucasus Pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum), the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (stretching from Erzurum to Greece's border), and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (traversing Greece, Albania, and into Italy). Gas began flowing from Azerbaijan to Italy through this route in 2020, reigniting discussions on integrating Turkmenistan into the project.
In 2019, a consortium of European and Chinese companies expressed readiness to invest in the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, an underwater pipeline project designed to link Turkmenbashi and Baku, with a possible extension to Kazakhstan's Tengiz gas fields. Despite Ankara's willingness to expand TANAP and the tangible prospects for doubling the capacity of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, no practical steps followed.
In 2022, Ankara emphasized the strategic importance of Turkmen gas amid Europe's energy crisis. The United States proposed replacing Russian gas in Europe with Turkmen gas, offering support for establishing a gas hub in Türkiye. In 2023, Türkiye's Ambassador to Ashgabat, Ahmet Demirok, revealed Ankara's plans to procure 300 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan over 20 years for both domestic use and export to Europe.
In the summer of 2024, SOCAR and Türkiye's BOTAŞ signed several agreements on gas supply, transport, and transit, building on an earlier bilateral accord. These agreements included provisions for transporting Turkmen gas via Azerbaijan to Türkiye.
Photo: Azertac
In early February, Turkmengaz signed an agreement with BOTAŞ to supply Turkmen gas to Türkiye via a swap deal through Iran, initially planning to deliver up to 2 billion cubic meters annually starting March 1. There are plans to increase this volume to 15 billion cubic meters per year, with an eye on the European market. According to Demirok, achieving this goal depends on the construction of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline. The Turkish ambassador described these agreements as pivotal for "the energy security of Türkiye and the entire region," reinforcing political and economic ties.
Oguzhan Akyener, Chairman of Türkiye's Center for Energy Strategy Studies and Policy, noted in an interview with Anadolu Agency that the growing energy integration within the Turkic world, Türkiye's ambition to become a natural gas trading hub, and the potential to replace Russian gas in the EU with Turkmen gas have once again brought Turkmen gas into the spotlight. According to Akyener, these supplies will bolster Türkiye's geostrategic position and its role as a gas hub, creating new opportunities for investment and trade.
In a phone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Turkmenistan's Halk Maslahaty Chairman Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov highlighted the favorable geographic position of Ashgabat and Ankara "at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, between the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf," which could unlock new opportunities for constructive partnership in the transport and logistics sectors.
On March 1, 2025, a date deemed "historic" by some analysts, Alparslan Bayraktar clarified that "Turkmenistan will supply gas to Iran, and we will receive it through the Gurbulak checkpoint on the border with Iran." The minister also reiterated the significance of constructing the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline to "increase gas purchases from Turkmenistan."
Photo: daryo.uz
The strengthening of Turkish-Turkmen ties through gas cooperation is evident. In 2024, bilateral trade amounted to $2.17 billion, with both sides expressing ambitions to boost this figure to $5 billion. The upcoming "Turkmen Export Products Exhibition" in Türkiye this year could further catalyze this growth.
Notably, during the VIII meeting of the Turkmen-Turkish Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation last week, the parties discussed next steps in the oil and gas sector. The importance of continuing dialogue within the framework of bilateral and multilateral events in Turkmenistan and Türkiye was reaffirmed.
These developments underscore the growing significance of Turkmen gas in regional geopolitics and its potential to reshape energy dynamics in Europe and beyond.
