Uzbekistan’s Economy Surges Past 2025 Forecasts

Uzbekistan’s economic growth is exceeding earlier projections for 2025, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s 2026 budget message.

Inflation is expected to stay below 8 percent, while unemployment is projected at 5 percent, The Caspian Post reports, citing Uzbek media.

Household consumption is forecast to grow by 7-7.5 percent, an increase of 1-1.5 percentage points from previous estimates.

This year, the ministry expects gross domestic product to grow by 7 percent, compared with the earlier projection of 6 percent. GDP is projected to reach UZS 1.72 quadrillion (previously UZS 1.67 quadrillion), with GDP per capita rising to $3,589.

Inflation is forecast at 7.8-7.9 percent, below the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s earlier estimate of 8 percent for year-end. The unemployment projection remains unchanged at 5 percent (compared to 5.5 percent in 2024).

Market services continue to be the main driver of economic growth, with an expected expansion of 13.3-15.4 percent. Industrial growth is set to accelerate to 6.7 percent from 6.1 percent, while construction growth will slow to 12.7 percent from 14.2 percent. Agriculture is expected to increase by 4.1 percent.

Economic growth is also supported by rising global prices for Uzbekistan’s key export commodities, including gold. This is contributing to higher export volumes and a reduction in the current account deficit.

In addition, real household consumption is projected to rise by 7-7.5 percent, which is 1-1.5 percentage points higher than previously forecast.

This increase is driven by a surge in cross-border remittances (up 17-18 percent) due to the diversification of labor migration destinations and stronger exchange rates in recipient countries, faster credit growth in the economy, and higher indexation of wages for public employees, pensions, allowances, scholarships and other social payments.