By Tural Heybatov
In a move that underscores the growing dangers in Eurasian airspace, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has announced a ban on flights over Russia. This decision follows the downing of an Azerbaijani Airlines (AZAL) passenger plane and highlights the increasing risks civilian aviation faces amid escalating military conflicts and inadequate coordination between military and civilian authorities.
The recent tragedy, in which an AZAL aircraft was reportedly downed by air defense systems in Chechnya, has sent shockwaves through the aviation community. The incident has led EASA to implement strict restrictions, urging airlines to suspend flights to major Russian cities, including Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Rostov-on-Don, and Samara. These measures, effective until July 2025, primarily target non-EU airlines still operating flights over Russian territory, as EU carriers had already ceased operations following earlier sanctions related to the Ukraine conflict.
The European aviation authority has cited several risks as the basis for its directive. Chief among them is the ongoing war in Ukraine and the heightened likelihood of civilian aircraft becoming unintended targets of military activity. Russian air defense systems, increasingly active in response to Ukrainian drone incursions, now pose significant dangers to flights operating near international airports.
The tragic crash of the AZAL aircraft underscores these risks. In addition to direct threats from air defense activations, EASA has highlighted issues such as GPS spoofing and signal jamming near conflict zones, further complicating safe navigation for civilian flights. The advisory warns that the lack of effective coordination between Russia’s civilian and military aviation authorities exacerbates these risks, making it perilous for airlines to traverse the region’s airspace.
Reuters
The downing of the Azerbaijani Airlines plane has triggered a wave of flight suspensions across the region. AZAL, which previously operated multiple routes to Russian cities, has indefinitely suspended flights to ten destinations, including Kazan, Sochi, and Mineralnye Vody. The airline cited frequent airspace closures and increased radio interference as major factors in its decision.
Other regional carriers, including Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Air, Turkmenistan Airlines, FlyDubai, and Air Serbia, have followed suit, either halting or significantly reducing flights to Russia. Israeli airline El Al has also suspended certain routes, citing safety concerns. The loss of these international connections is further isolating Russia, compounding the challenges already faced by its aviation industry due to Western sanctions.
Russia’s aviation industry was already grappling with severe disruptions due to sanctions imposed following the invasion of Ukraine. These measures severed Russia’s direct air links with key markets in Europe, the United States, Japan, and other regions, forcing travelers to rely on hubs in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkiye, and the UAE. With the latest wave of flight suspensions, even these vital connections are now under threat.
The financial repercussions are significant. Foreign airlines have historically played a crucial role in Russia’s international passenger traffic. According to Aeroflot, foreign carriers accounted for 40% of international traffic to and from Russia in September, up from 26% in 2019. However, the loss of key international partners and reduced connectivity is leading to sharp declines in passenger volumes and revenue for Russian airlines.
In response to these challenges, Russia is increasingly relying on neighboring countries to fill the void left by Western and regional carriers. Data from Flightradar24 reveals a surge in flights from countries like Uzbekistan, Belarus, and Armenia, followed by Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. However, these alternative routes are insufficient to offset the loss of more lucrative European and American markets.
Moreover, the situation is compounded by logistical and operational challenges. Sanctions have made it difficult for Russian airlines to procure spare parts and conduct maintenance for Western-made aircraft, leading to reduced fleet availability and safety concerns. Airlines such as Aeroflot, Ural Airlines, and UTair are struggling to maintain service levels, while financial losses continue to mount.
The current crisis paints a grim picture for Russia’s aviation industry. Reduced connectivity, dwindling passenger numbers, and mounting financial losses are pushing the sector into uncharted territory. While neighboring countries are stepping in to provide limited support, their capacity to mitigate the broader impact is limited.
For Russian travelers, the situation translates into fewer travel options, longer flight times, and higher ticket prices. For the aviation sector, it signals the need for urgent adaptation and strategic reorientation to survive in an increasingly hostile international environment.
As the global aviation community continues to adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape, the case of Russia serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of the industry. With military conflicts and political tensions showing no signs of abating, the future of aviation over Eurasian skies remains uncertain.
EASA’s restrictions, while aimed at ensuring safety, underscore the broader geopolitical divide reshaping global air travel. For Russia, the path forward will require navigating not only operational challenges but also the larger political and economic currents that have isolated its aviation industry from much of the world.
